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17 comments on In Situ retorting of oil shale

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memmel on July 5, 2006 - 2:31am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Actually I've come increasingly to the conclusion that we can not prevent major oil supply disruption with any alternative approach. In fact sour heavy crude won't even work. Were not only addicted to oil but were addicted to light sweet oil.

Right now were not even capably of timely switch over of our refining capacity to handle the heaver crudes since light sweet has peaked. This will get far worse before it get better if ever. This refining disruption actually over shadows overall oil production and in fact by the time we get this strait we will be pass peak oil. Once we start in terminal decline its impossible to bring online the millions of barrels of day of production to stay even much less reverse the decline. I'm sure all these alternative resource will have there own refining issues just like the orinco heavy oil, tar sands and other heavy oil deposits.
Sure we can refine it but we need special equipment.

The point is I think we are already past the real peak which is the maximum of oil and refinery capacity for the oil which was light sweet. Were never going to gain with difficult to refine heavy sour oils and depletion much less bring online things like oil shells in the volume needed to offset depletion.

Finally the problem is not oil supply its major and pernicious disruptions of the oil supply.

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odograph on July 5, 2006 - 8:24am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
For what it's worth, I think that hangs together in a logical sense ... time will tell.
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LevinK on July 5, 2006 - 10:34am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
From what I've read upgrading our refining capacity should be much easier than finding new sources of oil... but maybe this could be the immediate problem in the medium term, after which depletion will probably affect sour/heavy crude too.

I think RR should have more information on this issue.

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TJ on July 5, 2006 - 11:22am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Easy is a relative term.  For very light, sweet crude, you need a fractionating column and not much else.  This runs at a medium temperature and low pressure and is definitely not exotic tech.  As the crude gets heavier, you start adding unit operations, cat crackers, akylators, cokers, thermal crackers; most of which run at higher temps and pressures.  Same goes for sour crude; you need hydrotreaters or hydrocrackers.  Heavy sour crude could require two or three times the amount of equipment than light, and correspondingly as much investment.  Upgrades would require years; and that's assuming that enough of the required contruction expertise still exists in the U.S.

So the above commenter is right in the sense that exotic refineries take a long lead time.  If the peak is between now and 2010, it may be too late.

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17 comments on In Situ retorting of oil shale

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