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121 comments on DrumBeat: July 4, 2006

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AlanfromBigEasy on July 4, 2006 - 11:49am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Even with $35 oil, I thought there was an overemphasis on rail links to airports (TPTB like them, they can think of themselves taking rail to the airport and avoiding that hassle).  In reality, 1/4 to 2/3 of the airport rail pax worked there (varies by airport).

However, high oil prices will not "kill aviation" directly.  At $35/barrel, refined oil was ~10% of airline costs.  Airline fuel economy has been steadily climbing per pax-mile (SW went from 45 to 54 pax-mile/gallon in the last 5 years).

The 787 will use 20% less than the 767 it replaces.  The 2012 EIS replacement for the 737 should use 25+% less fuel.

I am flying to the Houston Peak Oil conference for $99.10 RT from New Orleans.  Add a $40 fuel surcharge and I will still fly.  At 50 pax-mile/gallon, I will use about 12 gallons.  At a future 75 pax-mile/gallon, about 8 gallons.

The value of flying is high enough that it will not be easily displaced.  Home heating, daily commuting and other oil uses will likely be displaced first IMHO.

What will "kill aviation" for the general public is a prolonged, severe recession/depression with declining real wages.  But almost everyone will still fly "on occasion", even if only once every few years.

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solar1 on July 4, 2006 - 4:36pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I agree that flying will linger.  People need to "get together" from time-to-time, even if the intervals are several years.  The government with its supportive policies of no fuel taxes for jet fuel, provided airport infrastructure, radar facilities and revolving bankruptcy court support has kept it competitive with the automobile.  Russian air transportation is the type of model that we will probably evolve into.  

Right now people can replace most airplane trips quite easily.  The use of VOIP, Voice Over Internet Protocol, telephone service provides unlimited talk time anywhere/anytime in the USA.  See sunrocket.com to get the idea.  You can use web cams, home entertainment systems, to enhance voice contact.  Documents can be scanned in, then emailed/faxed.  Conference calling can bring multiple parties into the loop.  DVD disks made from Camcorders can be mailed.

With a little electronic hardware most airline flights can be eliminated easily and cheaply, once we warm up to the idea.  TODers should use this approach if possible.  

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121 comments on DrumBeat: July 4, 2006

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