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317 comments on DrumBeat: July 6, 2006

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odograph on July 6, 2006 - 11:37am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I understand that this is your perspective.
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step back on July 6, 2006 - 11:46am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Ponzi defrauded new investors (new devotees) by mis-informing them that the money older investors received came from profits recouped off of real investments when in fact it was just the money of new investors (new entrants into his system) being passed forward to older entrants.

Of course this sounds strangely similar to our US Social Security system.

Does it correspond to other parts of our "system"?
What other parts are built on mis-information and fraud?

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ET on July 6, 2006 - 11:56am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Ponzi, Pyramid, same basic animal. One criterion for identifying a 'Pyramid' scheme is the proportion of 'product' that is moved, as opposed to simply expanding the pyramid by recruiting more suckers.

Seems to me that the Ponzi scheme idea is only partly true and only on a long time frame. Product is being delivered as long as we have the cheap energy for creating it. As cheap energy wanes off, the Ponzi component of the whole shebang gets larger because more is promised and less delivered.

It's really more of a 'Squander' scheme, with the empty promise of being able to squander endlessly into the future.

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odograph on July 6, 2006 - 12:04pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
There is an interesting line between the two.  Market systems have always allowed, as part of the game, for the seller to make his best case for value, even as the buyer denigrates it.

In the market 5K years ago:

Trader: I have these jars of excellent imported wine, I will sell them for just 6 coins.

Merchant: They smell like they're starting to go off to me.  I'll be lucky to move them before they go sour. 3 coins.

Trader: Are you serious?  I should take these to the palace, for they are truly suited for kings ... 5 coins.

Merchant: You know, the local stuff is getting much better.  My customers are starting to prefer it.  4 coins.

... and so one.

If you ask me, they "analysts" on CNBC in the afternoon are just playing the role of "Trader," one (again) as old as civilization.  They are putting the best possible face on their products.

We've actually decided (as a society) what constitutes a scam, and embodied that in a whole series of laws and institutions.

Some people want to throw that over and say it's all a scam ... while I think it's useful to distinguish from things that are merely overvalued or oversold.

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step back on July 6, 2006 - 12:38pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Traders of 5K years ago did not possess technology of neuro-linguistic programming (NLP), nor did they possess "mass" media for simultaneously programming the masses all at once.
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odograph on July 6, 2006 - 12:46pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
If that stuff was so good, I'd be out driving my Chevy Avalanche right now ;-)  ... and neither of us would be at TOD.

Maybe we have enough generations history dealing with swarmy salesmen to develop neural countermeasures.

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markincalgary on July 6, 2006 - 1:29pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
"Maybe we have enough generations history dealing with swarmy salesmen to develop neural countermeasures."

You do. I do. But advertising still has some sway with us. And a large fraction of society's neural countermeasures aren't nearly as well developed.

Heck, my university educated mother can't resist buying a new household product after a new round of advertising hits the television. And I don't think she's atypical.

Honestly, if it didn't work, do you think companies would spend billions on advertising? Check out No Logo by Naomi Klein.

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fallout on July 7, 2006 - 8:49am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Most people still are.
"There ain't no peak oil, it's just them dang oil companies gouging us!"
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Mad Maxout on July 7, 2006 - 11:59pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Of course, the oil companies are milking the Oil Peak! It would be no fun otherwise, in accord with that Jay Hanson character. Jay Hanson is the definitive Doomer. Doomer or not, I'm sure glad - and gladder by the day - that I never had kids for their sake. After all, it will get harder to go about daily missions as time goes by.

While the Cuba powerdown is romanticised, an alternative situation can exist in the form of North Korea. Not good! As if Cuba wasn't bad enough, North Korea is a micro-case of America but with capitalism - only making things worse. Get ready for a looooong ride doooooooooooown! We are misappropiating resources to the military NOW. To be honest, I don't want to see that wreck from a cockpit!

Things will not be good during ANY "powerdown". It seems that a powerdown does require a "command economy" but the way it's done make a giant difference. Fidel did maneage a "powerdown" though admittedly not optimally. Much more likely our own powerdown will be way sub-optimal. Democracy, like capitalism takes a powerup case, so all bets are off.

It's no wonder why doomers love the oil peak topic! PO allows for doomers to have fun. It is up to us and people to remediate it like Y2K but it will be harder by far. Can PO be remediated? We will sure find out, most likely the hard way, as TSHTF.

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317 comments on DrumBeat: July 6, 2006

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