<DrumBeat: July 11, 2006 The Oil Drum "Deeply Troubling" (or, wanna have a laugh/cry...?)>

118 comments on The Stability of Iraq

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Jon Kutz on July 11, 2006 - 12:22pm Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
"Can anyone see any way that this is not going to continue sliding into an ever more violent civil war?"

Only one. If there were no more Iraqis left, none at all, there would be no civil war and no attacks on oil facilities.
Now, if we start down the back side of Hubbert's Curve and the USA, China and the EU all need the Iraqi oil bad enough ? Who knows how far one or all three might go to preserve the economic status quo ?

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LJR on July 11, 2006 - 1:21pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Iraq has to be partitioned into three independent countries in a manner similar to India in the 40's.  It's not a perfect solution but it's about the only one that has a chance of creating some stability.
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tate423 on July 11, 2006 - 1:28pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Right except for the Kurds in the North who would have no oil money and still living in the hillsides.
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Euan Mearns on July 11, 2006 - 1:54pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Much of the Iraqi oil lies in the North and the South - so the Kurds would be OK - apart from they are left with the daunting problem of exporting oil either N through Turkey - who are kind of hostile to the overall concept of Kurdistan - or South through what is currently Iraq.  I'm not sure that the Sunnis actaully get left with anything - which may be one of their current concerns.
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GreyZone on July 11, 2006 - 4:16pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Turkey worries that an independent Kurdish state on their border would attempt to incite separatist Kurds inside Turkey. That's a bit of a political hot potato there.
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Dragonfly41 on July 11, 2006 - 5:30pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I don't think Iran would like to see an Independent Kurdistan either.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurdish_people#Kurds_in_Iran

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Jack Greene on July 11, 2006 - 5:30pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
GreyZone,

And the Iranians with their sizeable minority. But the Kurds did secure some oil for themselves.

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xironman on July 11, 2006 - 2:23pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Tate,

  The Kurds have place themselves with opportunity to take Kirkuk and it's oil fields.  The Sunni's feel like the ones left out in the cold (no oil) in the west.  But if they got their act together and listened to the posters here, they would probably be on the largest amount of "undiscovered" oil in the ME out there.  That is of course if it did not follow the pattern of the Empty Quarter.

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Rose Selavy on July 12, 2006 - 2:49am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
In a partition of Iraq, the Kurds would probably take the town of Kirkuk and its oilfields. The Shiites would get the southern fields around Basra, and the Sunnis the northern fields around Mosul. I agree that Turkey would probably not let the Kurds export oil through their territory, so it would most likely pass to the south through Shia territory.

If Turkey came down hard on the Iraqi Kurds, they likely lose any chance to join the EU, although I am not sure how big a disincentive that would be for the Turks.

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alan on July 11, 2006 - 6:23pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Why stop with Iraq.
http://www.armedforcesjournal.com/2006/06/1833899
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Woilf on July 12, 2006 - 4:04pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Well, then, if we're going to go to all that effort, let's also adjust the U.S./Mexico and U.S. Canadian borders, too. CA goes back to MX, and "54-40 or fight," wasn't that the chant?

;o)

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118 comments on The Stability of Iraq

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