It seems logical to assume that a reduction in attacks on teh pipelines by insurgents, and reduced deaths by US and Iraqi forces, have a strong correlation.  The simple assumption is that the insurgency, and its indiscriminate attacks on infrastructure, is weakening. If oil wealth is distributed with a reasonable formula, it seems likely that increasing amounts will flow... but, flow will be limited to existing wells; new investments are not likely any time soon.

OTOH, civil strife is increasing. Sunnis remain very unhappy at losing control, and so far look little appeased. The gov seems to be trying to rein in the militias, including Sadr's, clearly a prerequisite to any peace.

I was quite surprised to see polls showing a solid majority of Iraqis happy with the result so far.  Maybe they are more hopeful than we are.