<DrumBeat: July 9, 2006 The Oil Drum UK Energy Trends, Coal>

125 comments on Oil Price Poll

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jim burke on July 9, 2006 - 4:12pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
There seems to have been a dearth of articles and commentary lately about the supposed gush of new, offshore oil coming online. (Though it's possible there was something in a Drumbeat which I missed.)

This is crucial, in that offshore oil is the only thing which might prolong the "wobbly plateau" and/or keep prices from inexorably rising.

Without a real offshore gush, Deffeyes is probably right about the timing of peak.

Any thoughts on this?

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steverino on July 9, 2006 - 6:53pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
jim, i'd like to comment on your observations ,as well as oilholics, above, i was looking back at a post on chris strebowski of ODAC. he predicted 3.6 mbbls. of new oil production in 2006. yet , when we look at actual production for the year , it's flat...so...it's probably that production decline is offsetting these new additions. that does not bode well for all the new production that is going to boost our total output, in my mind
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peakearl on July 10, 2006 - 12:50am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Chris Skrebowski made a significant error in computing type III decline rates. He ignored increases in production that occurred as a result of producing what was previous excess capacity. He calculated the decline rate as the net production change from year 1 to year 2 minus the new production onstream that year. However, if for example 1 mbpd is produced from former excess capacity, this then causes a 1 mbpd underestimate in type III decline rates. His reference case is 2004 to 2005, and going forward bases his estimations from that intial number. I believe that at least 1 mbpd of former spare caacity during that time was produced, which leads to big errors.
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jkissing on July 10, 2006 - 1:20am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
1mbpd sounds low to me - all opec, not just SA, suddenly opened every spigot they could find.
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peakearl on July 10, 2006 - 11:54am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I was being conservative. It is surprising to me that he made this critical ommission which can completely alter his conclusions, and especially that no one seems to have picked it up. Otherwise it is a fantastic study.
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jkissing on July 11, 2006 - 10:21am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I agree he is doing great work, hope he keeps it up. And, good catch on your part.

It seems he could omit those few opec countries that were holding excess capacity and compute a world-wide depletion rate for all others, then extend this rate to those omitted. Are his numbers sufficiently detailed to allow others to make this adjustment?

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125 comments on Oil Price Poll

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