This argument comes up all the time. So-and-so said we peaked when we hadn't.

It is like saying France and Italy are in the world cup final; who will win?

There have been thirty other teams in the tournament. Each team had supporters predicting a victory. Each team was eliminated. All thirty predictions were wrong.

So obviously neither France nor Italy will win.

Most of the analysts that say ,"This is the fifth time we have been warned of peaking oil" are the same guys who said we would never see oil over $50/barrel.
The market is telling us what is happening.