Also see Lynch's June 6th, 2003 presentation

COPING WITH OIL PRICE VOLATILITY: Welcome to the Roller Coaster (warning: pdf file)

In particular, see the last two slides. The first of these is titled "If pessimists are right" and the last is titled "If I'm right."

There are several other papers & presentations you might want to peruse.  They are all here: http://www.energyseer.com/Presentations.html

Thanks for all the help.