267 comments on DrumBeat: July 9, 2006
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267 comments on DrumBeat: July 9, 2006
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Indeed, at least in the U.S. (if not the rest of the world), the power grid has so far proven to be very fragile. Every year, it's knocked out locally by storms. And some of the bigger weather events can effectively remove the grid from a region (Katrina, the Columbus Day storm of 1962, etc.), requiring extensive reconstruction (which, incidentally, requires quite a lot of fossil fuels to accomplish).
The grid, by the way, is particularly vulnerable to electromagnetic pulse and other forms of attack. These days, a power outage means all kinds of economic disruption, largely due to shut-down computers and related networks. A blackout in 1956 had a lot less of an effect on commerce and day-to-day life than one in 2006, and a blackout in 1926 had even less of an impact than in 1956. It is probably unwise to increase our dependence on "the grid" any more than we already have.
Backup sources for critical infrastructure is not a bad idea.
Indeed, it is quite labor intensive.
However, it is interesting to note that to replace things like power poles (which topple rather readily extreme weather) requires gasoline-powered equipment (transportation being one), not to mention the road infrastructure that's also dependent on a large input of fossil fuels for maintenance and repair. Roads that, incidentally, can also be broken by the same storms that ruin the power grid.
And, of course, to make new poles requires cutting trees, transport, processing, etc., generally done by people who reach their job locations via gasoline-powered vehicles...
Hmmm... A supply chain issue: At what price point will energy costs seriously begin to slow down repair and maintenance of the power grid in the U.S.?
ALL economic activity requires oil. How many gallons to write Microsoft Windows XX ? But labor was the dominant cost for repairs. My informed guess, 90%.
you also left out the Northeastern ice storm of 1998, which many people involved in Y2K considered a fine foretaste of failing systems under extreme conditions.
As for EMP, Congressman Bartlett presented a fine overview - the man really is quite the responsible pessimist. Of course, all of this is so 1980 that the nostalgia gets to be a bit much at times - I remember the 10 bomb scenario, where the Soviets would so utterly cripple America's oil infrastructure (imagine a well planned Katrina/Rita in terms of non-functioning oil infrastructure) that the choice would be to accept their blackmail (taking over Iran/Saudi Arabia, etc.) or mutual suicide.
I think much of the point comes down to redundancy and maintenance - things which a profit oriented mindset tends to scoff at, until the system fails. Luckily, the American government currently has CEOs running it, unlike Germany, which has a chemistry PhD as Chancellor - strangely, various German systems do not seem to be failing in any noticeable way.
To keep with the theme here - I don't think chemistry is a failed paradigm either, but if you wish to discuss about CEOs and their paradigms, well, peak oil is a fine example of how many CEOs look at the world - maximum profit without regard to the long term is so much better than social responsibility. Tears of Allah indeed.
The frightening thing about this is that, since the intention would be to generate an EMP and not necessarily cause much damage with the explosion, an EMP bomb could be transported anywhere and left to detonate (no suicide bombers required), say a park, garage, or neighborhood, and the EMP would still have a crippling effect on a fairly broad region.
In other words, the 10 nuke EMP scenario was meant to do two different things - avoid the massive deaths which would make retaliation with a massive U.S. strike revenge, not suicide, and to so cripple an industrial society that apart from committing suicide, it had no other options.
I may add, this scenario was explicitly designed to remove the oil refineries in California, the Gulf Coast, and the Northeast - never think we are talking about new ideas here, except for the occasional brilliant insight or neglected observation being brought to light.
This fairly elegant Cold War nightmare hinged on oil, as did much of the late 70s and 80s strategic war planning.
And the major reason for EMP becoming so critical was the defection of a Russian pilot with his MiG to Japan in 1975? - the plane still used vacuum tubes, which seemed incredibly primitive or even a deception, until someone realized that this meant the MiG was immune to EMP. To be honest, I'm still not sure what the final verdict on the MiG was - deception, primitive, or proof that the Soviets would fight dirty by fighting clean in the ionosphere, so to speak.
These devices do not put out sufficient RF energy to cause widespead damage. The largest devices constructed (about 2 tons) are capable of affect an area less than a 1km radius.
>say a park, garage, or neighborhood, and the EMP would still have a crippling effect on a fairly broad region.
This is incorrect. for a EMP device to be affective it must be detenated high above its target. These devices radiate RF energy in line of sight. if the pulse is blocked by a hill, building or other obstructions, it cannot affect electronic devices behind the obstruction. The RF energy produced by an EMP is mostly limited the lower bands ( < 300 Mhz) which limits its pentration through obstructions.
The stories hyped by the media, sci-fi, etc have exaggerated the potential of EMP. The story goes that a terrorist group gets a hold of a tactical nuke and detenates it high above the US disabling all of the country's infrastructure. Such a device would not be powerful enough to do this level of distruction. Even a large Multi-megaton device would not be affective enough, since these devices are implosion devices that pre-ionize the surrounding air which shorts out most of the RF energy before it reaches the ground.
http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/report/1988/CM2.htm
To disable the entire US infrastructure it would probably require a dozen or more medium yield devices deployed regionally. This would not be possible accept for the large nuclear powers (US, Russia and possibly China).