The Oil Drum | DrumBeat: August 10, 2006

337 comments on DrumBeat: August 10, 2006

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RickD on August 10, 2006 - 9:20am

This question is mainly for westexas and was buried in yesterday's open forum:

Which countries are in the top 10 exporting countries?

Thanks in advance,
Rick

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westexas on August 10, 2006 - 9:39am

This is a good article that has a list of the top exporters (in 2004). If you look at current EIA crude + condensate data, seven of the top ten are showing declines since December. The other three are flat.

http://www.energybulletin.net/18475.html

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RickD on August 10, 2006 - 10:03am

Canada is not on that list. Are they not an net exporter? Or are they just not in the top 14?

Rick

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westexas on August 10, 2006 - 11:54am

Canada is a big exporter on the West side, big importer on the East side.

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Asebius on August 10, 2006 - 1:27pm

Yes, Canada is a net exporter. It just doesn't export that much on a net basis. Not enough to put it in the top 14.

Of course, listening to Canadian leaders lately, one could be excused if they were led to think otherwise.

Our prime minister recently talked up the nation as a new "emerging enery superpower".

Who knows, someday we may overtake tiny Qatar!

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Oil CEO on August 10, 2006 - 2:23pm

For 2004, which is the last complete data set from the EIA, Canada comes in at number 16, with 840,000 barrels per day of exports. In 2005 their exports were 820,000 barrels per day, but I can't compare this to any other countries, since Mexico is the only other country that the EIA reports 2005 numbers for.

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JustZisGuy on August 10, 2006 - 9:36pm

Huh? According to this EIA page in May 2006 Canada exported 1.868 million barrels of crude oil per day to the United States alone!

Do oil sands not count?

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Oil CEO on August 10, 2006 - 11:32pm

Canadian tar sands production is over 1 million bpd currently, it is counted as part of their total crude production of approximately 2.5 million barrels per day. Add to this RPG,NGPL, and other liquids and you get 3.135 mmbpd "all liquids" daily production in 2004. Subtract 2.294 mmbpd consumption in 2004 gives us 841,000 bpd net exports. These are EIA's numbers, my math.

BP's 2005 numbers for Canadian production and consumption basically match these. BP gives 1.6 mmbpd exports in 2005 - matching that figure you found of 1.8 mmbpd in 2006.

Houston, we have a problem. The only explanation I can come up with is that they are receiving imports of approximately 800,000 bpd from the US. Didn't Westexas say that was the case above somewhere?

Anybody know?

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porsena on August 11, 2006 - 12:31am

BP's 2005 figures for Canada (mmbpd):
Production - 3.047
Consumption - 2.241
Difference is 806, not far off the 841 figure.

But Canada imports 934 mmbpd (not counting product imports), mainly from Europe. Added to the 806, that gives 1.74 mmbpd as exports. This is intermediate between the two figures above.

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Oil CEO on August 11, 2006 - 12:58am

I think that is exactly the million barrels we were looking for. Thank you.

Now for extra credit, can you explain why? When you say Europe, I'm guessing that's mainly the North Sea? or Russia?

Refining ability? To send the product to the States?

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porsena on August 11, 2006 - 1:18am

Mainly from the North Sea. Remember that almost all Canada's imports are consumed in Quebec and the Atlantic Provinces.

Product exports Canada->US in 2005 were 558 mbpd on top of the 1643 mbpd crude exports, according to BP. Sorry about the units mixup above.

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Oil CEO on August 11, 2006 - 5:49am

Remember that almost all Canada's imports are consumed in Quebec and the Atlantic Provinces.

What are you, crazy:) How was I supposed to remember that? I didn't even know it to remember it. Seriously. You should post more often here. We really, really like this kind of information. At least I do. Screw up the units all you want, we'll fix'em later.

Why can't Quebec and the Atlantic Provinces get their stuff via pipeline from Western Canada? That's the part I'm unclear about. It really makes more sense to ship crude from Europe rather than pipe it from next door?

Is it possible to make this equation more efficient?

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AlanfromBigEasy on August 11, 2006 - 1:48pm

It is more efficient (net transportation wise) to supply the Upper West (US) & Midwest from Alberta pipelines and Eastern Canada from the sea than vica versa. Look at a map.

New Orleans would like to barge more oil products up-river instead though.

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Oil CEO on August 11, 2006 - 4:21pm

Absolutely. So the next question is, why do we as intelligent individuals, as a society, allow The Powers That Be to manipulate the numbers so that things can always be something they are not.

We complain about transparency. It is time to clean up our own back yard.

Canada - (and my beef is not with Canada, it is with us) - Canada exports 840,000 bpd, not 1,840,000. Or, conversely, it does both. But we need a standard for reporting these numbers. Else the manipulators will run circles around us. They will use any number they want, whenever it suits their purposes.

Are we on the same team?

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Oil CEO on August 11, 2006 - 12:12am

Thanks for pointing that out, by the way. You have a future here.

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nrgyman2000 on August 10, 2006 - 5:58pm

The link below

http://energikrise.blogspot.com/2006/07/produsenter-og-eksportrer-av.html

leads to a Norwegian blog that recently posted some diagrams (in English) that shows the worlds 10 biggest producers of hydrocarbons (oil and natural gas) as of 2005 baseed upon BP Statistical Review 2006.

the second diagram shows the world 7 top net exporters of hydrocarbons (oil and natural gas)

Hope it can be of some help.

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mw on August 11, 2006 - 3:37am

According to Stats Canada, run rate was 790,000 bbl/day total export Dec 2005.

Breakdown by US destination also available:
http://www.neb-one.gc.ca/Statistics/CrudeOil_PetroleumProducts/index_e.htm#Year2005

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Oil CEO on August 10, 2006 - 12:34pm

I stacked the countries to make the graph readable, obviously they are not in order, but you should be able to figure out the top 14. I have to update this for 2004 numbers(maybe 2005, I forget what is currently available). I might actually get around to this today, in which case, I'll list the actual numbers.

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davet on August 10, 2006 - 12:58pm

Interesting. How come they add up to <55%?

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Oil CEO on August 10, 2006 - 1:17pm

45% of oil in the world in consumed domestically. 55% is exported. And this number has been rising since 1988. Although I'll have to update this to know the short-term trend.

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Triffin on August 10, 2006 - 4:01pm

So therefore; "net export capacity" is
still rising if I'm reading your
graph correctly ??

Triffin ..

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Oil CEO on August 10, 2006 - 4:36pm

The long-term trend has been rising.

The percentages for the last 6 years on record:

1998- 54.1%
1999- 53.4%
2000- 54.1%
2001- 53.6%
2002- 52.3%
2003- 53.5%
2004- 54.4%

So it looks like net export capacity is currently on a plateau if you look at last 6 years, rising if you use last 3.

Keep in mind the last data is for 2004, 20 months old. If it has been falling since that point, it is unlikely that it is lower than 52%.

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Samsara on August 10, 2006 - 4:38pm

The graph I would like to see is country by country of the top 10 say, one line production, the other internal consumption.

How many of those lines cross? Hence no exports.

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Oil CEO on August 10, 2006 - 4:50pm

I'm not sure what you are saying. The top ten all export between 1.5 and 9 million barrels per day, which is the difference between their production and their internal consumption. So no lines ever cross, else they wouldn't be exporting. If you can elaborate, I can make graph.

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Samsara on August 10, 2006 - 7:05pm

Take Indonesia for example, it's production line on the graph went up from the lower left hand corner to the upper right. Their internal consumption did the same. UNTIL the lines crossed and now(even though their still OPEC?) the are a net importer.

See?

Most people are not aware that countries that produce oil actually use it themselves. (As stupid as that sounds, I believe it to be true).

John

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Oil CEO on August 10, 2006 - 7:54pm

Right, but they are not in the top ten. Indonesia is a rare example. In my graph above I included them in the "other" category, since, as you point out, their exports have gone negative.

The top 17 exporters ratios are relatively stable. The remaining 20 have changed over the last twenty years, but mostly in order. If I did a line-graph like this I think it would just look like spaghetti.

I'll play with the numbers later and see if I can come up with something.

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moreoilplease on August 10, 2006 - 1:18pm

It's exports / consumption. These countries also use some of the oil. (thats at least I my guess at why)

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davet on August 10, 2006 - 1:49pm

Exports -- missed that. Thanks!

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nrgyman2000 on August 10, 2006 - 6:05pm

The link below leads to a Norwegian blog with diagrams (in English)

http://energikrise.blogspot.com/2006/06/utvikling-i-global-netto-oljeeksport.html

illustrating (diagram clickable for larger view) the development in net oil exports, by country, for the years 1985 - 2005 based upon BP Statistical Review 2006. Seems like net oil exports has seen little growth since 2003.

Hope it is useful.

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