IMO, we are in a temporary period of stability, before another drop in available net oil exports--and another round of bidding for declining exports.  

I fail to see how we can expect to see rising net export capacity when the EIA is reporting falling production among the top exporters, and we have concurrent reports of rapidly rising consumption in most of the exporting countries.

Total US petroleum imports are up year over year, but three-fourths of the 2006 weekly import numbers (four week running average) are below the 12/30/05 number, while oil prices have been trading in a range of 15% to 30% higher than late 2005.  The two uptrend price cycles this year correspond to import declines.  IMO, refiners had to bid the price up to keep the petroleum coming.

Right now, the US, China and Europe are primarily bidding against regions like Africa.  Soon, the US, China and Europe will primarily be bidding against each other.