The Oil Drum | So who do we believe?

109 comments on So who do we believe?

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eric blair on August 22, 2006 - 12:07am

OPEC will increase oil supply out of respect for Bush
Bush said today that he would bring down gasoline prices by creating enough political good will with oil-producing nations that they would increase their supply of crude. "I would work with our friends in OPEC to convince them to open up the spigot, to increase the supply. Use the capital that my administration will earn, with the Kuwaitis or the Saudis, and convince them to open up the spigot." Implicit in his comments was a criticism of the Clinton administration as failing to take advantage of the good will that the US built with Kuwait and Saudi Arabia during the Persian Gulf war in 1991. Also implicit was that as the son of the president who built the coalition that drove the Iraqis out of Kuwait, Mr. Bush would be able to establish ties on a personal level that would persuade oil-producing nations that they owed the US something in return.

http://www.ontheissues.org/Celeb/More_George_W__Bush_Budget_&_Economy.htm

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rwmcalister on August 22, 2006 - 3:57am

How long has Bush been in office? Why hasn't he created this good will capital up to now so that now he need only ask and the Saudis and Kuwaitis will gladly open the spigots? Oh, that's right--good will toward the U.S. by the ME OPEC nations will be created by our threatening Iran. Sorry, I forgot how reality works.

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mbkennel on August 22, 2006 - 4:51pm

Actually that might work. (OK, this is Cheney/Rumsfeld we're talking about, so scratch that). But this is the idea....

The Saudi and Kuwaiti elite (Sunni) have large Shiite minorities---the Shia of Saudi Arabia all happen to be in oil producing areas---and really don't want Iran pressuring them and causing rebellious ideas among their disadvantaged minorities.

That's why they supported Saddam against Iran in the 1980s---that little invasion of Kuwait wasn't in the plan---and especially why they were against invading Iraq this time. Because they knew the Arab Shia would take over in Iraq and that would give other people "bad ideas".

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Oily Bill on August 22, 2006 - 4:10am

I'm sure that our Hawk-eyed crew spotted that this profound utterance was made WAY back in June 2000.... not much sign of success or build up of good will since then !

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alistairC on August 22, 2006 - 5:09am

Indeed... Peace on earth, goodwill to all men.

If it turns out, retrospectively, that Saudi Arabia still currently has excess capacity, and could open the spigot if they wanted (and who can say that they coudn't?)...

then this current "oil crisis" will be seen, by future historians, as due exclusively to the ineptitude and adventurism of the Bush administration.

For better or for worse!

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Darwinian on August 22, 2006 - 9:12am

When are these fools going to wake up and smell the coffee? Saudi Arabia has no spare capacity. They have no spigots to open because they are already opeaned all the way. And they are working like hell to create new spigots to open because the ones they have now are just not producing as much as they once did.

Yet the President and many others believe the lie that they are deliberately cutting back on production because of lack of buyers. Hell, let them lob off about five bucks off the price and see how many buyers they have.

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TechGuy on August 22, 2006 - 3:51pm

>Yet the President and many others believe the lie that they are deliberately cutting back on production because of lack of buyers. Hell, let them lob off about five bucks off the price and see how many buyers they have.

The Flip side of the coin says that the President is indeed well aware of PO and knows very well that KSA is "maxed out". After All Matt Simmons was apart of the President's energy counsel. Cheney was also in the loop. The President believes that any direct acknowledgement will trigger a panic. For one, such a speech would destablize the ME further, possiblity resulting in the overthrow of House of Saud that suddenly ends all KSA oil exports (eg 1979 Iranian revolution). That certainly would not be an improvement. The US now imports 60% of its oil from oversea. What do you think would happen if 10% to 25% of Oil imports disappear with in the next 30 days? Absolute chaos.

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