How hot is the Gulf compared to last year? Surely that is the important factor as that will effect how stong any storm in the GOM will grow.
Both the Caribbean and the Gulf currently have very favourable conditions for hurricane development (sea temps are 29-30 degs) The slow storm season has allowed temps to rise.

The problem so far has been for systems to reach the Gulf without being ripped apart by shear (which could still happen to TD 5). A storm that makes it to the Gulf could intensify rapidly.