348 comments on DrumBeat: August 24, 2006
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348 comments on DrumBeat: August 24, 2006
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GAIA Host Collective
Which brings up the question: Are TODers mildly depressed?...;o)
The winning combination seems to be to have money, but be a total tight-ass with it, and yes have the basic lack of consideration for others, but the main thing is, a high level of skill in manipulating others. You have to enjoy getting into people's minds and manipulating them for your own ends or amusement without the slightest twinge of guilt over how you may be ruining their life, health, etc.
If you really want to make it with the ladies, think Sociopath. Not the stupid kind that eventually gets caught and thrown in prison, the smarter kind that goes on and on and leaves a wide wake of havoc well-sprinkled with the bodies and souls of your victems.
That, in Amurrika, is Mr. Perfect.
I like this site. I wish it had been there when I first got the word!
It's possible to keep an eye on energy issues without commiting to a single energy future.
This is an interesting and plausible hypothesis.
But since it compensate for the "tendency to maintain denial" that would mean that there is an "optimal" level of doomerosity which has some chance to match reality.
Control???
WHICH control?
WHOSE control?
I didn't know there was "control" at TOD.
So YOU are "under control", mmmm...
I wonder then who is controling the controler.
Of course, it's kind of hard to tell online. On the Internet, no one knows you're a dog, and all that.
I think that the doomerism(?) extends well beyond the PO community, and that it has both psychological and sociological causes. If you go into an inner city neighborhood, or a poor slum on the outskirts of the city, or any homeless camp, you will run into a significant number of people who are disheartened, defeated, and personally doomed. This is best evidenced in the acting out of the youth of the inner city. What have they got to do besides deal drugs? College? They ain't going to no college. They'll be lucky to finish high school. And they know it. In the past few years this feeling has crept out of the ghettos and into middle class and even some upper class areas. People increasingly have less and less opportunities. They are more constrained in life. This leads many to depression and defeatism. Projected outward, it can become doomerism. Not only that, but doom would have a few benefits -the overhaul of society, starting from scratch. Loss of constraints. More opportunities. I think doomerism and defeatism are two sides of the same coin. As someone once said, the difference between suicide and homicide is the direction of the impulse.
Take this with a grain of salt please. That's my admittedly unprofessional analysis.
... so remember, if you can't be "honcho" happy, there's always "Buddhist" happy. (And Buddhist happy might require a little less energy per capita ;-)
http://willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2006/02/page/2/
I happened to visit a Buddhist Temple a couple days ago, which why I mentioned it. There is a self-guided audio tour, and a cafeteria for a vegetarian lunch. It was a nice experience. I did notice that the Temple didn't seem to have bike racks though ;-/
I grew up in that area, interesting to see the neighborhood tip toward an asian and Buddhist community ... great strip mall food!
And the other scenarios you mentioned are also correct. Hopefully though, by the time the sun goes nova we'll have figured out the means to star travel. A ticket to Alpha Centauri anyone?
Catastrophic Utopia, or the Psychology of "Yearning For A New Dark Age"
odograph,
You said, "It's possible to keep an eye on energy issues without committing to a single energy future."
It's not only possible, it is the most realistic and scientific approach. It is a refutation of "Peak Oil" as assured catastrophic death and destruction of culture, which there is no demonstrably provable way to show that it will be.
The issue is whether I accept absolute catastrophic doom as the only possible outcome as an article of faith. You may notice that many people here seem to....and react in a very hostile way to the suggestion that there could be any other possible outcome....notice the response of Kevembuangga to your remarks, "You are not a "moderate" you are a troll with an agenda."
It is shocking that a so called "scientific outlook" would react to any difference with the "accepted dogma" of assured doom and catastrophic failure of all modern society in such a violently hostile way. What does it say about the psychology of the "peak oil" "rapture" theology? Of course, that version of absolutism has nothing to do with science in the normally accepted way of acceptance of new thesis and theories, and then testing them with as much rigor as possible to try to prove their correctness, a tool that relies on acceptance of questioning DEEPLY any theory. It is, in the end, a belief system.
Of course, it was predicted and described many years ago. Rousseau and the cult of the "Noble Savage", the Ruskin/Morris aesthetic of "Neo-Gothic Medievalist, and more directly and recently related to the "Peak Oil" catastrophist theology", Alvin Toffler.
Toffler described in the 1980's what he called "The Yearning for a New Dark Age" as part of the illness he had earlier described as "Future Shock".
This would be, he said, the mental breakdown in reaction to complexity, high cultural speed of change, overchoice of options in lifestyle, career and social choices, and the inability and or unwillingness to stay up with the more technical and modern pace of change.
It was pointed up that those most vulnerable to "Peak Oil" depression issues are middle aged males. These of course are exactly the same ones most vulnerable to "Future Shock", in that they are most mentally acclimated to the older, slower more simple and organizationally stable structure, and they are least shielded (in comparison to females, with their known stronger social based networks, and "people and home" orientation) form the chaos of ultra high speed cultural post modernism in the high tech high information culture.
The reaction becomes to yearn for a simpler, more primitive, slower and less diverse time, a culture that is more comparable to a known model, namely, the past. "Peak Oil" provides a magnificent vehicle to a slower, more primitive world. It may be a harder world, but at least the struggles for life's basics are one the human mind can comprehend. Thus, the collapse of a completely incomprehensible ultra modern system becomes a dream, a fantasy of a way back to a simple world. Notice that the "Neo-Gothic" movement was born in the birth of the super expansion of industrial, commercial, media culture.
Note the virulent language used against anyone who expresses any doubts about the exact nature not of "geological" peak oil (which is a fairly easily demonstrated fact of geology in the past) but about the "catastrophist" vision of the future. First they are completely dehumanized, referred to repeatedly as "sheepies", "screaming monkeys", and no smarter than yeast. They are declared in some state of mental illness or sickness, "denial", "sleepwalking", "brainwashed" or "hypnotized" by giant forces beyond their comprehension.
This type of attack of such viscousness and slanderous nature bespeaks something much deeper than a difference of opinion or technical viewpoint.
It indicates that anyone who perceives any weakness in the "assured catastrophist" theory is actually an impediment to a desired goal, a possible roadblock and a danger to what is a desired vision of existence, that being the return to the mental and social peace that "catastrophe", "powerdown" and the "big dieoff" will bring....a more peaceful and beautiful utopia of a simple, non technical, slower, and local culture.
Of course, like all "Utopias", the dreamed of "dark age" will not come. The technology cat is already out of the bag. The knowledge will survive, the more advanced methods will exist in pockets, and live on to keep the world complicated and much different than the hoped for "simple" dark age of the past. But it lives on as a dangerous dream. There are those who, if they do not see the dreamed of "collapse" coming soon, may begin to try to "encourage it" to come. The emergence of "radical solutions" of the type proposed by "Green Anarchists"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_anarchism indicate that psychologically, the "collapse", or "die off" or "End of The World As We Know It" is not so much feared as a possible outcome of oil and gas depletion" or "Peak Oil" but dreamed of as a preferable new world for humans, an aesthetic choice.
The words of the exploration geologist Greg Croft ring louder...
"The greatest danger from peak oil is that we will do something foolish in response to it."
But what may seem "foolish" to many of us, may actually be a path to perceived beautiful future to some. At this point, the discussion has less and less to do with oil and energy at all, but more and more to do with aesthetics, belief, and desired purposes in life. For those who yearn for "A New Dark Age" so called oil depletion or "Peak Oil" simply becomes a means to an ends, and no solution should be attempted because none is desired.
Roger Conner known to you as ThatsItImout
The future actually has been written. It just has some serious continuity errors and wicked spelling and grammatical mistakes.
Will you help us fix these? It only pays $6 an hour to start, but I can assure you the perks are unbelievable.
But it had better pay better than $6/hr. I have eight years left on my mortgage.
I know I tend to the doomer side of the equation.
Put this down to working in the Y2K arena as a mainframe programmer trying to make it a survival situation.
I worked long and hard hours during this event and saw the scary side of what was hidden from most including the idioticy of the Mass Media.
We escaped it but some did not. There was no mention of those that did not. I saw mass layoffs of very key personnel, idioticy by IT management to unheard of levels.
This gave me some insight as to how we react or will react and this gave me my reasons for tending to the doom side of the future.
That being said, I hope and pray that this proposed upcoming event is averted. I have been watching and keenly reading the internet for years and observing as well personally.
Hope is something I keep near but preparedness is something I chose to do just in case.
So I hope for the best and prepare for the worst. I do not do it gleefully. Its hard work and expensive. It detrimental to good mental health and I do not enjoy it.
What I saw after Y2K was that we no longer had a cohesive society. The business leaders threw all morals to the wind and started to take this country economically to its knees.
Our morals shrank to nothing but selfcentered greed beyond belief.
We are not , IMO, no longer a suvivable species in the USA. We have not the core values to make it through.
The folks who populate this website are not the same as the general public. I applaud the attitudes and efforts of those here but realize the difference.
I still work in computer technology, precision farming and other areas. Mainframes no longer exist in meaningful numbers to keep me employed. I am currenly implementing wireless technology to autombile service areas and am amazed at the unbelievable technology in that area(automotive embedded systems) yet realize that the Big Three for all that technology are mostly on the wrong path.
Will our technology save us? I think it still tied to closely to the business side of the equation to offer much hope. If it was diverted? Say thur 'Open Source' avenues? Then we might have a chance.
I suggest the book (online version exists) by Eric S. Raymond .....www.catb.org/~esr/writings/cathedral-bazaar/
titled The Cathedral and the Bazaar and others at that site.
This to me is where we need to be. Using grassroots technology to take control of our future and not waiting for the 'guv/ or biz to make decisions for us. I don't think they really care.
airdale--"Thankee Sai, if it do ya."
So, Roger, you are speaking of me as "Yearning for a New Dark Age" and "violently hostile" ?
I am very sad...
Of course, like all "Utopias", the dreamed of "dark age" will not come. The technology cat is already out of the bag. The knowledge will survive,
Agreed 100%, except may be with a toned down "technology cat" (not so miraculous), but alas I expect BOTH a die-off and some persistence of civilisation and technology.
This is what I am aiming for, not out of a craving for "dark age" or a yearning for "a simpler, more primitive, slower and less diverse time, a culture that is more comparable to a known model, namely, the past."
I enjoy too much the current facilities of civilisation to have any desire to give them up.
Though, there is a little bit of a difference in my appreciation with respect to what seems to be the "common greed".
As I am extremely lazy I enjoy to spend very little with almost no effort instead of toiling even more than the primitivists to "keep up with the Jones".
I really don't see the point to have to cling to "complexity, high cultural speed of change, overchoice of options in lifestyle, career and social choices" is this has a very bad EROTI (Enjoyment Returned Over Toil Invested).
And I am fairly sure that CIVILISATION has the best EROTI over "dark ages", primitivism, warlordism and any other apocalyptic credences.
More precisely, rather than aiming for die-off I am NOT WILLING to try to avoid population collapse whether this is to be soft or hard, voluntary or unvoluntary.
Sorry if this is so gloomy but this is unfortunately a TOTAL WASTE of time, ressources and ingenuity.
Overpopulation IS our problem, I seem to agree on this with TechGuy, GreyZone and PeakTO (NOT pretending they partake more than this with me) .
This type of attack of such viscousness and slanderous nature bespeaks something much deeper than a difference of opinion or technical viewpoint.
Could you please READ the arguments between odograph, and me or more recently with slaphappy and Magnus Redin and also Starvid and Magnus Redin (who seems to entertain connivance with both).
Honestly tell WHO is the most viciously slanderous?
Who is either LYING or arguing BESIDE the topic to breed confusion?
and no solution should be attempted because none is desired.
Oh! I do crave for a "solution" but probably not in accordance with the one(s) you are looking for.
I DO CRAVE for a change or restraint on 2 of our most "basic instincts" :
- Men are eager to fight.
- Women are eager to breed.
This were EXCELLENT options all along prehistoric and historic times, allowing mankind to evolve and spread over a seemingly "unlimited", "open ended" Earth.The Earth is NOW bounded and closed, these are NOW deadly vicious habits.
If we don't rein in these we are going toward extinction, notwithstanding ANY kind of technology, ressources, peaks or no peaks.
PERIOD.
Kevembuangga,
First, to be sure it is understood, I was on no personal attack...as I have said before, you, I, and others have generally managed to keep a civil agenda going without, I hope, real rancor or hostility, and I have always enjoyed reading you and others (the post I am replying to for example was very fun to read, I especially like the concept of EROTI (Enjoyment Returned Over Toil Invested), I wonder if there is any way we can begin statistically measuring that! :-), something for the math whizes to work on...
The nature of the sentence that you seemed to be replying to by odograph seemed pretty mild (and I am not familiar with any other debates you and he may have had, or can't at the moment recall them) to get a return such as "A troll with an agenda", and it provoked me to address the bigger more general theme that I did in my post. My post was intended not as a personal rhetorical insult against any one person, but simply as a discussion of the theory of what some call "green anarchy" and others refer to as "primitivism" for lack of a better description, and the fact that not all people regard "peak oil" or "resource depletion as a "bad thing", if it will act as a means and tool in dismantling the modern technical capitalist type societies.
I only point this up for two major reasons....first, for the benefit of those new to this discussion, who may not be aware that some (certainly not all) who are most able to frighten and depress the folks who are newest to this discussion (and the "Peak Oil Blues" psychological website was the original topic of this string) are speaking more from desire for an event than from knowledge about it (that being catastrophic collapse of modern society), and newbies should be aware that that their predictions are dire and horrifying to them, but for the person doing the prediction, actually a fulfillment of a desire, so the agenda and the "predictions" are naturally slanted somewhat. Secondly, newer folks to the discussion should be informed that there are political and social agenda's involved in the "Peak Oil" discussion, and try to learn to seperate this from the geological, technical and scientific issues of oil depletion. The social and political agenda, and this is purely my view and not scientifically provable, seems to have later began to swallow up the geological and technical agenda. Essentially, this runs the risk of moving "peak oil" away from a technical/geological discussion of energy production/consumption, and into the realm of social philosophical cause. Combined with global warming, the science and the actual facts are becoming less and less important to those involved in this issue, as it becomes more and more a moral/philosphical/political/social crusade. That distinction should be discussed, and I think newer people should be aware of the distinction. It is a fundamental one.
Roger Conner known to you as ThatsItImout
without, I hope, real rancor or hostility
No rancor or hostility from me.
No matter how far apart I am with any contestant I never get upset about HONEST and wholehearted arguments.
If you didn't felt the humorous tone of my "I am very sad..." remark and icon I apologize.
I did get the humor of the "very sad" line, and icon, but was mainly jealous because I can't get my Mac to put smiley's in like that! :-( (see, I have to do them in black and white, like a 1950's TV set! :-)
Roger Conner known to you as ThatsItImout
I would greatly benefit from a fraction continuance of the techno-orgy. It would give my librarian career security, and would allow me to continue my love of playing the electric guitar. However, I have been able to put aside those attachments in my pursuit of assessing just how sustainable any portion of modern life really is. My position of serious consideration of completely eliminating electricity consumption stems from a holistic realisation of the complexity and resource drawdown that would be required to sustain that luxury. To remain ignorant of the fact that to expect one infrastructure based on finite resources will prevail over one that is in certain short future is, well ignorant. Not to mention irresponsible and indefensible.
The simple reality remains, the host that allowed for the development of human life owes us nothing. Just because we have been able to leverage certain endowments to create a lifestyle, does not mean that that lifestyle is worthy of sustenance. to deny this simple equation is to deny what it is to be human. We came from the mud, and if we have any chance of making past this century, we had better learn to accept that life in a sustainable form will have to resemble that humble origin to a much greater extent than what is being attempted by the supposedly informed members here.
If you do not like that last statement, then by all means show the community through research and calculation how a fractional techno-orgy can be sustained. However, to resort to the making a villian out of a disparate belief only shows your cowardice and fear. It would be better for all if you just kept your self righteous prejudice to yourself and let the chips fall where they may than to strike out at those that have a deep concern for the future of humanity just because their goals force you to critically evaluate the realistic implications of your desires.
There are two things that need to be addressed in order for humanity to make it through this crises. One is an honest and rigorous evaluation of our needs versus wants. The other is to take science and its progeny technology to task and evaluate the just because we can, should we aspect of implementation.
You can tell how the stress level has escalated in many threads here as peak becomes more apparent and there needs to be a psychological outlet. Call it the TOD's R & R unit. Go there when you need some peace and people that understand your mindset.