Regarding SA, I agree with simmons that there is not enough data to guess future production, even though the clues seem to point to major problems. Like many, I guess that they will have difficulty getting back to 9.5mm/d regardless of the number of rigs, but moving from an avg of 18 to, say, 180 may be enough to increase production for a time. They have clearly decided to do their best, we will just have to wait and see. I don't see how anybody not closely involved could assign probabilities.