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274 comments on DrumBeat: August 25, 2006

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optimist on August 25, 2006 - 9:32am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I think it's too early to tell. The Weather Channel is predicting it will be a tropical storm later today and a hurricane threatening the gulf by early next week. It will probably turn northward as it enters the GOM, as usual. There is will encounter very warm water and could become a massive storm, or could remain compact.

Right now it's too early to say if it will even make landfall -though the smart money says it will. But the question is where, and right now the tracks show anywhere but northeast Mexico to the Florida.

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Leanan on August 25, 2006 - 9:55am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Yup, too early.  But TheStormTrack thinks this one will intensify quickly, because of the warm water in the Gulf.  They're predicting it will be Hurricane Ernesto by Saturday night.
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Ben on August 25, 2006 - 11:04am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I know things change, but the guy I heard this morning emphasised the "it's a big if this thing stays together" side of the equation.  Citing dry air and lots of shear ahead of the storm on it's current track.

We'll see.  

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Leanan on August 25, 2006 - 1:17pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Oil companies are preparing to evacuate.

BP PLC, which is responsible for 2,500 employees and contractors working on offshore rigs and platforms, has in-house meteorologists tracking the storm and has begun assessing the amount of time it would take to evacuate various facilities.

BP spokesman Hugh Depland said one of the key factors behind any decisions about when to evacuate employees is whether the winds are light enough for helicopters to land on offshore rigs and platforms. "Helicopters that we have historically flown, they don't like to shut down if the wind is above 60 knots," Depland said.

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Leanan on August 25, 2006 - 7:40pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
It's official: Tropical Depression 5 is now Tropical Storm Ernesto.

The StormTrack is predicting that it will become a hurricane, and will have a track something like Dennis.  (Thunder Horse, beware!)

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Dragonfly41 on August 25, 2006 - 11:04pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
You know, everyone's saying that this season is such a lessened threat than last year, but the fact of the matter is you only need one really BAD hurricane to screw things up for awhile.

I think if anything, Global Warming has made weather prediction much more difficult because we are seeing new patterns all the time....an increase in anomalies (droughts, warm where it should be cold and vice versa, etc.)  

Heck, I wouldn't be surprised to see a hurricane that formed in the Gulf and just sat there spinning around for a few days without moving anywhere...kinda like the Great Eye on Jupiter.

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274 comments on DrumBeat: August 25, 2006

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