After peak the production rate of a field is very sensitive to how its been developed produced and the geology of the field itself. Technical factors come into play to determine the post peak production profile.  Almost all the offshore fields show steep declines post peak because of the way they are produced. For cpu's and Moore's law heat and static discharge have ben the major factors on the real increase in computing power the last few years.

These technical factors certainly sometimes result in higher production rates then would be predicted with a smooth curve generally in exchange for a drop in production later.

In general just looking at the graphs most fields tend to show a initial slow decrease in production rates post peak for several years say 3-10 followed by rapid drops as technical factors come into play. Look at the field production profiles for Texas and the north sea.

Here is a article on the North Sea.

http://www.energybulletin.net/17262.html

The decline rates post peak are all over the map.

I agree I'm guessing but it would sure be nice to have someone come up with a reasonable explanation why the post peak decline rates won't be steep. I can come up with lots of reasons to expect steep declines and so far not single reason to expect them not to be steep. And yes I take  political and engineering issues into consideration because they are relevant.

How can we ensure that we are not headed for serious problems ?

Treat oil as a world resource not a national or resource open the books and do independent analysis. Find out the truth then with this information work out a way to power down in a dignified manner. Transparency regardless of if the news is good or bad is the only answer.

Are we going to do this ?
Probably not.