The Oil Drum

IMO, the only reasonable plot of this data set is the middle case, which derives about the same Qt that Khebab and Stuart came up with.  Are there fluctuations above and below the "glideslope?" Yes. Whether one use crude + condensate or total liquids, the HL plots show that the world is right at about 50% of conventional URR, and recent EIA data show that world oil production is trending down.

I first become of aware of the HL technique when I read Deffeyes' second book.  I did some research and came up with the pre-1935 Texas production data and then generated a HL plot of Texas production.  I believe that Stuart's first essay on Hubbert Linearization (the one where I think he coined the term) used my Texas HL plot as an example.  In any case, this exercise convinced me of the accuracy of the method.  BTW, my HL estimate and Khebab's estimate of Texas Qt's were within 5% of each other.

It is becoming increasingly aware to me that, despite your loud protests about the certainty of your conclusions, you have simply not done your homework.  Which is fine, we still (so far) have some degree of freedom of speech.  

I do take exception to your continued personal attacks on gentlemen like Deffeyes and Simmons.  You continue to refer to Deffeyes' many failed predictions.  As I have pointed out before, Deffeyes has been very consistent regarding his mathematical models--that the peak was between 2004 and 2008, most likely around the end of 2005.  In 2003, he made an observation that he may have been wrong, and that the peak was in 2000.  An observation made after the fact cannot be construed to be a prediction.

Below is a post you made on 7/31/06, in which you refer to Deffeyes and Simmons as "Sleazebags both."   I have met both of these two gentlemen.  I have reviewed their work in considerable detail, and in my opinion you have libeled both of them.  Do you wish to retract your statement?

Freddy:

[new] Freddy Hutter on Monday July 31, 2006 at 1:50 AM EST
Apparently u and greyzone know about as much about the pope's pre-omipotent days as y'all do about deffeyes seven predictions and all his backpeddalling.  They guy is on the book ciruit and looks only for notoriety. Simmons $200 public bet for $5k is of the same ilk.  Sleazebags both.  And we see the have any easy time attracting koolaid drinkers here at TOD.