<DrumBeat: August 3, 2006 The Oil Drum DrumBeat: August 4, 2006>

240 comments on EIA insisting on plateau

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westexas on August 3, 2006 - 12:41pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Two big differences between the current crude + condensate decline and prior declines:  (1)  the world is at about 50% of (conventional) Qt and (2)  it's a very high probability that all of the four largest producing fields in the world are now declining.
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clifman on August 3, 2006 - 1:45pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Here's what I'm going to watch for (referring to the C & C graph): During the first half of '03 there was a 3 month decline amounting to about 2MBD, then a rapid recovery & further growth.  During the first half of '04, there was a 5 month decline of a little less than 1MBD, then recovery.  From May to October '05 there was a 5 month decline of a little more than 1MBD, then recovery.  From Dec. '05 to May '06 there was another 5 month decline of about 1MBD.  So the ratchet seems to spring back after 5 months. If Westexas is right, and I think he is, then recovery on this curve is an historical event, not a current or future one.  What will June show?  Stay tuned.
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clifman on August 3, 2006 - 1:53pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
One might also postulate that the dip in Sept/Oct '05 was hurricane driven, and that the spike in Nov/Dec was recovery from that.  So without Katrina and Rita, those 4 months would all have been somewhere much closer to 73.5 MBD, and we'd be able to much more clearly see the undulating decline that set in from May '05...
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clifman on September 6, 2006 - 3:02pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
June # is 73.382 MBD.  That's up from May's 73.334 by .048 MBD.  So the slide stopped (or has at least been interrupted) but it doesn't look much like the recovery seen in the first month's reversal in the previous five month declines noted above.  Time will continue to tell...
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240 comments on EIA insisting on plateau

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