The Oil Drum | DrumBeat: August 3, 2006

223 comments on DrumBeat: August 3, 2006

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PeakTO on August 3, 2006 - 10:33am

Great work Oil CEO.

When presented like that you can see a definite shortfall.

More than half way through the year and we have a net decrease of Half (.5) a million barrels per day.

I recall that either the EIA or IEA revised new demand to around 1 Million new barrels per day. So, either a supergiant is coming online in September, or its going to be a very expensive and cold winter.

A question for the more wise, if you reduce gasoline demand can you produce more heating oil from a barrel of oil? ie. I don't know if you can change the mix of extractables from a barrel of crude.

BTW, when do we decide peak has occurred? It's starting to look like Deffeyes was right, maybe.

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It's all about population!

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Consume More on August 3, 2006 - 10:51am

IEA says June production averaged 85.2 mb/d on increases from GOM, Canda, Russia, China, Iraq. If this stands it would exceed December '05.

PDF: http://omrpublic.iea.org/currentissues/full.pdf

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PeakTO on August 3, 2006 - 10:56am

Isn't the IEA always high, and the EIA more conservative?

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It's all about population!

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Darwinian on August 3, 2006 - 11:57am

Isn't the IEA always high, and the EIA more conservative?

Yes Exactly! The IEA data is always premature and usually too high. But there is a huge discrepancy between the EIA's Short Term Energy Report and the IEA data. The EIA's Short Term Energy Report had OPEC production, December to May down by 855,000 bp/d. But the IEA, for the same period, had OPEC production up by 300,000 bp/d. That is a discrepancy of 1,155,000 bp/d. It is hard to reconcile that kind of difference.

December to June the discrepancy closes from down by 555,000 bp/d (EIA) to up by 500 bp/d, (IEA) a difference of only 1,055,000 bp/d. Still a difference too large to be reconciled.

But you must wait until the EIA publishes its International Petroleum Monthly to get data that is checked and cross checked and far more accurate than the IEA's premature data. The latest issue has the May data. That data has OPEC production down by 607,000 bp/d, December to May and World production down by 981,000 December to May, crude + condensate.

There is absolutely no chance that the world will produce more crude oil in June 06 than in December of 05. I am expecting a slight increase in June however but a subsequent drop in July.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/ipm/contents.html

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jim burke on August 3, 2006 - 11:58am

Did anyone notice that Iraq's figures are exactly the same three months in a row?

OPEC has been taking hits for publishing bogus data on oil production; the US colonial masters dont' seem any different.

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fallout on August 3, 2006 - 2:15pm

Copy and Paste.

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fleam on August 3, 2006 - 6:07pm

Wait a minute..... Oil CEO????

How can this character post good research like this one moment, and act like a drunk 13-year old the next moment?

Hey Oil CEO!!!! Matt's site RULEZ!!! Matt is da Man!! You have to go read Tainter and dieoff.org!!!! No one site is Number One they're all different views of Peak Oil!!

Cussing and lunacy should soon follow.....

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oldhippie on August 3, 2006 - 9:11pm

Yeah, like Jekyll and Hyde. And downthread there's discussion of Israel and Jews and Lebanon and OilCEO doesn't take the bait. I have lots of respect for OilCEO when he posts on oil but that other persona is wild.

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Oil CEO on August 4, 2006 - 1:07am

The other persona? Where on earth did you get the idea there were just two?

Bait. I don't think so. It's you little fishies that are always falling for the bait. Two down. Where's smekhovo?

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fleam on August 4, 2006 - 1:32am

You know what? I think your name is Oil CEO but some kid was on here as Oil_CEO or OilCEO and was well, acting like a little kid.

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Oil CEO on August 4, 2006 - 2:24am

Cool. Are you the same fleam who smoked a little dope, read a little Chomsky, decided he understood the world better than everybody else and started calling Jews Nazis and Americans... what was it?...NaZionists?

Correct me if I'm wrong. I wouldn't want to misrepresent your views. That was you, right? Not some other fleam?

Funny thing was, I was going to write a cute little, humorous piece in the attempt to put this behind us. I read your initial response to my "Oil" post just previous to having to go out. Didn't have a chance to respond. Unfortunately, oldhippie preempted this attempt.

Take the fig-leaf, dude. (Yeah, I'm trying to teach a lesson in diplomacy - unless you'd rather get steamrolled, of course).

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fleam on August 4, 2006 - 2:45am

Go on, tell us all about how you can "fucking" read what you like, etc etc etc it's cute,

And watch Dad's Seagram's 7, you'll have one heck of a headache later.

You ZioNazi.

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Oil CEO on August 4, 2006 - 3:10am

Oh, here we go with the foul language. Should have capitalized that. Sorry I mispelled that Nazi thing of yours. Can never get that stuff straight. Remind me which way the wings on the swastika are supposed to rotate. Try again tomorrow. I think you should try starting a site called "The Water Cooler." You can lead-off with commenters contributing made-up stories of Palestinian "moms" trying to cook soup while their sons watch with wide eyes as Jews across the barbed-wire play in the sprinkler. Bring it....Oh, OK, I'll give you one more chance. Take the fig-leaf. I'm serious. Where's smekhovo? Figure he would have stopped by to back you up by now. Call me a nitwit or something constructive. He's usually good for at least 8 words.

Take the fig-leaf and stop reading the Chomsky.

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Mad Maxout on August 3, 2006 - 7:52pm

If you reduce demand for gasoline, you probably could make more diesel per barrel of light, but my guess it'll be easier to make diesel from heavy so to get more diesel we merely import more heavy! Heating oil (and jet fuel) are quite similar to diesel, a lot closer than to gasoline. Now, getting heavy sweet crude, that might be a challenge.

If my guess is correct, reducing gasoline demand and increasing diesel demand will move the prices of light and heavy crude closer. But sour will be cheaper per barrel than sweet becuse sour is a pain to refine to get the sulfur out.

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Starship Trooper on August 4, 2006 - 4:12pm

A question for the more wise, if you reduce gasoline demand can you produce more heating oil from a barrel of oil? ie. I don't know if you can change the mix of extractables from a barrel of crude.

The answer is yes. By changing the feedpointon distillation columns, reflux rate, etc, we can change the characteristics of the basic mix. We also use various cracking and reforming techniques. That's why there is a "switchover" of refineries to increase distillate oil production.

In theory, with enough processing you can make any crude come out with whatever final product you want. However, the energy requirements to stray that far away from the natural distillation curve starts becoming quite large.

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