Isn't the IEA always high, and the EIA more conservative?

Yes Exactly! The IEA data is always premature and usually too high. But there is a huge discrepancy between the EIA's Short Term Energy Report and the IEA data. The EIA's Short Term Energy Report had OPEC production, December to May down by 855,000 bp/d. But the IEA, for the same period, had OPEC production up by 300,000 bp/d. That is a discrepancy of 1,155,000 bp/d. It is hard to reconcile that kind of difference.

December to June the discrepancy closes from down by 555,000 bp/d (EIA) to up by 500 bp/d, (IEA) a difference of only 1,055,000 bp/d. Still a difference too large to be reconciled.

But you must wait until the EIA publishes its International Petroleum Monthly to get data that is checked and cross checked and far more accurate than the IEA's premature data. The latest issue has the May data. That data has OPEC production down by 607,000 bp/d, December to May and World production down by 981,000 December to May, crude + condensate.

There is absolutely no chance that the world will produce more crude oil in June 06 than in December of 05. I am expecting a slight increase in June however but a subsequent drop in July.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/ipm/contents.html

OPEC has been taking hits for publishing bogus data on oil production; the US colonial masters dont' seem any different.