<EIA insisting on plateau The Oil Drum A Net Energy Parable: Why is ERoEI Important?>
<DrumBeat: August 3, 2006 DrumBeat DrumBeat: August 5, 2006>

149 comments on DrumBeat: August 4, 2006

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

Show without comments | PDF version

Luis de Sousa on August 4, 2006 - 10:25am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Hi Darwinian.

I do think that Deffeyes got it right, but only on pointing the epoch of the mathematical peak.

You seem to have a good insight of what's going on country-by-country. If you include the expected rises in production from deepwater in the Southern Atlantic you'll probably get a peak in the 2010 - 2013 interval.

See the article of Dr. Campbell article published recently by the Peak Oil Review.

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Darwinian on August 4, 2006 - 10:36am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Lads, thanks for the tip. Any idea which issue that article is located in?

At any rate I think Campbell is beind overly cautious. He does not want to prematurly pick a peak again. Also There is no way deepwater Southern Atlantic can overcome the decline in the rest of the world.

Any idea how long before this reservoir comes on line? Who does it belong to?

Ron Patterson

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Luis de Sousa on August 4, 2006 - 10:52am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Hi again Ron,

Vol.1, No.27 July 10.

The 3 biggest deepwater producers and peak data:

Brasil - 2011 - 1.7 Gb/a
Angola - 2011 - 1.0 Gb/a
GOM - 2014 - 1.0 Gb/a

Basically the tandem peak in Angola and Brasil will probably mark the peak for World Crude Oil.

Laherrère gets about the same result using logistic modeling.

Regards.

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Darwinian on August 4, 2006 - 11:20am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Lads, thanks for the tip. I gotta run now but I will check it out and post later today on TOD.

Basically the tandem peak in Angola and Brasil will probably mark the peak for World Crude Oil.

No, I cannot agree with this at all. Angola and Brazil will probably be the last two nations on earth to peak. As you notice they are both part of my "Big Five" referred to in my above post. There is absolutely no way that these two nations can hold back the declining tide from the rest of the world. Peak oil will happen, or did happen, when the declines from the vast majority of the world cannot be replaced by new production from the very few nations that have not yet peaked. That point was either in December of 2005 or within the next couple of years. I believe it was the former, December of 2005. But I may be wrong, but if I am, I am not off by very much. There is no way that the peak can be delayed until 2013, or will be held off until the very last two nations on earth peaks.

By the way, I think Campbell is just being overly conservative. He may be a bit gun-shy. He has been wrong before and doesn't want to get caught again.

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Luis de Sousa on August 4, 2006 - 12:01pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I think you're misinterpreting what I reported; those are deepwater peaks, not overall peaks. Both countries will experience total crude peaks after 2011.

After Peak Oil there will obviously be regional peaks - nations might not be that important.

I guess the peak you are looking at is the Conventional Regular one. Even Freddy Hutter will agree that we already passed it. This might be the most important point because Conventional Regular is the liquid fuel with highest EROEI that we have right now.

2005, 2010, 2012 is it that important?

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
optimist on August 4, 2006 - 12:20pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
auote: 2005, 2010, 2012 is it that important?

It matters because the later dates give more people more time to prepare. The more people that wake up before it happens and take notice, the better off they will be when it does happen.

I'm an optimist at heart (hence my chosen screen name) and try to cling to hope that people will make it through.

I also won't finish grad school until 2013, so for me personally, I really hope it can be postponed another few years.

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Don Sailorman on August 4, 2006 - 12:35pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I used to take overloads both before and during grad school and also both summer sessions to graduate and get advanced degrees faster. This paid off for me, Big time. (And yes, I did a bit of work on the side, while I was in school, fun stuff such as editing and cooking.)

When will TSHTF? Who knows. But 2012 is as good a bet as any.

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Bitteroldcoot on August 4, 2006 - 1:46pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Why not just go with December 21, 2012.
It has such a nice apocalyptic dimension to it.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maya_calendar#End_of_the_world.3F

Makes for a nice juxtaposition between our civilizations collapse an one from antiquity.

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
LeGorfou on August 5, 2006 - 2:21am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I understood that, after a few very expensive dry holes in the South Atlantic, they stopped looking.

With the high price of rigs, these days, I would suspect that all the deep-water rigs, which were in the South Atlantic, have moved to places that they know for certain that there is oil!

Campbell may be relying of the new fields that we know are going to start producing in the next four years to more than make up for the decline in existing fields.

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

149 comments on DrumBeat: August 4, 2006

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

Show without comments | PDF version