I track all nations very closely. I track crude oil. I do not track ethanol, biodiesel, propane or butane. Therefore I use the EIA's figures for Crude + Condensate for all my data. True, this data is not completely accurate but in my opinion it is the most accurate of any published data on the net. And it is the only data on the net that gives a country by country breakdown of all oil producing nations. And they make every effort to correct previously data that was wrong. And contrary to what some folks think, this category does include all crude. It includes deep-water crude, crude produced from the Canadian oil sands and if Venezuela ever starts to crack crude from the Orinoco Bitumen it will include that also.

The EIA breaks the oil production data down into 31 nations. Actually it is 30 nations then they lump all the smaller nations into one category, which they call "Other". Lately "Other" production has been increasing considerably because it includes the FSU states in the Caspian area. No doubt however many of the tiny producing states included in Other, like Denmark, Germany and others, are in decline.

I have noticed that in the past when a nation drops in production for political reasons, whether those political reasons are deliberate for pricing reasons, or because of war or strike, or because of economic collapse as was the case of the Former Soviet Union, they will recover when those political reasons pass. But when a nation is producing flat out and still goes into decline, then it is extremely unlikely that the nation will ever begin an upward trend again.

Currently most nations have either peaked or plateaued. Two nations, Nigeria and Iraq, are suffering from political disruptions in oil production. These political problems run much deeper than most people realize and it will likely be years, if ever, before they return to anything like their former highs in oil production. Also there are a few other nations like Canada, that have plateaued but may increase oil production a bit in the future. But only five nations, including "Other" as one nation, are still increasing production to any considerable amount. "Other" is the world's third largest producer after Russia and Saudi Arabia.

So for my analysis I have grouped all nations into two groups, those five nations that are still on the increase and those that are not. Those five nations are Angola, Brazil, China, Russia and Other. There are twenty-six nations in the latter group including all of OPEC. I shall call them "The Big Five" and "All Others." The Big Five produce approximately 30% of the world's crude oil and All Others produce the other 70%.

All Others (the 26 nations) peaked in April 2005 at 52,700,000 barrels per day of crude + condensate. After Katrina and Rita All Others dropped to 50,952,000 bp/d but recovered in December to 52,006,000 bp/d due to the US's recovery in the GOM. Then by May of this year the combined output of All Others had dropped to 50,761,000 bp/d, a point even lower than the post Katrinsa/Rita low. That is a drop of almost two million barrels per day or a drop of 3.68% in just thirteen months.

So unless the world' crude oil was to peak in April of 2005, it was up to the Big Five to save the day. They tried valiantly and did succeed in holding off the peak until December of 05. The Big Five produced 21,082,000 bp/d in April of 05. That had increased to 22,369,000 bp/d by December due to a burst in production from Angola, Russia and Other. This offset by 593,000 bp/d the decrease in All Others. But this was a burst in production that could not hold. Russia and Angola have lost production since December but gains from Brazil, China and Other have combined to bring the increase, since December, of the Big Five of 256,000 barrels per day. But the decline from All Others have far more than offset that gain. All others have lost production of 1,246,000 bp/d since December.  Combining the two we are left with a drop in total crude production, since December of 981,000 bp/d or a drop of 1.32%.

Looking at the near future: OPEC production will show an increase of about 200,000 bpd in June but drop by a like amount or greater in July. In the long run OPEC is expected to continue its decline as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iran, Indonesia and Venezuela have clearly peaked. Others like Libya are working on a secondary but much lower peak than their previous peak. Of all OPEC nations only Algeria, Qatar and The Emirates have not yet peaked.

Of the Big Five Russia and Other are expected to continue to increase but at a far smaller rate than in the past. Many oil geologists are predicting Russia to peak within the next few years. Angola still may have a bit to grow yet. China is looking at a peak within just a few years. Only Brazil is a question mark. But Brazil is such a small producer that any increase in production will be small potatoes. Otherwise All Others are expected to continue their current trend.....downward.

Looking at the overall trend, Deffeyes hit the nail on the head. We peaked in December of 2005.

Ron Patterson