276 comments on More thoughts on Prudhoe Bay
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276 comments on More thoughts on Prudhoe Bay
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GAIA Host Collective
So if this issue of corrosion is problematic due to reduced flows, has this been documented elsewhere (like in West Texas for instance) or is it only the reduced flows in combination with the arctic climate and specific nature of the crude from that basin?
Basically, is this a problem that could recur elsewhere (or has already occured) anytime flow through pipelines drops a certain amount below the optimal range.
major, you know how we like charts here.....can you deliver a chart to demonstrate the validity of that position?
:-)
...you gottta' laugh, this has without a doubt been one of the most outragous days I CAN EVER RECALLL, in logic, in press coverage, in wild and stupid assertions both here on TOD and all over the energy and national press.....it has now completely entered the real of "Bizarro World". I have NEVER SEEN such an open and obvious attempt to whip up histeria to the max, to creat fear, and to drive the price higher with assertions that are COMPLETELY STUPID ON THE FACE OF IT. Linking this idiotic situation to "peak" in any way will only serve to discredit peak as a subject of serious study,
With the histrionics I have heard today, I would like for someone to tell me how anyone is going to accept any advice from anyone involved in the "energy speculation game", and the operative word here is GAME.
What a freakin' joke.....
Roger Conner known to you as ThatsItImout
Once a sulfur-reducing bacteria colony gets a good toe-hold they create a tough-as-hell shell. Scraper pigs won't dislodge them in the worst case. Then the acids that they metabolize burn a very neat hole straight down. You'd swear that some holes had to have been done with a drill; perfectly circular with clean, straight sides. These guys are really bad news.
I managed a few smart pig surveys like the ones that I imagine found the corrosion in Alaska. The technology is was pretty amazing 10 years ago, and it must be Star Wars-like today. With decent maps and a good odograph (yuk, yuk), we could usually make one backhoe hole to find the corrosion. And the corrosion was always there. Although sometimes the anomoly was actually from some very, very lucky backhoe operator sometime in the past who almost had a really bad day.
Heh, heh. I spent two years in Ponca City myself. But I will never, ever move to Lake Charles.
Gotta love zydeco.
Sounds like a new John Carpenter movie is in the works.. maybe Jim Cameron.
You even have to provide the appropriate ecosystem: pig launchers, pig traps, pig signallers, etc. A pipeline system is much more than just some round steel that you punch a hole through. Just make sure that OD > ID.
BTW they got their name from the sound they make as they travel the line.
True story? I don't know. Does anybody know?
I find it interesting to consider the timing of this event. If energy prices soar before November, the republicans stand a poor chance in the polls. If however, a great deal of oil is let out of the strategic reserve around that time, energy may take the back burner to whatever contrived panic the media stirs up that week. Furthermore, if an energy event occurs in the late summer/fall causing consumer to become accustomed to $4 per gallon gasoline, then this event is suddenly resolved in, say, late October, I think we could be looking at the same strategy as releasing oil from the reserve. Hopefully, the whole situation will backfire and leave us with $5 per gallon gas by election day...
Another interesting timing factor: BP, Exxon, and COP have now potentially arrived near the closing phase of a $20-30 billion natural gas deal (with arguably extraordinary "incentives," credits, and tax bennies regarding both oil and gas).
Alaska governor Murkowski has adopted a posture of being more eager to close even than the Big 3, who simply seem to have outfoxed the governor from day one. Meanwhile, for re-election this fall, Murkowski is not doing well in the polls, and for some time it has seemed that the legislature would not approve a variation on his package deal.
Now, suddenly, with the pipeline closing, Alaska's primary revenue source (90%-ish?) has dried up. Gasp. Suddenly during the last days of legislative special session, we've been delivered a new incentive to close the deal.
I have been pretty much only reading here and the articles linked here, but shutting down the largest U.S. oil field for an indefinite period is connected to peak oil in one concrete sense - which producer or combination of producers will now make up for a significant shortfall likely to last months?
Since I don't believe in any oil industry meta-conspiracy (I do believe that oil companies will act in a normal fashion to maximize profit in ways which many would consider indecent), this is one of those rare windows into reality - the pipeline will truly be delivering less.
If the shortfall can be compensated (which opens its own can of worms between short and long term), obviously with a time lag, peak is not really here. If replacing 400,000 barrels a day of formerly fairly average quality crude on the world market is not possible in any realistic time frame, I would consider it a sign of peaking to peaked production.
I do wonder how crazy the speculation has been.
If you look at NYMEX crude prices over time and did not know there was a pipeline issue starting would you really be able to point out that the price was so different there had to have been an event this week?
I think NYMEX crude prices are close to business-as-usual. Only a slight increase has occurred yet.
Although there may be "plenty" of oil in the ground, it gets harder and harder to produce. This results in a peak well before all the oil is produced. One of the things that makes oil production more difficult is corroding infrastructure. It's not difficult to understand. If we're near peak, then this could rush us to peak a little earlier. The return of the 400,000 bpd, if it happens, may not make up for declines following the premature peak, which would make that the actual peak.
Tony
Is there a standard definition? To me "Peak Oil" is short for "peak (maxium) oil production rates".
I have seen articles, even from ASPO, that use the term "peak" to refer to non-global oil production rate peaks. For instance Colin Campbell writes that the FSU had multiple production peaks.
400,000 barrels off line for two or thre months, will insure that US oil production in 2006 will be lower than hurricane reduced US production in 2005.
US domestic oil production of crude only (not counting condensate) averaged 5.097 mb/d in 2005. This year through week ending July 28, US crude production had averaged 5.083 mb/d. But production was climbing fast as we continued to recover from hurricane damage. It had reached a yearly high of 5.275 mb/d the week ending July 7th. But last week we saw production drop to 4.94 mb/d. And I suspect it will drop a little further this past week. Now there is little chance that US 2006 production will surpass 2005 production.
The data for week ending August 4th will be on the net tomorrow at 1PM Eastern time at:
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/twip/twip_crude.html
"Tony, you are exactly correct, this has everything to do with Peak Oil. If we were not at or near the peak, then 400,000 barrels off line would be no big deal. Only in a very tight oil market could such panic be caused by such a small cut in oil supplies."
That's exactly my point....400,000 barrels is no big deal.
"Only in a very tight oil market could such panic be caused by such a small cut in oil supplies."
Give carte blanche control over OPEC and and Alaska supplies, and I can make a tight oil market....I don't need peak to do that.....no conspiracy theory either before folks start screaming their head off, just good control of your product, you would do it in any business.....
Roger Conner known to you as ThatsItImout
Now of course, we assume coordination between these players....
Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Venezuela....uhh, that's called OPEC, a sum greater than the combined nation areas you mentioned....and over half world production the last time I checked. Let's play through a few of the remaining ones you mentioned...Nigeria, small player, but we need um', Khazakistan, let the devil have the hindmost, no one knows where to find Khazakistan, and only the Europeans care...Angola, we keep hopin', but a marginal, the North Sea, call the ambulance, this ones on life support...continental U.S., still important to us, but I think Hubbert himself kind of explained our "flexibility" after 1970, Alaska, please, don't, laughter causes my side to hurt, Brazil, who "supplies" themselves, and the loose catagory of "most other major suppliers" (???? Addresses, names, we need NAMES!!)
Now most folks here assume that the majority of the nations above are peaked (conspiracy theory? No, it's a fact of history in many cases, and consensus based on visible evidence in some others....but some say they are not peaked, so there would need to be a conspiracy to hide it), and proceed to say of OPEC (we don't know if it's peaked or not...conspiracy to hide it?) that of OPEC, "as Saudi Arabia goes, so goes OPEC, and as OPEC, so goes the world (check the very good posts by Westexas), so The long and short of it is, do I need to be in "conspiracy" with Khazakistan to create a tighter oil market?
Greyzone, I think you were involved in a string on Aug 5th called " Heinberg: Middle East at a Crossroads" in which I was also involved. In explaining the incongruities of explanation for what seemed to be almost exactly the same results in 1979 through 1981 as we are seeing today, they used two major explanations: War (question: Is it possible there could be a war issue in the Persian Gulf today?) and to use another poster of long standing at TOD's own words,
"But the vast majority of us knew very well that OPEC was manipulating production and that the production swings was due to OPEC control and not anyone peaking."
My answer remains as it did then: And yet, if control and " "manipulating production" then (1979-1981) could create a situation where every Gulf state and in fact world production could drop for a half decade, and Saudi Arabia could stand at "plateau" for the full decade of the 1990's, why is it considered the ultimate horrendous sacralige to be considered remotely possible today? Do we assume the world oil producing nations have renounced all desire for Earthly gain, and taken at last the vow of poverty (chastity? ummmm....perhaps later....)
J'accuse...you say....
"You claim no conspiracy needed then cite one as the basis of your post. Circular logic in the extreme."
Whom did I accuse of conspiracy with who, who are the conspirators? I would make the case that if I accept the logic right here at TOD, then Saudi Arabia could engage in a conspiracy of one....no one knows their true production, their true capability, their true URR, and as the wise men say, "as Saudi Arabia, so goes the world"....it is to be noted that here, to speak of a "conspiracy of one" would be forbidden because it uses the concept of conspiracy! But to call the Saudi's bold faced liars is considered a great sport! (o,k, it may be justifiable sport and great fun, but still...)
I must close confronting you with some hard questions my friend.
How is it that folks here at TOD will blush as though they have seen a great sin, foul indecency, or Lady Godiva upon her stallion, will cringe and turn away (!) from any suggestion that the producers of oil would act in their own behalf, and exercise their right to hold some sway over supply, (gad, man, De Beers has been doing it for over a century!!),... while having no difficulty accepting with no evidence or proof the idea that their suburban neighbors will in fact beat them with shovels to a merciless death in their happy post peak garden just to steal a bushel basket of their rutabagas!
P.S. you guys have got to help me kick this writing habit, it is just too much fun! :-)
Roger Conner known to you as ThatsItImout
I think that the common link regarding "Peak Oil" is aging infrastructure and rising water cuts in the large fields. Simmons talked about the problems the Saudis are having with increased corrosion as their water cuts rise.
As I noted elsewhere, all of these old, large fields are on their way to where the East Texas Field is now--99% saltwater and 1% oil (oil stained brine, as Matt Simmons put it).
Having said that, the Ghawar decline (probable but not officially confirmed) and the Cantarell decline (officially confirmed) stories are actually much bigger stories than Prudhoe Bay. I would guess that the ratio of Prudhoe Bay stories in the MSM to Ghawar/Cantarell stories is on the order of about 100:1.
Ghawar has produced about five times as much oil as Prudohoe Bay, and the (Heinberg) reported decline of about 2 mbpd at Ghawar is five times what Prudhoe Bay was producing before the shut-in.
The rise and fall of the large oil fields is the reason that we can compare all of these regions to each other using the HL method, and the fact that we now have credible reports that all of the four largest producing fields are now declining is a key reason that I believe that we are on the downslope of peak production.
Hubbert accurately predicted the Lower 48 peak. An associate of Hubbert's, Deffeyes, using a simplified version of Hubbert's technique, predicted a world peak for late 2005 (within a range of 2004-2008), and world production is down since late 2005. I don't see any conspiracies here. I see simple--and relentless--depletion.
What are you nuts? A lightbulb goes out in Bangladesh and it taken as proof of peak oil. A rusting pipeline must be triple proof. Maybe quadruple.
Perhaps you could elaborate?
A good example of everyone panicing would be 9/11, when half the country went mad that day. Rumors, gossip, hearsay. People lining up at the pumps to try and get gas, runs on the stores for everything from milk to clothing.
Another minor example -here in the South, everytime there's a hurricane in the Gulf (and we're nowhere near the coast), or a winter storm coming through, everyone and their brother runs to the store for milk, bread, flashlights and the like.
External stimuli finally illiciting a response?
Now, if it all blows over and things go back to 'normal', people will forget and go back to their normal habits like nothing ever happened. I think it will take a few more shocks for people to wake up to the fact that PO is real, this is serious, and the situation is likely to be permanent.
Just MHO.
"The sleeper must awaken!"
There might be a good model for PO transition in there somewhere...
"He who controls the spice, controls the universe!"
As for hurricanes, well, Southerners are just stupid that way....