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310 comments on DrumBeat: August 9, 2006

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dukey on August 9, 2006 - 9:12am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
has natural gas in the USA peaked?
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oilmanbob on August 9, 2006 - 9:36am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I'm in oil and gas exploration and I don't think that natural gas has peaked. But I'm not a cornucopian, and I feel that it is very unlikely that we can replace oil or coal with increased natural gas production. But it should be a significant help, one of the silver BB's.
  Higher prices make gas at deeper depths economic, as well as gas from "unconventional" sources. But, its not cheap.
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Tux on August 9, 2006 - 10:09am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Conventional gas has peaked in US. Total gas has been approx flat for years. Nat. gas outlook 2006
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AlanfromBigEasy on August 9, 2006 - 10:14am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Shipping half of the GoM off-shore rigs to the Saudi part of the Persian Gulf will not help future US NG production.

The lost rigs may tip the balance on future domestic US NG production.  Either to a steeper decline (my guess) or the delta between a flat to slightly rising production vs. modest declines.

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PaulusP on August 9, 2006 - 10:39am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
That is very odd. Why need off-shore rigs if you have 2 mbd of Daniel-Yergin-spare-capacity? And if you insist like the Saudi's do that you have no production problems? Land based production, that is.

I think it was discussed before on TOD but this is a clear indication of where SA production stands now.

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oilmanbob on August 9, 2006 - 12:52pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Most of the rigs that are being moved to Saudi are rigs for shallow Gulf waters, which have been pretty well explored. Our illustrious government has just opened the deep waters in most of the GOM to exploration, and the Gulf is prone to gas production. There are not enough drill ships to handle that acreage and the lease sales are just beginning.So once again I will get to operate my perfect 20/20 hindsight in five years or so, but I think prospects of increased production are pretty good.
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Darwinian on August 9, 2006 - 10:39am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
US Natural Gas production peaked in 1973 and reached a secondary but lower peak in 2001.

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/ng/ng_prod_sum_dcu_NUS_m.htm

This is the monthly figures but change to "Annual" then click under "view history" for either "Gross Withdrawls" or "Dry Production" for yearly totals. Both are way past peak.

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oilmanbob on August 9, 2006 - 12:34pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Its hard to draw conclusions about a peak just from production data. There is very little storage of gas and it is all consumed domesticially.Also, gas wells typicially have a 75% decline rate after their first year, so production is pretty much what producer's can sell and reflects the prior couple of years drilling decisions together with demand which can vary with switching to different fuels in power plants..
  Right now we are in a drilling renaisance in natural gas domesticially. The practical economic production depth has expanded to about 20,000 ft. from the 12,000 ft. of 20 years ago, and we can now drill high temperature reservoirs. In addition non-conventional gas has become economic. With "bright spot" 3D seismic the economics have changed
  I respectfully think the jury is still out on a natural gas peak timing. This doesn't mean I think that it is limitless, I just think we may not be at peak yet.
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wallyworld on August 9, 2006 - 3:05pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Production per well has fallen since 1999.
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fallout on August 9, 2006 - 3:20pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
The US Army Corps of Engineers seems to think that the US natural gas peak has come and gone.  Their published report from several months back stated as much.
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310 comments on DrumBeat: August 9, 2006

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