The Oil Drum | DrumBeat: August 9, 2006

310 comments on DrumBeat: August 9, 2006

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Darwinian on August 9, 2006 - 10:39am

US Natural Gas production peaked in 1973 and reached a secondary but lower peak in 2001.

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/ng/ng_prod_sum_dcu_NUS_m.htm

This is the monthly figures but change to "Annual" then click under "view history" for either "Gross Withdrawls" or "Dry Production" for yearly totals. Both are way past peak.

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oilmanbob on August 9, 2006 - 12:34pm

Its hard to draw conclusions about a peak just from production data. There is very little storage of gas and it is all consumed domesticially.Also, gas wells typicially have a 75% decline rate after their first year, so production is pretty much what producer's can sell and reflects the prior couple of years drilling decisions together with demand which can vary with switching to different fuels in power plants..
Right now we are in a drilling renaisance in natural gas domesticially. The practical economic production depth has expanded to about 20,000 ft. from the 12,000 ft. of 20 years ago, and we can now drill high temperature reservoirs. In addition non-conventional gas has become economic. With "bright spot" 3D seismic the economics have changed
I respectfully think the jury is still out on a natural gas peak timing. This doesn't mean I think that it is limitless, I just think we may not be at peak yet.

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wallyworld on August 9, 2006 - 3:05pm

Production per well has fallen since 1999.

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fallout on August 9, 2006 - 3:20pm

The US Army Corps of Engineers seems to think that the US natural gas peak has come and gone. Their published report from several months back stated as much.

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310 comments on DrumBeat: August 9, 2006

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