There back in Libya now who would have though that ten years ago.

The NCO have a problem they have coasted the last 20+ years on the fact that they have large reserves of easily recoverable oil. Outside of KSA/Russia(?) that have not developed the expertise to extract from post peak reserves. The majors have the ability.

Consider Mexico/Pemex.  Large debt and most of the money goes to the goverment. Suddenly there faced with falling production
or probably more correctly collapsing production. Now the NCO is in a bad situation pretty much regardless of the price of oil. The goverment has been pumping the oil money into the economy for years to uphold its powers. Suddenly oil revenue begins to drop what are they going to do.

1.) Husband the national resource and rest the fields while they try to increase production via favorable contracts with the majors or satelite western oil firms. And basically admit peak oil.

2.) Give in and invite the majors back in ( Libya )

Now consider the NCO finicial situation.
Production dropping by 10%
Internal demand increasing by 5% (WestTexas ExportLand tm )
This mean they need the price of oil to increase by 15% to stay revenue neutral.
Internally there is the expectation that revenue is increasing as the price of oil goes up lets say the populace of the NCO country feels it should get 5% richer each year.
So there is enourmous pressure to increase revenue by at least 5% to match the rising oil prices.

The only way to do that is to increase production even if a significant amount of the revenue from the new production goes into the pockets of a major oil company.

Of course the majors are going to claim that not only will they offset the decline but they can increase production for the NCO. (doubtful)

So the NCO's and associated goverments will be in a pretty tough situation. Either they try and keep production going with the expertise they have in house and see revenue begin to drop say at 5-10% a year or more as rising oil prices fail to cover the lost production or they cut a deal.

Think about it the NCO will be in the situation that they really want oil prices to rise at 20% a year so they can show revenue increases.

60->72->86->103

Unless I'm wrong this is a very very important point.
Peak Oil is also basically peak revenue for the oil producers. They will never make as much money post peak as they made at the peak.

Of course the price will bounce around but you see the trend.

Now lets consider the actions of the big players in the Oil industry.

1.) The Majors are not intrested in peak oil in fact they generally aggresively deny it. Why ?
They know a big payday is comming as they reenter former NCO countries and develop the tired fields to "increase" production.

2.) Opec is acting very strange even with the high prices. Why ? They need the price of oil to continue to increase at a nice rate just to break even as they deplete. Right now Opec or better KSA needs a 20% yearly increase in oil price minimum to offset dropping production. If there depletion rates are higher then 10% the problem is simply worse.
In the real world the price will almost certainly begin to fluctuate over a wide margin as demand destruction internal revenue needs and depletion play out so expect the situation for the NCO to be fairly grim as there revenue begins to fluctuate fairly wildly.

Over the past few years we have seen the big run-up in prices as we have peaked and lost all reserve production. This has resulted in a large cash infusion into the NCO countries the problem is that post peak they won't see any more hefty increases in revenue as demand destruction dampens the price and simple depletion/internal usage cuts into the amount of product they have to sell regardless of price.

The winners here are the majors everyone else loses.

They only monkey wrench is how many deal will go to the Chinese.