169 comments on Oil export - import model for the UK
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GAIA Host Collective
Saudi Arabia has 20 million people, and GDP per head of c. $8,000.
US consumes 25 bl per person pa, I would bet the Saudis don't consume a quarter of that per person.
Figure 12 bl/per person/ per annum in Saudi: that equates to 240m bl pa or about 600,000 bl/day so less than 10% of total production.
The picture might be a bit more blurry than that because the domestic petrochemical industry soaks up crude (but exports refined products).
The Saudi birthrate is surely an anomaly in terms of classic income-per-capita demographics. It's a rather extreme illustration of the fact that demographic transition is mostly about the emancipation of women.
Income per capita has roughly fallen by 2/3rds since 1974 in Saudi Arabia (population has tripled, the real price of oil is no higher, there hasn't been enough other industry come in to fill the gap).
Saudi Arabia is also dependent on 'shadow water' (the term used to mean the water imported as part of food and other products)- -it doesn't have enough of its own resources.
The country is on the edge of very serious political and social trouble. The combination of widespread religious radicalism, a corrupt ruling class, the absence of any meaningful democracy, and poor prospects for the huge majority of the population under 21 is a lethal cocktail-- precisely what led to Algeria's civil war for example.
Right now, the current high price of oil (and high production) and the ruthlessness of the state security apparatus keeps the lid on. But there is no question the Royal Family has been shocked by the various terrorist attacks, and the incompetence of the Security Forces at defeating them. The security forces themselves are rumoured to be riddled with Islamicist sympathisers.
Whilst Abdhullah remains alive and in power, I don't expect change. He is seen as an honest man, and not personally corrupt. When some of his cousins get to power, the situation may be very different.
Osama bin Ladin may yet see the day when he is welcomed in his homeland as a hero.