317 comments on DrumBeat: September 18, 2006
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Show without comments | PDF version
317 comments on DrumBeat: September 18, 2006
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Show without comments | PDF version
Search The Oil Drum with Google
Support The Oil Drum
Recently on TOD:World
TOD:Campfire
TOD:Europe
- Peak Gold, Easier to Model than Peak Oil? - Part I
- Carbon Capture and Storage
- Oilwatch Monthly November 2009
TOD:Canada
- In this house, we obey the laws of thermodynamics!
- The Round-Up: October 24, 2008
- Compressed Air Energy Storage - How viable is it?
TOD:Australia/NZ
- International Energy Agency calls 'Peak' on OECD Oil Demand
- Australian Senate: Peak Oil motion defeated 31:6
- The Bullroarer - Friday 20th November 2009
TOD:Net Energy
Blogroll
Energy Sites
- The Coming Global Oil Crisis
- Die Off
- Dry Dipstick
- Energy Bulletin
- From the Wilderness
- Life After the Oil Crash
- Peak Oil Crisis
- Peak Oil News and Message Boards
- Powerswitch
- Rigzone
- Matthew Simmons
- Wolf at the Door
Environment & Sustainability Sites
- The Daily Green
- EcoGeek
- Eco Street
- Green Car Congress
- Green Options
- green.alltop.com
- Gristmill
- RealClimate
- Sustainablog
- Treehugger
- WorldChanging
Blogs
- Casaubon's Book
- Cleantech Blog
- Clusterf
k Nation (Jim Kunstler) - The Cost of Energy
- David Strahan
- Early Warning
- The Energy Blog
- European Tribune
- GraphOilology
- Health After Oil
- jeffvail.net
- Mobjectivist
- Peak Energy (Australia)
- Peak Energy (USA)
- R-Squared
- Resource Insights
Finance & Economics Blogs
- The Big Picture
- Calculated Risk
- The Crash Course
- Ecological Economics
- Econbrowser
- Environmental Economics
- Infectious Greed
- The Mess That Greenspan Made
- Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
Organizations
Peak Oil Primers
Beware email scams!
Beware email scams claiming to be from this site. We do not have any job openings. If anyone contacts you about a job at The Oil Drum, do not reply to them, and definitely do not give them any personal information or send them money. Read more here.
“Where ideas are concerned, America can be counted on to do one of two things: take a good idea and run it completely into the ground, or take a bad idea and run it completely into the ground.”
—George Carlin
User login
Contact
- Content: editors at theoildrum dot com
- Tech support: support at theoildrum dot com
Personnel
- Editors: Nate Hagens, Gail the Actuary, Prof. Goose
- DrumBeat Editor: Leanan
- Contributors: ace, Engineer-Poet, Heading Out, jeffvail, JoulesBurn, Sam Foucher, Robert Rapier
- TOD:Campfire: Glenn, Jason Bradford
- TOD:Europe: Chris Vernon, Euan Mearns, Francois Cellier, Jerome a Paris, Luís de Sousa, Rembrandt, Rune Likvern, Ugo Bardi
- TOD:Canada: benk, Libelle
- TOD:ANZ: Big Gav, Phil Hart, aeldric
- Emeritus: Stuart Staniford
- Technician: Super G
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 United States License.










GAIA Host Collective
What's Really Propping Up The Economy
Also, I'd highly recommend reading "Thirst for cash that threatens a crash"
If the world economy has a "heart attack" in the form of an major economic crisis in the US, then it is conceivable that oil could be at $40 or less a year from now.
But I don't think anybody would be cheering.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=afVdECTFx3oo&refer=us
I tend to believe these aren't hedge funds since no one REALLY knows who it is, but rather the FED going to "extraordinary means", which Ben Bernanke said he would do to maintain the health of the US economy.
These are hedge funds, tax shelter funds and investment funds of overseas buearcrats funneling money out of their countries. FWIW:$69 billion is a barely a drop in the US Treasury market, and these accounts have been around for a very long time. In 2002 there was about $60 bullion held in the Caribbean.
The Fed can directly purchase and sell treasuries and does so frequently without using offshore banking accounts.
How and where would I find totals for these transactions? I know that they do sell them, but where do these buy/sells come from in the selling arena? An intermediary? I realize all changes are made through the NY trading desk, but again where do these numbers show up?
https://www.trading.treasurypoint.com/research/fundlist.asp
Can you help me read this, or can anyone who knows how?
PS-Anyone know why its no auto linky?
You can always use the html "a rel="nofollow" href=link" to do it.
The link is here.
Got Gold/Silver?
From Wikipedia:
Baumol's cost disease (also known as the Baumol Effect) is a phenomonon discovered by William J. Baumol and William G. Bowen in the 1960s. The original study was conducted for the performing arts sector. Baumol and Bowen pointed out that the same number of musicians are needed to play a Beethoven string quartet today as were needed in the 1800's; that is, the productivity of Classical music performance has not increased.
In a range of businesses, such as the car manufacturing sector and the retail sector, workers are continually getting more productive due to technological innovations to their tools and equipment. In contrast, in some labor-intensive sectors that rely heavily on human interaction or activities, such as nursing, education, or the performing arts there is little or no growth in productivity over time. As with the string quartet example, it takes nurses the same amount of time to change a bandage, or college professors the same amount of time to mark an essay, in 2006 as it did in 1966.
Baumol's cost disease is often used to describe the lack of growth in productivity in public services such as public hospitals and state colleges. Since many public administration activities are heavily labor-intensive and have a limited desirable provider-customer ratio, there is little growth in productivity over time. As a result, the costs of the bureaucracy will inflate quicker than the growth in the GDP.
This is how hegemony ends. Not with a bang, but a whimper.
you're correct about the nature of direct patient to patient care, although there have been some improvements.
The other big issue is the huge effect of diminishing returns with medical technology. The classic example is laparoscopic surgeries. At first doing surgery through a scope seemed like a great cure for many of medicine's woes- fewer complications, shorter hospital stays, fewer post-operative infections, lower costs, greater patient satisfaction. But what happened was that laparoscopic surgeries are so much better that patients are more willing to receive them and surgeons are more willing to do them since the risk and recovery for the patient is less. If you had gall bladder problems 20 years ago, the surgery required weeks off of work and months before full recovery. You'd be left with a 4 to 8 inch scar on your abdomen. You likely would have been inclined to try losing weight, avoid high fat foods and avoid alcohol. Today, realizing you can be in and at of the hospital in 24 hours with just 3 half inch button hole incisions, you're more likely to just say, OK take it out. The number of gall bladder surgeries has more than grown to cancel out the cost benefits of laparoscopic techniques.
Furthermore, the better we are at keeping people alive, the more difficult and complicated it becomes. More and more hospitalized patients today have a laundry list of medical problems. So treating pneumonia today is not the same as it was 40 years ago. Today's pneumonia patient is likely also to have lived through 2 prior heart attacks, be diabetic and hypertensive, and take 12 medications on a daily basis. We might be a little better at treating this or that, but ultimately all of us will die and for most of us it will be after prolonged (and expensive) illness.
Finally, the fear of litigation also cannot be overestimated. Many unnecesary tests and procedures are done to "cover you ass" creating more inefficiencies in the system.
I realize this is off topic for Peak Oil, but being a non-energy person, I rarely get to contribute on anything where I am expert and I just can't resist!
Phineas Gage, MD
Looking at it from an Energy perspective, all that has changed is energy substitution. Electricity as opposed to people.
It's true that things can't go on this way forever, but they will be propped up just as long as possible.
Me. too. Messes up my short term memory. I need to draw a map.
Not a small number but not too dominant either and not likely to drop to zero overnight.
As a ratio of exports, 243.5/762 = about 32%
More interesting, the fact China exports are 41% of the economy.
GDP to exceed US$1.85 trillion in 2005
US-China Trade Statistics and China's World Trade Statistics 1995-2005
This is why you are the #1 TOD poster!
Very much on point.
What they don't explain too well is that the health care system is being funded by the magical credit card. Where does all the cash come from to pay doctors, nurses and all other health providers their larger than average incomes? Yes, very scary.
Yes, much of the funding for U.S. health care is funded through borrowing and not just consumers using credit cards. The govt contribution to health care expenditures is quite large and includes: Medicare; Medicaid (state and federal); military healthcare to include VA; prisoners; research grants; and subsidies via reduced taxes on employment-based health care.
I've read (depending on what is included in the calculations) that the govt contribution to health care expenditures is 45% to 60% of the total layout. What happens when foreign investors stop financing our debt?
It seems that between the FIRE sector (Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate) and the medical-industrial-complex the U.S. has more bubbles than the Lawrence Welk show.
0o0o0o0o0o0o0o0o0o0o0oo0o00o0o0o0o0o
Folks, tonight we have a realllly good show. ;-)
Of course they did. 1.7mil of them in the health care system..
As an american physician, I fully expect to make far less money and be in a completely different (and more frustrating for me) healthcare system before I retire, probably in the next 5 to 10 years. The current system is clearly not sustainable in the long term (even ignoring peak oil and other resource constraints), and the number of uninsured persons in the US will continue to grow until something changes. American businesses now also see their burgeoning health care costs as a huge burden that hinders their international competiveness. Already, american employers are becoming less willing to cover the cost of healthcare. Politicians can ignore the 45 million low and mid-to-low income uninsured, but once businesses start shouting loud enough about their costs, I think Washington will finally be motivated to do something. We are likely to see a further shifting of the cost of healthcare from employers to employees through a tax-based national healthcare system of some kind. This is probably inevitable. Anyone, however, who thinks a national healthcare system in the US will be better and fairer than the current system is incredibly naive. We'll be trading one set of problems for another. I refer you to the Medicare part D drug benefit as illustrative of the type of "compromised" program we'll receive. this bill protected the drug companies first, created incredibly complex rules that no one understands, and the benefit to average people is questionable.
Anyway, back to the economy, as the article says, I think we can see that healthcare is one of the few places where americans spend money in a way that keeps the money in america. Let's say that health care spending magically went from 15% to 10% of GDP without any other changes. Where else would Americans spend that extra money in a way that stays in America to the same degree- probably they'd just buy more cheap plastic chinese-made goods at walmart. The only other markets that are still mostly american owned and are creating good american jobs are housing and defense. Nearly any other field can be exported or outsourced. This creates a powerful incentive for politicians and corporatists to continue this path even to the unsustainable degrees that we are witnessing in those three fields- healthcare, defense and housing.
What's interesting is that no one stops to think about how many people live in the U.S. and how that number compares. There are almost 300 million people here, so 47 million is just under 16%. At the rate its increasing, the number will be 20% soon.
And this is a first world country? Um, yeah, right...
Phineas, I know you don't mean it that way, but it's quite a statement to say the changes will be bad for you. If I were you, I would reserve the no.1 spot for the people who receive no care. That's really frustrating.
You should seriously consider the option that our society is on a slow but sure slide towards a situation where people become disposable. We'll rationalize this after the fact, as we do everything. It's nothing new, millions die every day somewhere in the world who could be saved with less than a dollar.
It will take some adapting when this starts happening in your town.
The US is fast on its way to having millions of people who can neither produce (no manufacturing left) nor produce (debts). They will be economically useless, and hence disposable. They just take up space.
If you want real change, you should target those who make a living suing doctors and hospitals. Make a database with the names of layers, their employess, spouses and children. Then every time one of them ends up in the hospital just let them lie on the floor and die.
Brutal? Maybe, but if you look to Europe you will notice that much fever people are with without insurance. It is also wastly more difficult to sue for malpractice.
Please identify anyone in this class of people that make a living suing doctors and hospitals.
This does not pertains only to medical care.
The US "jackpot justice" is yet another scourge of the "non negotiable way of life".
Jackpot justice has saddled America with the most expensive tort system in the world, costing $246 billion a year — or 2.23 percent of GDP, compared to less than 1 percent in Japan, France, Canada and the United Kingdom.
I am thankful to be an European.
Not one European country (especially not my Germany) has solved the problem of a population becoming older. This will overload the systems on both side of the Atlantic..
Part of this is civil works, that, like housing, require boots on the ground. Unlike housing, they also require skills that few Mexican et al visitors possess.
And part of it is the "Buy America" provision that goes with federal funding for steel, vehicles, etc. Under NAFTA, that "America" includes Canada & Mexico.
Rail is heavy & bulky/hard to handle. Two firms produce rail in the US and I am not aware of any imports of rail, but I am aware of switches & speciality work that we import.
I want to stay focused and apply this to St. Louis mostly, but be able to fit most circumstances. Can you help point me to some scholarly texts that I may pull info from? Also can you send another link to your excellent outline on electrfying the rail that you've posted before? Any help would be appreciated.
I am now reading Dr. Renne's dissertation on TOD (the other one). 256 pages may be a bit much though. I can forward it if you like.
Best Hopes,
Alan