Odograph, I read this last night. All of the jobs created in the past five years have been in health care, the least productive sector of the economy.

Also, I'd highly recommend reading "Thirst for cash that threatens a crash"

The next credit crisis may have little in common with the Tequila, Asian, and Russian debacles of the 1990s. As Russia, China, South Korea, Indonesia, and Brazil, all amass a war chest of reserves to free themselves from the strictures of a mistrusted IMF, the locus of financial risk is shifting to the epicentre of the global economy.

David Bloom, global head of currency strategy at HSBC, said: "It is the US that we are worried about as the housing market turns down. The US needs nearly one trillion dollars of foreign money each year just to stand still. If people around the rest of the world start keeping their money at home for any reason, the dollar will face a serious decline and we think it will kick in later this year.

"The risk has moved from the outskirts to the heart of the system, and it's now pressing on the very aorta of capitalism."

If the world economy has a "heart attack" in the form of an major economic crisis in the US, then it is conceivable that oil could be at $40 or less a year from now.

But I don't think anybody would be cheering.

I'm on board with this.  I'm confident we're looking at the beginning of a massive financial catastrophe.  Check out this buried in a bloomberg article discussing Net Foreign Purchases of our T Bills....

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=afVdECTFx3oo&refer=us

Caribbean banking centers, which some analysts tie to hedge funds, raised net holdings to $68.9 billion.

I tend to believe these aren't hedge funds since no one REALLY knows who it is, but rather the FED going to "extraordinary means", which Ben Bernanke said he would do to maintain the health of the US economy.

It's probably oil exporters' central banks and investment authorities.
Oil Exporters use London banks to buy their T-Bills.  Central Banks buy direct from the Fed.
its the u s treasury buying its own debt
I think so too.
>I tend to believe these aren't hedge funds since no one REALLY knows who it is, but rather the FED going to "extraordinary means", which Ben Bernanke said he would do to maintain the health of the US economy.

These are hedge funds, tax shelter funds and investment funds of overseas buearcrats funneling money out of their countries. FWIW:$69 billion is a barely a drop in the US Treasury market, and these accounts have been around for a very long time. In 2002 there was about $60 bullion held in the Caribbean.

The Fed can directly purchase and sell treasuries and does so frequently without using offshore banking accounts.

The Fed can directly purchase and sell treasuries and does so frequently without using offshore banking accounts.

How and where would I find totals for these transactions?  I know that they do sell them, but where do these buy/sells come from in the selling arena?  An intermediary?  I realize all changes are made through the NY trading desk, but again where do these numbers show up?

Part of it is the daily Repo and Pomo markets (google) where the FED allocates temporary of permanent funds for the primary trading banks to support the stock market and/or treasury market.
Awesome information!  I've googled it and waded through some BS to be quite frank....so I got to this table...

https://www.trading.treasurypoint.com/research/fundlist.asp

Can you help me read this, or can anyone who knows how?

PS-Anyone know why its no auto linky?

It looks like secure sites don't work with autoformat. I suppose I've never tried to link with a secure site and autoformat before.

You can always use the html "a rel="nofollow" href=link" to do it.

The link is here.

Net foreign purhcases has fallen in the past only to rebound strongly. I am a dollar bear but believe me these asian central banks dont learn easily. They love this currency.
Hows this point though?  If the Fed meets and decides this week to lower rates like some are calling for, it's a strong signal that they see bad times ahead.  If they hold rates, they are hoping it doesn affect Net Foreign Purchases, but if they were to raise rates, they can continue selling debt, but the housing sector tanks harder.  We're screwed either way, but it's fun to watch what they value but deflation is their enemy numero uno, so I would think they will print money at some point.
I agree. But dont count the foreigners out yet.Nobody seems to want a strong currency yet. I think that will change when oil starts zooming but for now everybody loves  the greenback.
If they lower rates the dollar will free fall.

Got Gold/Silver?

This is a phenomenon known as Baumol's Disease.

From Wikipedia:
Baumol's cost disease (also known as the Baumol Effect) is a phenomonon discovered by William J. Baumol and William G. Bowen in the 1960s. The original study was conducted for the performing arts sector. Baumol and Bowen pointed out that the same number of musicians are needed to play a Beethoven string quartet today as were needed in the 1800's; that is, the productivity of Classical music performance has not increased.

In a range of businesses, such as the car manufacturing sector and the retail sector, workers are continually getting more productive due to technological innovations to their tools and equipment. In contrast, in some labor-intensive sectors that rely heavily on human interaction or activities, such as nursing, education, or the performing arts there is little or no growth in productivity over time. As with the string quartet example, it takes nurses the same amount of time to change a bandage, or college professors the same amount of time to mark an essay, in 2006 as it did in 1966.

Baumol's cost disease is often used to describe the lack of growth in productivity in public services such as public hospitals and state colleges. Since many public administration activities are heavily labor-intensive and have a limited desirable provider-customer ratio, there is little growth in productivity over time. As a result, the costs of the bureaucracy will inflate quicker than the growth in the GDP.

This is how hegemony ends. Not with a bang, but a whimper.

Prodigal son,
you're correct about the nature of direct patient to patient care, although there have been some improvements.

The other big issue is the huge effect of diminishing returns with medical technology.  The classic example is laparoscopic surgeries.  At first doing surgery through a scope seemed like a great cure for many of medicine's woes- fewer complications, shorter hospital stays, fewer post-operative infections, lower costs, greater patient satisfaction.  But what happened was that laparoscopic surgeries are so much better that patients are more willing to receive them and surgeons are more willing to do them since the risk and recovery for the patient is less.  If you had gall bladder problems 20 years ago, the surgery required weeks off of work and months before full recovery.  You'd be left with a 4 to 8 inch scar on your abdomen. You likely would have been inclined to try losing weight, avoid high fat foods and avoid alcohol.  Today, realizing you can be in and at of the hospital in 24 hours with just 3  half inch button hole incisions, you're more likely to just say, OK take it out.  The number of gall bladder surgeries has more than grown to cancel out the cost benefits of laparoscopic techniques.  
Furthermore, the better we are at keeping people alive, the more difficult and complicated it becomes.  More and more hospitalized patients today have a laundry list of medical problems.  So treating pneumonia today is not the same as it was 40 years ago.  Today's pneumonia patient is likely also to have lived through 2 prior heart attacks, be diabetic and hypertensive, and take 12 medications on a daily basis.  We might be a little better at treating this or that, but ultimately all of us will die and for most of us it will be after prolonged (and expensive) illness.
Finally, the fear of litigation also cannot be overestimated.  Many unnecesary tests and procedures are done to "cover you ass" creating more inefficiencies in the system.  

I realize this is off topic for Peak Oil, but being a non-energy person, I rarely get to contribute on anything where I am expert and I just can't resist!

Phineas Gage, MD

Jevon's paradox applied to medicine?
You bet.
Am I correct that your examples are all related to fat people? How about we tax the fat?
Here is the bottom line: Health care is something everyone needs (at some point) but very few can pay for. Like police protection, fire houses, and delivery of electric power, a simple capitalist supply/demand mechanism is not sufficient to meet this public need - but that is thre trend that has been developing for the last 20 years. The result is HIGHER costs in the form of bureaucracy. We have many large companies comprised of workers whose only job is to document why their company should not pay out benefits, fighting the health care providers who bill them. Practicing MDs employ more people to fill out insurance forms than to assess patients. There are some family physicians out there who have dismissed ALL of their office staff, take ONLY patients with NO insurance (federal, state, or private), charge $50 for a visit and make a living. There is a message there.
Interesting, but when you look at the private sector , say , for example automotive production, it is true that less manpower is required to build a car, but the amount of energy required to build the car has increased.

Looking at it from an Energy perspective, all that has changed is energy substitution. Electricity as opposed to people.

Foreign quote of the day (from a daily bankruptcy bulletin):

"To gain protection from the coming financial storm stay clear of the US market (including housing, equities, bonds and cash) to limit one's exposure to debt and position one's portfolio defensively."  From yesterday's South China Morning Post.
Do you suppose that would apply to equities in the energy sector?
I agree that the US finances are in dire straits; but I think you have to consider how many people need the US economy to keep strong for their own economic health.  The Chinese are the biggest example with their huge trade surplus to the US.  They're certainly not going to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs.

It's true that things can't go on this way forever, but they will be propped up just as long as possible.

I'm trying to find where I stashed the numbers, but as I recall, Chinese exports to the U.S. represent a small fraction of their economy.  
"I'm trying to find where I stashed the numbers,"

  Me. too. Messes up my short term memory. I need to draw a map.

Find the numbers. I am sure you are wrong.
243.5/1850 = about 13.6%
Not a small number but not too dominant either and not likely to drop to zero overnight.
As a ratio of exports, 243.5/762 = about 32%
More interesting, the fact China exports are 41% of the economy.

GDP to exceed US$1.85 trillion in 2005
US-China Trade Statistics and China's World Trade Statistics 1995-2005

Actually you would have to count all exports. Exports to Japan, for instance, (or Saudi Arabia or Mexico..) tend to be payed for by USDollar, meaning 41% of the economy (without considering backlashes up the ladder) is indirectly dependent on a healthy US economy..
Don't delude yourself karma432. They already have the golden egg and once they realise the goose doesn't have another one to lay, they might just eat it.
Retired people, with limited income, might be.
odi,
This is why you are the #1 TOD poster!
Very much on point.
What they don't explain too well is that the health care system is being funded by the magical credit card. Where does all the cash come from to pay doctors, nurses and all other health providers their larger than average incomes? Yes, very scary.
"What they don't explain too well is that the health care system is being funded by the magical credit card. Where does all the cash come from to pay doctors, nurses and all other health providers their larger than average incomes?"

Yes, much of the funding for U.S. health care is funded through borrowing and not just consumers using credit cards. The govt contribution to health care expenditures is quite large and includes: Medicare; Medicaid (state and federal); military healthcare to include VA; prisoners; research grants; and subsidies via reduced taxes on employment-based health care.

I've read (depending on what is included in the calculations) that the govt contribution to health care expenditures is 45% to 60% of the total layout.  What happens when foreign investors stop financing our debt?

It seems that between the FIRE sector (Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate) and the medical-industrial-complex the U.S. has more bubbles than the Lawrence Welk show.

0o0o0o0o0o0o0o0o0o0o0oo0o00o0o0o0o0o

Folks, tonight we have a realllly good show.  ;-)

Lawrence Welk? Are you trying to admit your age?-)
Interesting that a sector with so many not-for-profits is the leading job producer. Interesting that the Bush tax cuts for the rich have netted ZERO jobs.
"Interesting that the Bush tax cuts for the rich have netted ZERO jobs."
Of course they did. 1.7mil of them in the health care system..
Regarding What's Really Propping up the Economy:

As an american physician, I fully expect to make far less money and be in a completely different (and more frustrating for me) healthcare system before I retire, probably in the next 5 to 10 years.  The current system is clearly not sustainable in the long term (even ignoring peak oil and other resource constraints), and the number of uninsured persons in the US will continue to grow until something changes. American businesses now also see their burgeoning health care costs as a huge burden that hinders their international competiveness. Already, american employers are becoming less willing to cover the cost of healthcare.  Politicians can ignore the 45 million low and mid-to-low income uninsured, but once businesses start shouting loud enough about their costs, I think Washington will finally be motivated to do something.  We are likely to see a further shifting of the cost of healthcare from employers to employees through a tax-based national healthcare system of some kind.  This is probably inevitable.  Anyone, however, who thinks a national healthcare system in the US will be better and fairer than the current system is incredibly naive.  We'll be trading one set of problems for another.  I refer you to the Medicare part D drug benefit as illustrative of the type of "compromised" program we'll receive.  this bill protected the drug companies first, created incredibly complex rules that no one understands, and the benefit to average people is questionable.

Anyway, back to the economy, as the article says, I think we can see that healthcare is one of the few places where americans spend money in a way that keeps the money in america.  Let's say that health care spending magically went from 15% to 10% of GDP without any other changes.  Where else would Americans spend that extra money in a way that stays in America to the same degree- probably they'd just buy more cheap plastic chinese-made goods at walmart.  The only other markets that are still mostly american owned and are creating good american jobs are housing and defense.  Nearly any other field can be exported or outsourced.  This creates a powerful incentive for politicians and corporatists to continue this path even to the unsustainable degrees that we are witnessing in those three fields- healthcare, defense and housing.  

The number of uninsured is now up to 47 million, or so was the last number I saw.

What's interesting is that no one stops to think about how many people live in the U.S. and how that number compares. There are almost 300 million people here, so 47 million is just under 16%. At the rate its increasing, the number will be 20% soon.

And this is a first world country? Um, yeah, right...

As an american physician, I fully expect to make far less money and be in a completely different (and more frustrating for me) healthcare system before I retire, probably in the next 5 to 10 years

Phineas, I know you don't mean it that way, but it's quite a statement to say the changes will be bad for you. If I were you, I would reserve the no.1 spot for the people who receive no care. That's really frustrating.

You should seriously consider the option that our society is on a slow but sure slide towards a situation where people become disposable. We'll rationalize this after the fact, as we do everything. It's nothing new, millions die every day somewhere in the world who could be saved with less than a dollar.

It will take some adapting when this starts happening in your town.

The US is fast on its way to having millions of people who can neither produce (no manufacturing left) nor produce (debts). They will be economically useless, and hence disposable. They just take up space.

Don't get me wrong.  I purposely chose to practice in an underserved area.  I also came from pretty meager circumstances.  I even had several episodes of being uninsured myself before becoming a physician. I put off an elective but necessary surgery for 5 years until I had decent insurance coverage.  So I do realize how good I have it.  My family and I choose to live on less than half of what I make.  The rest goes to charity, savings and what's left of my student loans (all other debt has been retired).  Anyway, I said I expect to make a lot less, and I don't say that as a complaint, just as a matter of recognizing the inevitable.  Medicare plans a 5.1% reduction in physician payments starting in 2007, and all other insurers base their rates on Medicare.  So this decline will likely start next year.  Look for a lot of complaining from whiney doctors in the news.  We may even see mock "strikes".  Physicians cannot actually strike, but you'll probably see demonstrations at statehouses and that sort of thing. Since my family and I have chosen to live well below our current means, the adjustment should be less painful for me. I do see the uninsured as the number one problem in our system.  I just have little faith that things will be better after the government or whoever else "fixes" it.  I'll certainly like my job less, not bc/ of less money but due to more bureacracy, more paper work and less autonomy. I think it unlikely that the medical system will be better for the average patient in America 10 years from now.
Look for a lot of complaining from whiney doctors in the news.  We may even see mock "strikes".  Physicians cannot actually strike, but you'll probably see demonstrations at statehouses and that sort of thing.

If you want real change, you should target those who make a living suing doctors and hospitals. Make a database with the names of layers, their employess, spouses and children. Then every time one of them ends up in the hospital just let them lie on the floor and die.

Brutal? Maybe, but if you look to Europe you will notice that much fever people are with without insurance. It is also wastly more difficult to sue for malpractice.

So you believe that it is ok for a doctor to screw up, kill someone, and have no adverse personal consequences?  

Please identify anyone in this class of people that make a living suing doctors and hospitals.  

It is also wastly more difficult to sue for malpractice.

This does not pertains only to medical care.
The US "jackpot justice" is yet another scourge of the "non negotiable way of life".

Jackpot justice has saddled America with the most expensive tort system in the world, costing $246 billion a year — or 2.23 percent of GDP, compared to less than 1 percent in Japan, France, Canada and the United Kingdom.

I am thankful to be an European.

Different systems, different solutions.
Not one European country (especially not my Germany) has solved the problem of a population becoming older. This will overload the systems on both side of the Atlantic..
I will point out that my rail concepts would largely be recycled funding within the US and the pay scale generated is decent.  

Part of this is civil works, that, like housing, require boots on the ground.  Unlike housing, they also require skills that few Mexican et al visitors possess.

And part of it is the "Buy America" provision that goes with federal funding for steel, vehicles, etc.  Under NAFTA, that "America" includes Canada & Mexico.

Rail is heavy & bulky/hard to handle.  Two firms produce rail in the US and I am not aware of any imports of rail, but I am aware of switches & speciality work that we import.

Alan...I'm doing a short 7-10pg essay for my business writing course in college and wanted to focus on the financial aspect of light rail in urban areas.  I wanted it to be national in scope, I mean to apply to most cities, but not a paper on electrifying national freight rail.  

I want to stay focused and apply this to St. Louis mostly, but be able to fit most circumstances.  Can you help point me to some scholarly texts that I may pull info from?  Also can you send another link to your excellent outline on electrfying the rail that you've posted before?  Any help would be appreciated.

The entire www.lightrailnow.org site is full of data.  Very good place to start.

I am now reading Dr. Renne's dissertation on TOD (the other one).  256 pages may be a bit much though.  I can forward it if you like.

Best Hopes,

Alan

I think I'll stick to this sweet website.  Thanks for the treasure trove.
what's proping up the economy is the keynesian orgy of deficit spending   the deficit and i mean the physical deficit ($ 600 billion per year) not the phoney "budget" deficit  is about 5 % of gdp  well if the gdp is growing by less than 5% which it is then we are really in a recession arent we ?
oops   fiscal deficit