317 comments on DrumBeat: September 18, 2006
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317 comments on DrumBeat: September 18, 2006
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Also, I'd highly recommend reading "Thirst for cash that threatens a crash"
If the world economy has a "heart attack" in the form of an major economic crisis in the US, then it is conceivable that oil could be at $40 or less a year from now.
But I don't think anybody would be cheering.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=afVdECTFx3oo&refer=us
I tend to believe these aren't hedge funds since no one REALLY knows who it is, but rather the FED going to "extraordinary means", which Ben Bernanke said he would do to maintain the health of the US economy.
These are hedge funds, tax shelter funds and investment funds of overseas buearcrats funneling money out of their countries. FWIW:$69 billion is a barely a drop in the US Treasury market, and these accounts have been around for a very long time. In 2002 there was about $60 bullion held in the Caribbean.
The Fed can directly purchase and sell treasuries and does so frequently without using offshore banking accounts.
How and where would I find totals for these transactions? I know that they do sell them, but where do these buy/sells come from in the selling arena? An intermediary? I realize all changes are made through the NY trading desk, but again where do these numbers show up?
https://www.trading.treasurypoint.com/research/fundlist.asp
Can you help me read this, or can anyone who knows how?
PS-Anyone know why its no auto linky?
You can always use the html "a rel="nofollow" href=link" to do it.
The link is here.
Got Gold/Silver?
From Wikipedia:
Baumol's cost disease (also known as the Baumol Effect) is a phenomonon discovered by William J. Baumol and William G. Bowen in the 1960s. The original study was conducted for the performing arts sector. Baumol and Bowen pointed out that the same number of musicians are needed to play a Beethoven string quartet today as were needed in the 1800's; that is, the productivity of Classical music performance has not increased.
In a range of businesses, such as the car manufacturing sector and the retail sector, workers are continually getting more productive due to technological innovations to their tools and equipment. In contrast, in some labor-intensive sectors that rely heavily on human interaction or activities, such as nursing, education, or the performing arts there is little or no growth in productivity over time. As with the string quartet example, it takes nurses the same amount of time to change a bandage, or college professors the same amount of time to mark an essay, in 2006 as it did in 1966.
Baumol's cost disease is often used to describe the lack of growth in productivity in public services such as public hospitals and state colleges. Since many public administration activities are heavily labor-intensive and have a limited desirable provider-customer ratio, there is little growth in productivity over time. As a result, the costs of the bureaucracy will inflate quicker than the growth in the GDP.
This is how hegemony ends. Not with a bang, but a whimper.
you're correct about the nature of direct patient to patient care, although there have been some improvements.
The other big issue is the huge effect of diminishing returns with medical technology. The classic example is laparoscopic surgeries. At first doing surgery through a scope seemed like a great cure for many of medicine's woes- fewer complications, shorter hospital stays, fewer post-operative infections, lower costs, greater patient satisfaction. But what happened was that laparoscopic surgeries are so much better that patients are more willing to receive them and surgeons are more willing to do them since the risk and recovery for the patient is less. If you had gall bladder problems 20 years ago, the surgery required weeks off of work and months before full recovery. You'd be left with a 4 to 8 inch scar on your abdomen. You likely would have been inclined to try losing weight, avoid high fat foods and avoid alcohol. Today, realizing you can be in and at of the hospital in 24 hours with just 3 half inch button hole incisions, you're more likely to just say, OK take it out. The number of gall bladder surgeries has more than grown to cancel out the cost benefits of laparoscopic techniques.
Furthermore, the better we are at keeping people alive, the more difficult and complicated it becomes. More and more hospitalized patients today have a laundry list of medical problems. So treating pneumonia today is not the same as it was 40 years ago. Today's pneumonia patient is likely also to have lived through 2 prior heart attacks, be diabetic and hypertensive, and take 12 medications on a daily basis. We might be a little better at treating this or that, but ultimately all of us will die and for most of us it will be after prolonged (and expensive) illness.
Finally, the fear of litigation also cannot be overestimated. Many unnecesary tests and procedures are done to "cover you ass" creating more inefficiencies in the system.
I realize this is off topic for Peak Oil, but being a non-energy person, I rarely get to contribute on anything where I am expert and I just can't resist!
Phineas Gage, MD
Looking at it from an Energy perspective, all that has changed is energy substitution. Electricity as opposed to people.
It's true that things can't go on this way forever, but they will be propped up just as long as possible.
Me. too. Messes up my short term memory. I need to draw a map.
Not a small number but not too dominant either and not likely to drop to zero overnight.
As a ratio of exports, 243.5/762 = about 32%
More interesting, the fact China exports are 41% of the economy.
GDP to exceed US$1.85 trillion in 2005
US-China Trade Statistics and China's World Trade Statistics 1995-2005