As the most populous state and the largest gasoline market in the nation, success in reducing oil consumption there could have national repercussions.

I agree completely, but Prop 87 will not do this quickly enough or do enough.

A quote from Ed Tennyson on what HAS WORKED in California

I have just gone through motor fuel consumption for 2002 and find California at 509 gallons per year per capita. That is up only one percent from ten years prior. The nation is up 14 percent. to 575 gallons per capita per year. Saving 66 gallons per capita (apparently) California people are savng two billion gallons of motor fuel a year, worth $ 6 billion per year with national defense advantages as well,.
This is a very crude measure but it does suggest a payoff for more electric rail operations. Calllofornia has vastly improved its rail transit service over the past decade with expansions in all major areas.
Not only that but in every case except San Jose [my edit from Santa Clara] the new rail lines are moving people at less cost per passenger- mile than buses or automobiles saving still more money.

Below is a list of projects that WILL SAVE GAS IN CALIFORNIA and will NOT GET FEDERAL FUNDING FOR YEARS

Prop 87 monies could build these projects promptly with minimal (say 20% instead of 50% federal funding like Seattle) or no FTA funds.  Unlike ethanol, Urban Rail becomes more useful the worse things become with oil.  In most cases, all one has to do is buy more vehicles to expand capacity (LA Blue Line may be an exception and require some capital improvements to line).

More Urban Rail (quickly) is the proven method to reduce CA oil dependence !

Two of the three highest impact projects in the US are in Los Angeles

Light Rail Connector between Gold and Blue Lines
Red Line subway extension down to UCLA and then to Santa Monica

Also (not comphrensive list)
LA - Vermont subway, Green Line to LAX and then north to Santa Monica, capacity expansions for Blue lIne, Expo & Gold line extensions, streetcar feeders in downtown, "shelved" plans for hundreds of electric trolley buses

San Diego - North extension and then West Extension from UCSD

San Jose - BART to SJ, Light Rail extensions south

Bay Area - eBART, BART north to Marin County, third BART tunnel, electrify Caltran from San Jose to SF, more trolley lines in SF

Sacramento has more expansion plans on drawing board

Orange County may revisit Light Rail as Peak Oil approaches

That's interesting that California gasoline consumption has not gone up as much as the rest of the USA. However I think you are jumping to conclusions to say that this is because of rail. We would need to see more evidence to figure out what is the cause (probably more than one thing).

California has considerably higher gas prices than the rest of the country, for example. Yesterday's price report still has California above $3, while the US average has been lower than $3 for several weeks. Maybe these high prices have played a role.

Another possible difference is increasing urbanization of the state. As the demographics have shifted from republican to democrat we might have seen an increase in the percentage of people who live in or near cities, decreasing driving distances.

The point is that in a state as large, populous, and geographically and demographically diverse as California, you will probably not find one factor that drives gasoline usage. Whether railroad travel is playing a significant role is not possible to determine from the evidence given.

Also, you can get those good gas-consumption numbers by simply importing lots of poor people who only get around by bus or bicycle, and who have large familes thus raising the capita in per-capita. Also, Chinese and Indian etc immigrants here, while middle class, are typically single-car families with lots of kids, again the good numbers are the result of tons of poeple coming in.
I sometimes wonder if California's per capita gasoline consumption is limited by its gridlock.  I mean, Jevons advocates ... come here and try to rack up that greater consumption.

(I understand that a gridlocked car gets lousy mileage, but I think the congestion keeps a greater number of cars from even making the attempt.)