Ms Cohen's phrase

"I would like to say at the beginning that the goal of Prop 87 is to reduce the use of oil"

seems to me like the Bush admin saying that the goal of the invasion of Iraq was to find and eliminate WMD.  Sure, that would be nice, but not the main goal.  

The main goal of this legislation seems to be to find a way through technology and subsidy to continue the drive-everywhere-for-everything lifestyle that exists.   How else would you explain the fact that there is no mention of supporting smart land-use and effective mass public transportation ?   The part about the tax on oil extraction will probably slightly benefit California by making it slightly less attractive to deplete its reserves as quickly, but the odd phrase about not allowing this cost to be passed to consumers, shows that continued consumption growth is at the very least not looked at as a problem.  

Most of this debate is over the question of whether or not ethanol/biofuels will ever be an economically (without subsidy) viable liquid fuel, but a lot more of it should be over the effect of large-scale "crops for fuel" on ecological systems and food production, and the often very good technical debates on these subject overlook the more fundamental question of whether any of it is sustainable for any significant time period without significant changes to how we inhabit the landscape and operate our civilization.

First, apologies I should have said Dr. Cohen.  

Also, people should check out the info on 87 here

http://www.ss.ca.gov/elections/elections_vig.htm

In the arguments for and against (particularly against), there is a lot of mention about how 87 would make California oil less desireable.  I thought this would be one of the better things it would do for California.  The oil will still be there for use at some later time, why the rush to deplete your own resource?  What's wrong with using up all the Middle Eastern oil first ?  

The main goal of this legislation seems to be to find a way through technology and subsidy to continue the drive-everywhere-for-everything lifestyle that exists.

And if it results in people doing this more efficiently, sustainably and polluting less?

People have needed and wanted personal transportation since the beginning of civilization: the horse.  

This is not a new desire, nor one that you can beat out of people.

How else would you explain the fact that there is no mention of supporting smart land-use and effective mass public transportation ?  

Great ideas, but those are more regulatory than technical problems and it's not clear that research money helps a large amount.

Research money will help create electric and hybrid busses as well as autos.

I agree. While I have big issues with humongous vehicles driving wastefully everywhere and the fragmentation of families as they drive to soccer, cheerleading, etc all over kingdom come and never have a meal together, I think the desire for mobility, flexibility and exploration is very human and not in itself evil or wrong. A case in point is private aviation, a passion for my father and several friends. He built his own airplane and loves the experience of flight, as people have dreamed of since imagination was created. I think it's tragic that such activities (in my judgement) will be relegated to history as a result of peak oil. It will be the end of a real dream and passion for uncounted numbers of people. I don't see general aviation surviving peak oil except in an extremely limited form.

Same could be said for NASCAR, etc for other people. We shouldn't delight in their loss. This is a sobering time and we do need to learn not to waste, but there is a difference between a moral value and a social need. I also believe that once it is clearly established as a social necessity, the moral value will adjust accordingly, like sprinkling lawns during a drought - what had been fine and routine becomes socially unacceptable not because it's inherently wrong, but because it is wrong and maladaptive under the new circumstances.

And if it results in people doing this more efficiently, sustainably and polluting less?

That would be better, but even that won't be the result.  Fossil fuels are too valuable and convienent.  They will be burned, even if some Californians run their cars on Sorgum and corn.  

People have needed and wanted personal transportation since the beginning of civilization: the horse.

And before that: the feet.  Nobody is questioning the need to get around.  Or, even if we should have artificial (man-made) conveyances.  It is a question of whether you want your life to depend on it though.

Great ideas, but those are more regulatory than technical problems and it's not clear that research money helps a large amount.

I agree, we know what to do, research not required.  It does take a long time to change out transportation infrastructure, relocalize schools etc. so the more time wasted, the harder it will be for those who continue on the wrong path.  

That would be better, but even that won't be the result.  Fossil fuels are too valuable and convienent.  They will be burned, even if some Californians run their cars on Sorgum and corn.

Yes, of course.  I want that amount of fossil fuel to be as low as reasonably possible.

I think that realistically, given the actual constitutency of people's desires, rather than what we may want them to act like, promoting technology for low-fossil-consumption vehicles will be far more effective in overall impact than trains.

This isn't a judgement call on what people ought to do but what realistically might happen.   The problem is that changing living and mass transportation means changing housing patterns; and that has a much longer turnover rate than even vehicles.  There is huge investment and costs there; people cannot afford to move into (non-existent) dense housing now so that future rail system will be feasible.

You can't change the facts that with any kind of realistically feasible trains (which I support where realistic) most people in California will be out of range to use them.  (Most of the state doesn't live in SF, where transit can work, and they do have trains and trolleys.)  One end of their stop may be close enough to walk or bike, but often the other one isn't.    It is hard to create massive new rights of way for rails which will involve condemning swathes of neighborhoods which will upset people greatly.  

This is my position.  I understand and agree that much of the problem is a result of poor land-use policies which induces excessive automobile dependency.   But the turds of climate and peak oil are already hitting the fan today. And we need to quickly move to whatever technology and system is realistically likely to work as deeply and quickly as possible, including the realities of society, government, and people's needs.

Punishing them for living where they are (as if they really have a choice in zoning) by having the oil price skyrocket and tell them to hike 2.5 miles to a train which doesn't yet go anywhere they need to, is not a winning strategy.  They will drive and complain about government wasting their tax money on pointless crap.

Imagine you gave people a choice.  Suppose you could get, for free, one of two things:

(a) a modification to your car which doubled the fuel effiency per dollar and was good for the environment

(b) a better subway and rail system

which would they choose?  I'd estimate it would go 85:15 for the first.  Given delays it would be (b) "in 15 years" and (a) "in 5 years" and almost everybody would choose a.

By the way, I fully support reintegration of electrified trains as replacements for petroleum-dependent long-distnace cargo hauling.  The needs work better that way.

And before that: the feet.  Nobody is questioning the need to get around.  Or, even if we should have artificial (man-made) conveyances.  It is a question of whether you want your life to depend on it though.

Your life always depended on it.  If you were lame, and had no horse, you would starve without kindness of others.   Horses or other domesticated transportation animals were critical to human survival for most civilizations more complex and densely populated than hunter-gatherers.

How else would you explain the fact that there is no mention of supporting smart land-use and effective mass public transportation ?

"Smart" land-use is in the eye of the beholder, a concoction devised by urban architects who want to be dictator. Most people do not want to be crammed into dense cities, with their crime and incessant racket. After all, any style whatever of music (etc.) coming 24/7/365 from one or another of one's far-too-numerous city neigbors is thumping rubbish at 3AM when all one desperately needs is some damned sleep. If you can't imagine what the problem is, get a DVD of the classic old TV show, The Honeymooners.

Public transportation is still a delusion, pie in the sky, a hopeless basket-case, partly because it is mired in impossibly expensive Federal regulations. In my town, the "operating cost" of a bus ride was about $3.30 several years ago, probably approaching $4 now. That includes no road tax on the fuel and no payment for the bus itself. Driving a car costs - on the same basis - maybe 25-35 cents a mile. Driving is as cheap as, or cheaper than, the bus, and despite traffic, it's a hell of a lot more timely and dependable. And the car runs on Sunday nights. And the car can take you on a weekend trip to a nice park out in the country, where the bus doesn't even go.

The apparent cheapness of public transit is owed solely to massive subsidies from those eternal chumps, the taxpayers. After all, we'd all see driving a Hummer as quite cheap if "somebody else" paid for 3/4 of our "operating cost" and the vehicle itself cost us nothing. Such lavish subsidies would be utterly unsustainable, except that hardly anyone outside Manhattan and Brooklyn travels much by transit.

And never mind rail transit, which is even more expensive. The heavy cost I just cited, well in excess of the cost of driving a car, is just for the miserable, stinky, infrequent, unreliable, perenially-late, slow-as-molasses, stop at every corner, diesel bus.

Now, what people might be forced to settle for if things eventually head towards the doom end of the possible range could be quite a story. But - and get over it - people are not going to go there voluntarily, because it's quite obviously not worth going there until and unless there's obviously no conceivable alternative here and now.

If you agree to stop taking my earnings to subsidize any and all of your car infrastructure, like roads, bridges, tunnels, middle east garrisons etc, I will gladly give up any amount you think you are paying to subsidize transit.  We can remove the existing dictatorial land-use restrictions and let the free market go.  I'm all for that.  
there is an empirical example of little or no land-use regulations in a major city:   Houston.

And it a titanically sprawlacious car-dependent POS.

Ah yes, but with heavily subsidized auto infrastructure.  
Paul

You've missed a significant externality.  The users of public transport don't clutter up the roads for other users.

Go to London, or New York, or Washington DC, on a transit strike day.  The cities grind to a halt.

Even in a city like Los Angeles, where the public transport system was removed by GM in the 40s, if you shut down the buses, a very significant proportion of the population can't get to work.  Yes we are talking clerks, janitors, maids (this is LA after all) but those people also make the city run.

Public transport never 'pays off' in terms of its own fares, because it can't capture this externality (plus lower pollution and other societal benefits).

In addition, most of the costs of owning a car are fixed (depreciation and insurance).  So the marginal cost of an additional drive, once you have a car, is very small.

By contrast, a bus fare has to recoup some of the fixed costs of the bus system.  So the user is taking on a fuller piece of the total cost (and a personal cost is also a societal cost).

A better comparison would be to compare a bus ride with the cost of renting a car for that purpose.

Public transport works well, especially in cities with populations above 10,000 people per square mile.  In the US, the centre of many older cities (especially on the east coast), in Canada and Europe, most cities.  Once cities get to a certain level of traffic congestion (Denver) they start to provide public transport.

Medium distance rail (100 miles to 500 miles) the case is more complex.  But if you include a fair charge for the carbon cost of flying, plus the noise you inflict on the people below you when you fly, then rail looks a lot more competitive.

In practice in Europe the train is an excellent substitute for planes on up to 5 hour journeys.  In the US, where there has been both bad management and bad investment, this is probably not the case.

The US probably has room for 4 or 5 economic train routes: Boston-NYC-Phil-Washington, San Francisco-San Diego, Houston-Dallas Ft Worth, LA to Las Vegas.  Anyone think of any others?

Chicago-Detroit.

I'd be curious what the total costs are for rail per passenger mile.  Alan?