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293 comments on DrumBeat: September 20, 2006
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California is becoming notorious for passing meaningless legislation with great goals that are simply ignored, see most recently their Global Warming Legislation. Next to DC, Sacramento is the most broken government in the republic, at some point we're all going to find out how wonderful it is to have a government completely corrupt and unable to accomplish anything - of, by, and for the corporations - even the libertarians might find this a little distasteful.
Los Angeles County has 5 supervisors for over 10 million people -- that's local government! At the nation's founding the constitution had 35,000 people for each Congressmen. The fact is the architecture of our government is broken, the old infrastructure of our politics has been destroyed, a completely vial and corrupt process of money, polls, and television rules.
We have a broken political and government system, it desperately needs reform.
On.
Correct.
Our entire system of government is broken. We are seeing the results we are seeing because the system has become clogged with vested interests.
Where's the political Drain-O?
Hugo Chavez makes some caustic comments about the smell of sulpher that hovers around the White House and proposes to Americans that they read one of their own as a first step in clearing the odour.
But his sense of humour and irony, his subtlety (LOL), even the accuracy of his content, puts the great white chief to shame. I'd pull out this one paragraph as being a poignant and perceptive observation:
"Yesterday, the secretary general practically gave us his speech of farewell. And he recognized that over the last 10 years, things have just gotten more complicated; hunger, poverty, violence, human rights violations have just worsened. That is the tremendous consequence of the collapse of the United Nations system and American hegemonistic pretensions."
Hugo is entertaining in an over the top kind of way, but at least he spouts some ideas and very occasional interesting observation. GW makes me shiver with his simplistic (much more so than Hugo's) mechanistic attempts - apparently mostly successful - at selected voter button pressing.
Bush's tax cuts for the rich, and Hugo's education programs for the poor for example.
I guess that answers it.
The only thing they need it would seem is Diebold Voting machines to to ensure No "Left-Wings" would get elected.
BTW, the "Coup" that nearly toppled them was staged by the CIA, not Unlike the successful one that changed Iran from a democractically elected president to a dictator in 1953, or the other hundred other examples.
<SNIP>
"In 1953, Iran had a democratic government. This is a very jarring thing for us to realize now because we are not used to seeing the word "Iran" and the word "democracy" in the same sentence. The fact is, however, that Iran was developing a long, rocky but democratic path in the early 1950s. For reasons which my book explains in great detail, the United States decided, in the summer of 1953, to go in and overthrow that democratic government. The result of that coup was that the Shah was placed back on his throne. He ruled for 25 years in an increasingly brutal and repressive fashion. His tyranny resulted in an explosion of revolution in 1979 the event that we call the Islamic revolution. That brought to power a group of fanatically anti-Western clerics who turned Iran into a center for anti-Americanism and, in particular, anti-American terrorism. "
http://www.buzzflash.com/interviews/03/07/29_kinzer.html
"There is nothing new in the world except the history you do not know."
- Harry Truman
Same thing with Iran.
Chavez, like Bush, is a symptom of dysfunction and polarization.
(Yawn) Spare me your cliches.
read about the people in venezuela from their point of view...more poor people are dying and suffering since his rule than before he came into power. chavez cares more about his own agenda than the people of his country and wins hearts of poor people in other countries by throwing oil around when he should be doing more for the poor in his own country. its sad because we need that oil and allow ourselves to be insulted and disgraced because we are so dependent on the resource. chavez needs to recheck himself and there should be more news on how venezuelans are being treated. chavez is a charade and we're allowing ourselves to give into his nonsense.
"...there exists nonetheless sufficient factual evidence to prove that Chavez' regime is by far the most corrupt that Venezuela has ever seen. For instance the irresponsible manner in which the country has been indebted. In 1998 the internal outstanding debt was close to $2.000 billion, in contrast to $16.000 billion at present. Venezuela's banking system holds 64% of the internal debt at times when PDVSA's output capacity has decreased significantly. This translates into larger chunks of the budget having to be destined to service the debt, both internal and external, placing an extraordinary burden in the country's finances. The $2.500 billion deposited in the Inversion and Macro Stabilization Fund (FIEM), were pilfered by Chavez.... "
http://www.hacer.org/current/Vene52.php
In my own county we have 1 house elected representative for 45 000 people, but that's not usual, 100 000 is more usual.
Anyway, as the total number of citizen increase, the number of people represented by one representative increase even more. That's because you cannot increase effectively the number of representative too much. At one point even more representative does not increase actual democracy.
I can see that even in small local groups. It is often more efficient to work with a small number of people (3 to 7) than working with larger groups (8 or more). As the number of people increase, the increment of added value does not increase alike.
I did not make any actual research on this, it is based on observation of a number of groups (more than 30) I have worked with in the last 8 years.
The increment of added value in a group is somewhat following the same curve than the oil "creaming curve" that you saw in some Mathew Simmons presentation.
Also in any group of more than 10 people the following apply :
1 leader, no matter what
3 or 4 people involved more than the others
3 somewhat present but with less valuable participation
2 or 3 that we see only once in a while and giving only marginal effort.
I don't want to imply that elected representative are subject to the same distribution, but I don't think that I'm very far from the reality.
We have passed the point where a Revolution could do any good. We have gotten a National Government that will not allow a Revolution in the first place.
I have Fixed it so that people may comment on my short story about "A future as I saw it" What is still scary is I think it will be sooner rather than later.
dan-ur.blogspot.com
Have fun, just remember we have the technology to do it today.
'Time to hold these companies responsible,' attorney general says
MSNBC staff and news service reports
URL: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14924286/
Updated: 12:13 a.m. MT Sept 20, 2006
SAN FRANCISCO - California filed suit against the world's largest carmakers on Wednesday, charging that greenhouse gases from their vehicles have cost the state millions of dollars.
State Attorney General Bill Lockyer said the lawsuit filed in U.S. District Court in Northern California was the first of its kind to seek to hold manufacturers liable for the damages caused by their vehicles' emissions.
Lockyer, a Democrat, said the complaint states that under federal and state common law the automakers have created a "public nuisance" by producing "millions of vehicles that collectively emit massive quantities of carbon dioxide."
Carbon dioxide emissions and other greenhouse gases have been linked to global warming.
Lockyer's office said that "under the law, a `public nuisance' is an unreasonable interference with a public right, or an action that interferes with or causes harm to life, health or property."
"Global warming is causing significant harm to California's environment, economy, agriculture and public health. The impacts are already costing millions of dollars and the price tag is increasing," Lockyer said in a statement. "Vehicle emissions are the single most rapidly growing source of the carbon emissions contributing to global warming, yet the federal government and automakers have refused to act. It is time to hold these companies responsible for their contribution to this crisis."
Lockyer said he would seek "tens or hundreds of millions of dollars" from the automakers.
The lawsuit names Ford, General Motors, Toyota and the North American units of DaimlerChrysler, Honda and Nissan.
Activists welcomed the move.
"Industries responsible for the pollution that drives global warming should expect more suits like this until we have effective national legislation to stop global warming," David Doniger, a staffer with the Natural Resources Defense Council, said in a statement.
Carmakers earlier sued to block a 2005 California law that would require them to reduce greenhouse gas emissions on new vehicles.
California and 11 other states are also involved in a lawsuit challenging the Bush administration's refusal to regulate greenhouse gas emissions. The Supreme Court is expected to hear that case during its upcoming term.
Reuters and sylvester80 contributed to this report.
URL: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14924286/
Let me rephrase that and add a bit:
Activists, MOST OF WHOM DRIVE, welcomed the move. "Why should I, the user, be held accountable when I can point fingers at the dealer?", one activist asked.
We are never going to get anywhere until people are willing to accept a higher degree of personal responsibility for the situation we are in.
Good point. Until everyone understands and then cooperates to mitigate the Tragedy of the Commons finger-pointing gets us nowhere. Optimizing the squeeze through the Dieoff Bottleneck by detritus powerdown and biosolar powerup, along with universal cooperation on voluntary birth controls is the best strategy to reduce the coming postPeak violence. Will we have the wisdom to proactively restructure our society to localized permaculture with 60-75% of us laboring in the fields?
Otherwise: Requiem
---------------------------------------------
It really will be back to the good old days! Shouts of "BRING ME HIS HEAD" will ring through the land, slaves, scalps, souvenirs and trophies of all sorts, ... exciting possibilities limited only by our ingenuity.
The good news is that recycling will finally become fashionable! We will see feral children mining the dumps for plastic to burn (Pampers) so they can heat the hovels they are forced to live in. The strongest kids will set traps for fresh meat -- rats -- while the weaker kids will eat anything they can cram into their mouths (old shoes, styrofoam peanuts, newspaper soup). Pandemics will sweep the world, punctuated every so often by explosions as abandoned nuke plants go critical. Leaking dumps and tanks will spew PCBs and radioactive hazwaste into the feral food chain spawning surprising new shapes for young mothers to enjoy nursing. [54] Toxic chemical fires, blowing garbage and trash, genetic mutations, filthy water, cannibalism ...
As the Easter Islanders say: "The flesh of your mother sticks between my teeth".[55]
The situation will be especially serious for a short time because the population will keep rising due to the lags inherent in the age structure and social adjustment. Then mercifully, the population will drop sharply as the death rate is driven upward by lack of food and health services.[56] Trapped in obsolete belief systems, Americans won't even know why their society disintegrated.
A hundred thousand years from now -- once the background radiation levels drop below lethality -- a new Homo mutilus will crawl out of the caves to elect a leader. Although we have no idea what mutilus might look like, evolutionary theory can still tell us who will win the election. He will be the best liar running on a platform to end hunger by controlling nature.
How could it be otherwise?
------------------------------
Recall my postings on the false detritus-fueled humanimal ecosystem that overlies our actual ecosystem. Until we are willing to cooperate in mitigation of both sides of Jay's Thermo-Gene Collision--we will be going in the opposite direction of optimizing the coming squeeze. Such is life.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Cheers
I welcome this suit.
Robert Rapier:
As to your comments about activitists, so what? Their position is utterly irrelevent to the State's case. It is relevent apparently as a chance for Robert Rapier to again place himself in some kind of ethical castle far above the "activists".
Unfortunately the climate problem is global and urgent. We need to accomplish all sorts of steps at the same time. It is simply not workable that we shall do nothing until all people, as judged by Robert Rapier, have accepted personal responsibility.
Robert, it becomes apparent that for all your thoughtful posts, when it comes to action you stand for absolutely nothing. I say this because the only actions you find acceptable require absolute ethical purity: Let he who doesn't use oil products cast the first stone. Sorry but the efforts to protect the environment are mostly not about your personal need to judge others and protect your imaginary ethical castle.
Roy
It is not the ethics. It is the hypocrisy. We always wish to point fingers at someone else. We want to pass an initiative like Prop 87, because it punished oil companies and removes personal responsibility. We now want to punish auto companies for enabling our habits. It is ludicrous. What I stand for is personal responsibility. That is one reason favor a gas tax. He who uses the most fossil fuels will pay the largest penalty. Individual accountability.
Incidentally, I will also point out that you are far off the mark. If I don't stand for what you stand for, it doesn't mean I stand for absolutely nothing. I stand for many things, among them higher gas taxes, conservation, solar energy, biomass gasification, additional research for cellulosic ethanol and biodiesel, etc.
But I believe hypocrisy should be pointed out when it occurs, and that is the issue here. We do ourselves no favors by pointing fingers at others for our oil addiction. The problem is mine and yours, not the car company's problem. If I conserved and bought fuel-efficient transportation, the oil and automotive companies would have to adapt or die.
... maybe get rid of those pesky catalytic covnerters as well ...
No. Gas taxes, for instance, are not "individual action." But we could get higher gas taxes passed if individuals stopped looking to scapegoat others for this situation. Blame the oil companies, and raise their taxes. Blame the automakers, and sue them. But a gas tax? Political suicide, because the individual doesn't accept that he is the problem.
If we understood and accepted that the problem is on the demand side, we would have a real chance of implementing meaningful change. CAFE standards? A decent start, but meaningless if peak comes sooner rather than later. By the time the average mileage of all cars on the road is significantly impacted, it may be too late.
You insist that this is scapegoating, etc. Maybe. And maybe GM's bankrolling of hydrogen could be labled distraction. And Exxon's bankrolling of climate critics could be labeled as decept.
I think you are falling into the trap of demanding the perfect here. Are you really going to convince every actor in the economy to rational and moral action?
... maybe you ask for that, and maybe you ask for it "symmetrically" with moral vendors and consumers ... but will that "meaningful" if peak oil comes sooner rather than later? By the time the average consumer and company is convinced, it may be too late.
No, I don't demand it. Maybe the lawsuit does a bit of good. Maybe Prop 87 does indirectly reduce consumption. I am honestly not sure how I would vote on it, and if I demanded perfection it would be a no-brainer to vote against it.
What is frustrating for me is that we don't accept more responsibility for our personal contribution to Peak Oil and Global Warming, and therefore we have to settle for very tiny incremental changes. I don't know that we have time for that.
If everyone accepted personal responsibility, and were willing to take serious steps toward mitigation, we could postpone Peak Oil talk for a long, long time by slappping on a $4/gal gasoline tax. But such things are only possible if we stop pointing fingers at everyone else and accept personal responsibility.
I think you misinterpret that this means I advocate primarily individual actions. No. I favor mass action, but meaningful mass action is going to be tough to implement with today's climate of "not my fault."
FWIW, there were some who made the cycnical suggestion that I should not have bought my Prius at all. I just have kept driving my Subaru, and kicked half the purchase-price to movements like this that enforce broader action.
In a pragmatic sense, it might be a dollar better spent.
(BTW, my reaction to the old Forbes quote, as I think about it, is that GM deserves whatever it gets.)
Get that? They couldn't "have the car held hostage to the debates about energy dependence, resource usage, global climate change."
We will NOT deal effectively with Peak Oil and post-Peak Oil if public policy is based on falsehoods and misleading myths. We cannot make effective steps to mitigate Peak Oil if we place our highest priority on dead ends.
Keep up the work of doing good and build thicks walls. I think it is imperative that we have open, sometimes tough, discussions in order to get at the truth. I hope people don't take questions or counter arguments as attacks on them personally.
I much prefer discussing issues with people who disagree with me than having a cheering choir following me about fawning. I suspect you do too.
But other than that, I agree :)
Robert keep up the good work. You are expending the energy a lot of us don't have. Don't think we don't appreciate it. We'd even help, if you asked.
http://www.answers.com/topic/fawn
I was thinking of a deer for some reason. I would have never guessed dog. I learn a new thing every day. Thanks, buddy.
(Why the hell was I thinking about deer?)
http://www.google.co.th/search?hl=th&q=%22Jodi%27s+Fawn%22&meta=
But then again we always knew Stepback was smarter than us. I'm willing to bet it is some distant galaxy, a paradox in quantum physics, or remote science fiction reference.
What's your guess?
Sorry. I mis-rememberized.
The name of the movie was The Yearling.
The boy who cared for the fawn was named Jody.
Can we give Scarlett Johansson a haircut and recast her as the "boy." We'll name her Jody. We'll get a crocodile named "Irwin" to play the fawn. Whaddaya say?
Oh, yeah. This is going on my DVD list. Step Back scores again.
I certainly don't. But things like Roy wrote:
"you stand for absolutely nothing" are well beyond a counter argument. You should also see some of the hate mail I get from time to time. But, probably only about 10% of my e-mail is hate mail.
To those of us who undertake individual action, that always causes some concern. Jevons. Tragedy of the commons. Etc.
So I looked back at past actions, and do you know what I found?
I think I found that individual action really served as a foundation and stimulus, and that when things worked the second stage was broad acceptance, and yes, regulation.
Dolphin free tuna is a classic case. It started as a boycott and ended up as a law.
So where does this tie into your italicized text?
I think we are looking at a transition, one in which we monkeys establish new social norms, and enforce those norms upon others. This is the point where we try to eliminate the free riders, in the economic jargon.
So no, it is not "Why should I, the user, be held accountable when I can point fingers at the dealer?" It is "How can I leverage my behavior out to the society as a whole?"
If GM is a bad monkey, this is the way we scream and throw some .. er, leaves their way.
Here in the south, with 11% geothermal alone, I'd think we beat that 10% claim pretty handily.
Also amusing that by the SCE (or whoever's) rules, "large hydro" (itself 9%) is not counted as an "eligible" renewable.
It was below ten a couple years ago because CA, just like the rest of the country, built almost exclusively new natural gas generation. Anyway, I'm suspect how they managed to bring it up above 10, outside a few megawatts of pv, there's hasnt been much new renewables in CA.
What you are really looking at is a non-depletion argument.
You are looking at secondary environmental damage, which should be examined carefully. If hydro really hurts us more than coal, rip 'em out and build coal plants in their place, right?
I think we'd really be oh so lucky if we could worry about our dams in a coal-free world.
So I'm not on board. I can't drink all the kool-aid. I can't disbelieve SCE numbers on your say-so. I can't classify dams as "non-renewable" just because they have secondary impacts.
The question is how you define renewable. The big dams, well for one thing they are habitat destroyer, for one easy example, they've decimated the salmon population along the Pacific Coast. We still have to eat before taking a hot shower don't we?
The choice isn't between coal and large hydro. America's hyper-consumptive energy waste economy is despicable. We need to first look at the energy content of everything we do and figure out how to use the least amount energy and then second how we can provide the generation to do that. We'd soon find we don't need much coal and no big hydro. Doing the reverse, trying to figure out how to replace current generation to continue our immoral waste is a fool's game and already lost.
I really do.
But short of that, I think I have to play in the real world. If I want to tear down Hoover Dam, I have to name what will replace it.
To me it's not politics to demand impossible changes. It's dreaming.
I don't expect us to build any more big hydro in California, just because the good places are taken. The remaining possible is in Yosemite and even those conspicuous consumers agree building there would be a crime.
It is also very unlikely that we'll get much in-state coal added. Right now they have to build over the boarder or on Indian Reservations.
We could work out where we stand the opposite way, for the purposes of peak oil/gas. That is, calc the oil gas percentage of our electricity generation. It's less than half, which is good from a preparedness standpoint.
The question, as pragmatic citizens, is where to put our efforts. I'll back conservation as a first priority, and wind/solar second ... but don't expect those to do more than slow fossil fuel expansion.
But in this case, I think it is valid to point out that electricity consumers are making the choices they are.
SF would like to expand the existing power plant but the Park Service won't let them. So renewable energy goes to waste and we burn NG and coal instead.
I would like to comment more, but limited time ATM.
Now why 49.9 MW for this new, run-of-the-river hydropower project ?
Because 49.9 MW is "good" small hydro and 50 MW is "bad" large hydro. Absent such idiocies, the project would have been built as a 65 or 70 MW project. PC destroys renewable energy.
I agree with you in that Conservation, wind and solar seem to be the most agreeable solutions.
I'm also like you in that I don't think Hydro is a horrible option. It has problems, but the question is, are those problems better or worse than the alternatives. If forced to choose between coal versus hydro, which one is the better option. Coal I think is by far WAY more destructive both in feeding and polluting stages compared to hydro. People are going to demand a certain level of energy even if we do conserve. So to provide that energy we need as benevolent a method as possible to generate the needed amount.
That being said, we still don't know what the full impact of large scale windfarms and solar farms might have on our environment either. They appear to be more benevolent to the environment, but then we have not implemented them on the same scale that we have with other technologies. What if it turns out that large scale Windfarms alter the weather patterns of a given region by interfering with the flow of low and high pressure fronts.
What if it turns out that massive solar farms cause unintended heating or cooling of the air, or ground which in turn impact the climate in the systems that surround that farm.
The law of unintended consequences has not been anywhere near fully tested in regards to these emerging alternative energy industries.
An article printed several years back in the Houston Chronicle(If I remember right) pointed to a study meteorologists were doing in tracking storms and how they interact with large manmade construction (primarily highways). It found that there was an impact on the heat released from highways, and the movement of small storm systems trying to cross them. On I45(4 to 8 lanes depending on which stretch you are talking about and if you include the notorious Houston feeder roads which flank the highway) it was found that small storm systems would actually change course in small degrees acting as if there was a wall being placed right over the highway. Temp. Readings found exactly that... compared to the ground surrounding the highway, the highway was several degrees warmer and that heat was escaping upward to form a warm wall barrier.
Whose to say these "renewables" don't also have some detrimental effect or at the very least an impact on our environment. Chances are that they do have some effect, and that the effect will be magnified as they become more prevalent. The question then becomes one of is this solution better or worse than the alternative. We can't mitigate all risks, we can just minimize them, and if environmentalists and peak energy critics don't come to grips with this fact, then its likely the worse options such as coal and natural gas are likely to be adopted to solve our energy needs.
but
I think the vast majority of evidence is the effects of wind and PV will be localised.
Wind the big risk is bird and bat strikes. In particular certain species of migratory bats seem attracted to wind turbines-- we don't know why.
Except in the very high risk migration corridors, I think we have to bite the bullet and take the risk. A lot of bird species are doomed in any case if global warming continues.
As to PV and wind changing the weather: well, maybe locally. But since they are exploiting energy that is already there, I don't see it making a huge difference. not even as much as the 'heat sinks' that our urban structures cause.
Exactly. When viewed from a risk management perspective, Solar, Wind, and even Hydro is less threatening to our futures than fossile fuels.
What bugs me about some environmentalists is that they seem too apt to shoot down any alternative if it isn't somehow "perfect". Problem for them and the rest of us humans is we don't have time or knowledge for "perfect" solutions. So we need to buck up and try to take the least imperfect solutions we have available.
It is our politics that is based on dreaming, on hallucinations of neverending and increasing growth in wealth and BTU availability, where every snag we hit can and will be overcome by innovations that grow seemingly effortlessly from our superior science and technological abilities.
What we conveniently overlook is that neither our science nor our politics is able to comprehend, and act according to, the most basic physical laws we know: thermodynamics.
That is the tragedy of mankind: possessing the brains to formulate what amounts to a pretty brilliant understanding of our surroundings, but not the ability to apply that same understanding.
And so is man smarter than yeast? Yes, definitely, but it makes zero difference in the end, because it is not our intelligence that drives us. If it were, we would not be in this mess.
We understand the real world, but we are unable to live in it.
Coal advocates do not get everything they wish for, as an example.
FWIW, I think I've seen an acceleration of response in the last couple years to energy problems. That would make straight-line extrapolations questionable. We need to know if the acceleration will continue, or fall back.
What if those solar stirling engines they are putting out in the desert really work?
When my grandmother was a child, the radio was cutting edge technology. She saw the invention of the home refridgerator. Antibiotics. Vaccines. TV. Jet planes. Landing on the moon.
The unthinkable was done over and over again.
I feel it is important to draw the distinction between fantasy and past history because it allows easier communication. You can say "I know your intution and experience say there will always be growth, let me show you the energy curve that has happened your whole life" and then show them the energy curve coming.
We know that the years of past experience just yield a mirage of the future, but those years are more real for most people than some dry graphs and equations.
http://odograph.com/?p=64
Mine would be expanding current hydro as much as feasible; extracting 5% to 10% more power from existing power plants and building more pumped storage, dams (fewer) and run-of-river schemes (more potential). In some special places, replace dams with run-of-river plus pumped storage elsewhere. plus wind, solar, geothermal & biomass with the minimum nuke needed (~22%) AND ZERO COAL !
Roughly (by energy and 80% of current North American generation)
52% wind
12% hydro
-19% Pumped Storage
+15% Pumped Storage
22% Nuke
18% geothermal, solar thermal, PV, biomass
0% coal
Some combined cycle NG kept for extreme cases of heat, cold & drought (perhaps 1/4 the CO2/MWh of coal)
North American HV DC grid to shift power around.
No this isn't true, all "local" ecosystems combine to form the planet. Again an easy example, the dams on the West coast have decimated the Pacific salmon populations, which then harms everything tied to it. We don't deal with complexity well and the enviroment is a complex system, which we still little understand.
-best
Sound trivial? Consider this: one of the main reasons New Orleans is sinking, aside from the rising sea level, is that silt no longer reaches the coast from the Mississippi river thanks to all the dams and canals.
Umm while I don't dismiss your earlier argument about the interconnectivity of river eco systems, you just undid yourself with the New Orleans example.
There is plenty of mud and crap coming out of the Missippi, so much in fact that I can go down to the beach here in Galveston Texas and see it. On satellite pictures you can see a MONSTER plume of mud and silt spewing into the Gulf of Mexico.
New Orleans is sinking because they built a levy system, and series of dams around the city to protect the city from Mississippi flood waters and GoM tidal/hurricane flooding. New Orleans is blocking the silt locally only. But that shouldn't be confused with the whole of the Mississippi being dammed up and not producing silt down river because that is out and out false.
For a real pretty picture of the Plumes check out
http://epod.usra.edu/archive/epodviewer.php3?oid=54592
If that is the definition, then none of the supposed "renewables" are renewable. All will require maintenance to keep into operation.
Are Solar Panels considered renewable? I would argue that as dust and sand collects on them, that their eventual usefulness will be degraded. As such, I expect there will be workers whose jobs is to keep Solar Panels clean.
Perhaps the problem with Hydro power isn't whether or not its renewable (I think it obviously is), but rather how do we build them in such a manner as to be more maintenance and ecosystem friendly. If we could flush the silt down river instead of letting it build up, would that then solve the problem?
Yes, all renewables eventually fail, but large dams represent a massive investment of manpower, equipment and concrete. For those investments to be considered renewable, the structure must, in my opinion, perform for an extended period. Consider the embodied energy vs. power production over the life of the structure. Consider the difficulty in recycling the structure. There are solar panels from the early sixties which still perform quite well; approximately 70-80% of rated power with only very gradual declines in power production. No one really knows how long modern solar panels will last, but a century seems possible, maybe longer.
Certain sites are more siltation-friendly, and yes, dams can be designed to flush silt to some degree. Typically, flushing sediments obviates other dam functions like: flood control, reservoir, and steady power production because it is done during maximum flow periods. Indeed, flushing works mostly at the dam end; sedimentation occurring in the distal portions of the reservoir is extremely difficult to address.
Given that many desert dams are distant from end users, the transmission losses also effect the "renewable-ness" of dams. 4000 watts of rooftop solar may be worth twice the dam-generated electricity due to distributed generation factors.
That said, I am not against hydroelectric power; but I do understand why its renewable credentials are doubted in some quarters.
Dredging costs, either by clamshell or suction, are significant and the energy spent dredging most be "charged" against the dams production.
FWIW, I think the scale and types of damage that large dams do are incredebly dependent upon the environmental setting, and the type of pre-fill preparation that is done.
For instance, if you are drowning a forest, you want to harvest every stick of that biomass and use it effectively, rather than just soak it and let it bubble away as co2 and ch4.
In an earlier post, someone said (Alanfrombigeasy?) that a silted-up dam, rendered into a waterfall, could still provide power using run of the river technology. I would be interested if anyone has any comparative data on this. Certainly Niagara Falls generates a lot of electricity, and substituting rock for sand, it has the appearance of a silted dam.
Is silting ultimately a problem for electricity generation? I would think so since a reservoir allows for optimal control over the rate of flow through turbines and can therefore respond to fluctuating demand, as well as provide a 'reservoir' for fluctuating wind energy, as Sharman's paper on Danish windpower/neighbouring country hydropower demonstrates. Still, it seems logical that, since the work is provided by falling water, electricity can still be generated as long as the concrete/dam material endures.
Nonetheless, there are many reasons to question the ultimate value to society of electricity from at least some dams. For thousands of years, the Egyptians successfully used irrigation to support rich agricultural production alongside the Nile. Annual flooding replenished nutrients and flushed salts into the sea. The Aswan Dam changed this equasion and now salinity is emerging as a problem, as well as dependence on synthetic fertilizers. Is the electricity worth the price?
There's a topic for someone's dissertation.
It seems to avoid the downstream user problems of dams, yet provide localized power in the business/home that needs it.
Your idea would have a minimal environmental impact because it would only take a small portion of the energy carried by the river. This is why alot of us here favor scaling down energy consumption first, and then scaling up renewables.
Or so I remember from econ.
What kind of world is it where a strip mall has more value than a forest?
Unfortunately, as you pointed out the other day, the rules of economics consider natural resources to be infinite, so under those rules, the paddle wheel is probably not economically viable.
Step out side that box. I saying from econ we learn about externalized costs associated with large scale macro damage that isn't counted per unit b/c the margins are fuzzy. However when you aggregate that up to the system wide numbers and you see the big picture. Think of the damage done to the ecosystem through burning fossil fuels. The people who sell it don't bear the cost of damage that it does, we as a people and now planet, do. We pay in increased breathing diseases, problems ,illnesses etc.
The whole gammit of stuff that is caused by burning this crap is paid for by each individual, thus the true costs to burn fossil fuel per gallon isn't $3 it's probably significantly higher. How high who knows, but to even grasp at that kind of number you need good data that correlates well between past generation #'s compared to now. This is why there are few econ studies on what the true cost is.
The above link is about the silting of Lake Eufaula but it also contains a picture of the very silted up Falcon Lake. It is not much of a lake anymore, mostly silt.
The amount of silting depends on several things, primarily the amount of silt carried by the river. For this reason the Dams on the Tennessee river silt up very slowely. There are many dams on the river therefore the silt dumped in any reservoir must come primarily from feeder rivers downstream of the last upstream dam. That is the silt in the entire Tennessee River will be dumped in a dozen or so reservoirs, reducing the silt in any one reservoir. But this is not so for many other man made reservoirs. And yes some do silt up in as little as two decades, and many silt up in four or five decades.
Heh, heh. He could have just as easily said one cubic meter of silt displaces 61023 cubic inches of water ;^)
Few, in any, run-of-river projects do. Clean water rivers do not silt up (nothing measurable after 60+ years on the Sog in Iceland for example.
Others have good silt regimes and flush once a year to once a decade.
Karahnjukar has a 400 year life span and could, if they limited flushing turn a dead river today (all natural) into a salmon river by limiting flushing to every third year or so.
Even all lakes are temporary and after a few tens of thousands of years silt up. The Great Lakes, carved out by the last Ice Age, will silt up in about a hundred thousand years or so. If swift water carries silt to still water where it settles, it will eventually silt up. End of story.
And then there's this; what is most renewable about dams is their emission of greenhouse gases.
As for the Cree, their health problems relate overwhelmingly to cultural discontinuity and economic marginalization, leading to a loss of self-esteem and the consequences therefrom. Moreover, many suffer the effects of a disastrous adoption of the worst of 'western' food to their dietary regime, not necessarily from choice. These problems affect Cree and other native peoples living far away from any Hydro Electric watersheds or dams, as well as those of Northern Quebec.
There are problems with damming rivers, to be sure. Some situations are much worse than others. I favour the removal of many dams. But are we going to have a greater or lesser problem with lead, mercury and cadmium pollution without hydro-electricity?
The emissions are there to stay, and continue, that's what the article says quire clearly. No difference 10 years from now. I don't see how that could be unclear if you read it.
There are large mercury pollution problems in the population that lives close to these projects. Dragging in other 'cultural' problems is plain weird, and has no connection to the issue. This is a very specific form of pollution, that relates directly to hydro dams. Why not read what they have to say? They can explain their health problems better than you can, including this one.
The mercury is specifically released through the inundation of large amounts of land and land-based vegetation. It would under 'normal' circumstances remain in the soil and plants. Nothing ambiguous about it. Did you read it at all?
Doesn't this happen in every wetland every year?
The trees decay once and release greenhouse emissions once. After a number of years the amount of CO2 and methane emissions changes. Logically it declines at some point.
As is pointed out above, the reqrowth and death of plantlife on the shoreline involves sequestration and release.
On the other hand, the emissions from hydrocarbon generated electricity increase as the quality of the hydrocarbon decreases and as the amount of hydrocarbon consumed to produce the fuel increases.
Therefore overtime the equasion changes. The ratio provided for the dam in South America in relation to hydro-carbon generated electricity is not stagnant and logically changes in favour, from an emissions standpoint, of the hydro electric dam. So I asked you if you could provide information on the rate of change in this ratio.
I'm well aware of the adverse affects of mercury contamination from hydro development for Cree and others, especially those dependent on traditional fisheries. I am also aware that the mercury contamination is a relatively minor cause of poor physical and mental health outcomes experienced by first nations since Europeans began the rape of this continent. I was only trying to provide context and did not wish to diminish the nefarious effects of mercury contamination, especially for those people who were unaware that their traditional fish diet was post reservoir killing them.
Are we going to have a greater or lesser problem with mercury and other contaminants without hydro-electricity? I ask this question not in the sense of dam or no dam, but in the sense of hydro-electricity or coal-generated electricity, coal being the evident worldwide preferred option, when alternatives are denied. I should have been clearer.
I must say that I couldn't find anything on the link to the Cree website re mercury pollution. Perhaps I missed it. I did note comments from various representatives of the Cree relating to the economic opportunities presented by hydro development. It is perhaps regrettable that so much has been lost, but life goes on and I'm glad that the Cree are insisting on leading their own way out of the wilderness of despair that has afflicted so many of their communities in recent decades.
I would be interested in learning if the rate of methyl mercury formation declined over time, it seems logical that it would, and if methyl mercury deteriorates or is dispersed over time. Maybe someone has some leads?
Direct mercury emmissions from coal burning and fell in an area with few natural buffers/adsorption agents. And the acid rain allows leaching from the ground (this has been noted in the US NE and most boreal rains are naturally neutral. Add acid rain from coal burning > leaching).
I would be interested if you can provide evidence that undercutting is a real problem.
Done properly, the silt basin could turn into fine farmland.
I've got to believe that the equivalent megawattage in distributed small dams would have more environmental impact than one large one.
It's like thinking that once we go back to the stone age, we'll all just be camping out and cooking our dinners over six billion wood fires. Probably won't really be an improvement over fossil fuel...
I can see the utility of funding small hydro along with other alternatives, and I can see that for the purposes of funding and reward people would make that distinction.
BUT, as a consumer wanting to get off fossil fuels, do we really count large hydro as non-renewable? I hope not.
I've always enjoyed your posts.
Large hydro is a tough one. I think technically that it does fit in the "renewables" category. However, it is a renewable that is demonstrably highly destructive to ecosystems. This goes beyond fish runs. The reduction of salmon along many Western rivers apparently has had large-scale systemic consequences for the terrestrial ecosystems that the rivers course through. One set of links includes bears eating salmon, then carrying all that good fishy stuff in their gut as they travel inland, and finally expelling the associated nutrients (a bear processed "fish fertilizer", if you will) throughout the surrounding forests. If I remember correctly, there apparently has been a forest response to the loss of these nutrients, with reduced growth.
This is just one example of what large-scale changes on major rivers can do. Given the time scale of nutrient cycling, I think we're just beginning to see the kinds of effects that large hydro projects can have.
If you can locate a few, read some of these peer-reviewed articles.
-best
The current Tanzania situation should be sobering. 60% of their power is hydro, the dams are drying up, and the economy is devastated. This is real, not a concept or concern to be dismissed.
-best
Of course those who plan on getting electricity from their project for 100 or 400 or 1000 years and think climate change is on the same time scale, if it exists at all, can continue with their dreaming.
The point that the whole US was much dryer in the mid 1500s is fascinating and is part of the 'great mystery'.
To wit, it is now estimated that the population of North and South America in 1491 was 10 times what we thought it was- -there were substantial urban communities in the Midwest for example. Yet by the time colonisation began in earnest in the mid 1500s, and in the 1600s in North America, much of the population was gone-- the Midwest was governed by nomads.
Part of the answer is disease. Smallpox in particular. When George Vancouver toured the Pacific Northwest in the late 1780s (I think) he found villages that were abandoned, so many of their inhabitants had died of smallpox.
It is hypothesised that smallpox (and perhaps various forms of Asian flu) brought by the white man devastated native communities.
But perhaps climate change is another part of the story.
In the short run, the decision could be made to give up on agriculture in California. I read that actual domestic use isn't a big part of the whole picture.
Something similar will happen in the US southwest, the Ogala Aquifer states. The Aquifer is rapidly being depleted, and urbanisation is consuming all of the existing water resources.
But making the choice to give up agriculture is hard. Very hard. Politically and socially. I don't see it happening without a fight.
Thailand is going to 100% hydro in wet years, 95% in average years and 70% in dry years. They are planning on keeping their fossil fuel plants in mothballs for dry years.
In the specific case of Africa, the 44 GW of Grand Inga could support the shortfalls on the continent. The Congo watershed is split in half by the equator, so it has a uniquely stable flow. Worst case in 120 years is about 60% of average. Annual minimum is a bit more than half of annual maximum.
They are talking about seasonal production of ammonia with annual excess.
Wind has about half the annual variation of rainfall, and low wind years do not seem tied to low water years. Another part of the marriage of the two.
Reminds me of one more problem with dams. In tropical areas especially, but also anywhere the flooded area supported vegetation, there are large releases of methane.
And one more obvious one: Every post above except for the guy who wants to keep his canyon (yes, it's personal) ascribes zero value to the flooded land. The people displaced. The critters displaced. How does this blindspot perpetuate itself? It's a normative blindspot in these discussions but I just don't get it.
We could also add back in the plusses. People built dams for a variety of reasons, well before there was electric power generation.
But there was a very ancient example of large scale water management in China. Something about an engineer who later became a saint, or something? ... Discovery Chanel.
Maybe this relates:
http://english.people.com.cn/200212/11/eng20021211_108307.shtml
Amusing snippet:
"Judging from these records, the dam's water levels during Qing Dynasty (1644-1911) were lower than in modern times, Li said."
Anyway, flood control, levies, irrigation, are as old as civilization.
Could you provide a link to the Thailand claim, which does not appear to be remotely accurate?
I don't believe Thailand is planning to build, or could build any more large hydro plants. The public goes nuts.
Thailand does import a fair bit of hyrdo electricity from Laos.
Thailand is also planning to build several new coal fired power plants. These have been slowed somewhat because of lower demand.
IMHO, NT II is an environmentally acceptable project (so does the World Bank in their first hydro project in decades) and MUCH better than importing NG from Mynanmar or oil for electricity.