Don't believe any figures from CA utilities, they're worse than the oil companies, well ok, just as bad. CA has at the most about 10% renewables and outside of a fair PV program, has done nothing in the last six or seven years in getting more renewables in the ground.

California is becoming notorious for passing meaningless legislation with great goals that are simply ignored, see most recently their Global Warming Legislation. Next to DC, Sacramento is the most broken government in the republic, at some point we're all going to find out how wonderful it is to have a government completely corrupt and unable to accomplish anything - of, by, and for the corporations - even the libertarians might find this a little distasteful.

California's governmental issues are fairly unique, I think.  For historical reasons, "the people" have inordinate power in California, while politicians have relatively little.  This may sound like a dream come true, but in reality, it's left the PACs/lobbyists in charge of the state.
No, the initiative process is now as bad as the legislature, not the cause. How about the fact that there's 80 state reps for close to forty million people and 40 state senators, that's not representation.

Los Angeles County has 5 supervisors for over 10 million people -- that's local government! At the nation's founding the constitution had 35,000 people for each Congressmen. The fact is the architecture of our government is broken, the old infrastructure of our politics has been destroyed, a completely vial and corrupt process of money, polls, and television rules.

We have a broken political and government system, it desperately needs reform.

Dead.

On.

Correct.

Our entire system of government is broken. We are seeing the results we are seeing because the system has become clogged with vested interests.

Where's the political Drain-O?

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article15041.htm

Hugo Chavez makes some caustic comments about the smell of sulpher that hovers around the White House and proposes to Americans that they read one of their own as a first step in clearing the odour.

Uncle Hugo is more a verbal bludgeon than great orator, and it begins to look like he will rival Fidel in the interminable length of his speeches as he approaches his dotage (yep, he'll be in power, legitimately, for a long while yet unless the US illegally topples him).

But his sense of humour and irony, his subtlety (LOL), even the accuracy of his content, puts the great white chief to shame. I'd pull out this one paragraph as being a poignant and perceptive observation:

"Yesterday, the secretary general practically gave us his speech of farewell. And he recognized that over the last 10 years, things have just gotten more complicated; hunger, poverty, violence, human rights violations have just worsened. That is the tremendous consequence of the collapse of the United Nations system and American hegemonistic pretensions."

Hugo is entertaining in an over the top kind of way, but at least he spouts some ideas and very occasional interesting observation. GW makes me shiver with his simplistic (much more so than Hugo's) mechanistic attempts - apparently mostly successful - at selected voter button pressing.

"Poignant and perceptive" Agreed. Maybe fewer of his words would seem over the top to you if you were head of state of a country the administration doesn't like and literally feared a U.S. invasion. There's certainly precedence for that fear. And then there is the question of his intended audience - not we U.S. citizens I would think.
Problem with Hugo is that he's a left-wing George Bush. His presidency in Venezuela is just a much a sign of the failure of the Venezuelan political system as George Bush's tenure is of ours.
I would have to say that Hugo has done more for the people that were not born with a silver spoon in their mouth in his country than Bush has in his.  

Bush's tax cuts for the rich,  and Hugo's education programs for the poor for example.

Doesn't matter who ultimately benefits. If the Venezuelan political system had worked they wouldn't have had to elect a left-wing populist that has alienated the middle classes, was nearly toppled by a coup, and who was corrupted the Venezuelan political process.  
"If the Venezuelan political system had worked they wouldn't have had to elect a left-wing populist.. "

I guess that answers it.

The only thing they need it would seem is Diebold Voting machines to to ensure No "Left-Wings" would get elected.

BTW,  the "Coup" that nearly toppled them was staged by the CIA,  not Unlike the successful one that changed Iran from a democractically elected president to a dictator in 1953, or the other hundred other examples.

<SNIP>
"In 1953, Iran had a democratic government. This is a very jarring thing for us to realize now because we are not used to seeing the word "Iran" and the word "democracy" in the same sentence. The fact is, however, that Iran was developing a long, rocky but democratic path in the early 1950s. For reasons which my book explains in great detail, the United States decided, in the summer of 1953, to go in and overthrow that democratic government. The result of that coup was that the Shah was placed back on his throne. He ruled for 25 years in an increasingly brutal and repressive fashion. His tyranny resulted in an explosion of revolution in 1979 the event that we call the Islamic revolution. That brought to power a group of fanatically anti-Western clerics who turned Iran into a center for anti-Americanism and, in particular, anti-American terrorism. "

http://www.buzzflash.com/interviews/03/07/29_kinzer.html

"There is nothing new in the world except the history you do not know."
- Harry Truman

A coup, even with outside support, relies on internal proxies to do the bidding of the outside power else they would not be successful. An intelligence agency cannot whip up a coup out of nothing. Clearly, Venezuela is polarized to the point where the two sides view each other as illegitimate contenders for political power. Neitehr trusts each other enough to play the rules of liberal democracy. If that was the case, Chavez wouldn't have corrupted the political system and a coup wouldn't have been attempted because there would have been no internal support for it.

Same thing with Iran.

Chavez, like Bush, is a symptom of dysfunction and polarization.

"There is nothing new in the world except the history you do not know."

(Yawn) Spare me your cliches.

http://blogs.salon.com/0001330/

read about the people in venezuela from their point of view...more poor people are dying and suffering since his rule than before he came into power. chavez cares more about his own agenda than the people of his country and wins hearts of poor people in other countries by throwing oil around when he should be doing more for the poor in his own country. its sad because we need that oil and allow ourselves to be insulted and disgraced because we are so dependent on the resource. chavez needs to recheck himself and there should be more news on how venezuelans are being treated. chavez is a charade and we're allowing ourselves to give into his nonsense.

"...there exists nonetheless sufficient factual evidence to prove that Chavez' regime is by far the most corrupt that Venezuela has ever seen. For instance the irresponsible manner in which the country has been indebted. In 1998 the internal outstanding debt was close to $2.000 billion, in contrast to $16.000 billion at present. Venezuela's banking system holds 64% of the internal debt at times when PDVSA's output capacity has decreased significantly. This translates into larger chunks of the budget having to be destined to service the debt, both internal and external, placing an extraordinary burden in the country's finances. The $2.500 billion deposited in the Inversion and Macro Stabilization Fund (FIEM), were pilfered by Chavez.... "
http://www.hacer.org/current/Vene52.php

At this point, I think that the base rules of the democracy, whether in US, in Canada or elsewhere were good when the number of citizen were low enough.

In my own county we have 1 house elected representative for 45 000 people, but that's not usual, 100 000 is more usual.

Anyway, as the total number of citizen increase, the number of people represented by one representative increase even more.  That's because you cannot increase effectively the number of representative too much.  At one point even more representative does not increase actual democracy.

I can see that even in small local groups.  It is often more efficient to work with a small number of people (3 to 7) than working with larger groups (8 or more).  As the number of people increase, the increment of added value does not increase alike.  

I did not make any actual research on this, it is based on observation of a number of groups (more than 30) I have worked with in the last 8 years.

The increment of added value in a group is somewhat following  the same curve than the oil "creaming curve" that you saw in some Mathew Simmons presentation.

Also in any group of more than 10 people the following apply :

1 leader, no matter what
3 or 4 people involved more than the others
3 somewhat present but with less valuable participation
2 or 3 that we see only once in a while and giving only marginal effort.

I don't want to imply that elected representative are subject to the same distribution, but I don't think that I'm very far from the reality.

I don't think there is anything we can do about the 35,000 to 1 ratio we had long ago in a land far away.  We can hope that things improve, but even a bit of an improvement like 500,000 to 1 would be great, oh wait don't we nationally have something like that?  Ok say 300,000 to 1, that gives us about 1,000 reps and 100 senators.  GEE I really don't see any improvement there either.

We have passed the point where a Revolution could do any good.  We have gotten a National Government that will not allow a Revolution in the first place.

I have Fixed it so that people may comment on my short story about "A future as I saw it" What is still scary is I think it will be sooner rather than later.

dan-ur.blogspot.com

Have fun, just remember we have the technology to do it today.

Diminishing marginal returns in politics?
New Zealand currently has one MP per about 35,000 population.  Probably one of the reasons (along with paper ballot voting) that democracy hasn't entirely died here.
California sues carmakers over global warming
'Time to hold these companies responsible,' attorney general says
MSNBC staff and news service reports
URL: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14924286/
Updated: 12:13 a.m. MT Sept 20, 2006

SAN FRANCISCO - California filed suit against the world's largest carmakers on Wednesday, charging that greenhouse gases from their vehicles have cost the state millions of dollars.

State Attorney General Bill Lockyer said the lawsuit filed in U.S. District Court in Northern California was the first of its kind to seek to hold manufacturers liable for the damages caused by their vehicles' emissions.

Lockyer, a Democrat, said the complaint states that under federal and state common law the automakers have created a "public nuisance" by producing "millions of vehicles that collectively emit massive quantities of carbon dioxide."

Carbon dioxide emissions and other greenhouse gases have been linked to global warming.

Lockyer's office said that "under the law, a `public nuisance' is an unreasonable interference with a public right, or an action that interferes with or causes harm to life, health or property."

"Global warming is causing significant harm to California's environment, economy, agriculture and public health. The impacts are already costing millions of dollars and the price tag is increasing," Lockyer said in a statement. "Vehicle emissions are the single most rapidly growing source of the carbon emissions contributing to global warming, yet the federal government and automakers have refused to act. It is time to hold these companies responsible for their contribution to this crisis."

Lockyer said he would seek "tens or hundreds of millions of dollars" from the automakers.

The lawsuit names Ford, General Motors, Toyota and the North American units of DaimlerChrysler, Honda and Nissan.

Activists welcomed the move.

"Industries responsible for the pollution that drives global warming should expect more suits like this until we have effective national legislation to stop global warming," David Doniger, a staffer with the Natural Resources Defense Council, said in a statement.

Carmakers earlier sued to block a 2005 California law that would require them to reduce greenhouse gas emissions on new vehicles.

California and 11 other states are also involved in a lawsuit challenging the Bush administration's refusal to regulate greenhouse gas emissions. The Supreme Court is expected to hear that case during its upcoming term.

Reuters and sylvester80 contributed to this report.
URL: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14924286/

Activists welcomed the move.

Let me rephrase that and add a bit:

Activists, MOST OF WHOM DRIVE, welcomed the move. "Why should I, the user, be held accountable when I can point fingers at the dealer?", one activist asked.

We are never going to get anywhere until people are willing to accept a higher degree of personal responsibility for the situation we are in.

AMEN
Hello R-squared,

Good point.  Until everyone understands and then cooperates to mitigate the Tragedy of the Commons finger-pointing gets us nowhere.  Optimizing the squeeze through the Dieoff Bottleneck by detritus powerdown and biosolar powerup, along with universal cooperation on voluntary birth controls is the best strategy to reduce the coming postPeak violence.  Will we have the wisdom to proactively restructure our society to localized permaculture with 60-75% of us laboring in the fields?

Otherwise:  Requiem
---------------------------------------------
It really will be back to the good old days!  Shouts of "BRING ME HIS HEAD" will ring through the land, slaves, scalps, souvenirs and trophies of all sorts, ... exciting possibilities limited only by our ingenuity.

The good news is that recycling will finally become fashionable!  We will see feral children mining the dumps for plastic to burn (Pampers) so they can heat the hovels they are forced to live in.  The strongest kids will set traps for fresh meat -- rats -- while the weaker kids will eat anything they can cram into their mouths (old shoes, styrofoam peanuts, newspaper soup).  Pandemics will sweep the world, punctuated every so often by explosions as abandoned nuke plants go critical.  Leaking dumps and tanks will spew PCBs and radioactive hazwaste into the feral food chain spawning surprising new shapes for young mothers to enjoy nursing. [54] Toxic chemical fires, blowing garbage and trash, genetic mutations, filthy water, cannibalism ...

As the Easter Islanders say: "The flesh of your mother sticks between my teeth".[55]

The situation will be especially serious for a short time because the population will keep rising due to the lags inherent in the age structure and social adjustment. Then mercifully, the population will drop sharply as the death rate is driven upward by lack of food and health services.[56]  Trapped in obsolete belief systems, Americans won't even know why their society disintegrated.

A hundred thousand years from now -- once the background radiation levels drop below lethality -- a new Homo mutilus will crawl out of the caves to elect a leader. Although we have no idea what mutilus might look like, evolutionary theory can still tell us who will win the election.  He will be the best liar running on a platform to end hunger by controlling nature.

How could it be otherwise?
------------------------------
Recall my postings on the false detritus-fueled humanimal ecosystem that overlies our actual ecosystem.  Until we are willing to cooperate in mitigation of both sides of Jay's Thermo-Gene Collision--we will be going in the opposite direction of optimizing the coming squeeze.  Such is life.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az  Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

Bob email me todatrelaxjane.com I live in Scottsdale and want to talk about some of the stuff happening here in regards to the ACC and Governors task force
Cheers
Good News.
I welcome this suit.

Robert Rapier:
As to your comments about activitists, so what?  Their position is utterly irrelevent to the State's case.  It is relevent apparently as a chance for Robert Rapier to again place himself in some kind of ethical castle far above the "activists".  

Unfortunately the climate problem is global and urgent. We need to accomplish all sorts of steps at the same time. It is simply not workable that we shall do nothing until all people, as judged by Robert Rapier, have accepted personal responsibility.

Robert, it becomes apparent that for all your thoughtful posts, when it comes to action you stand for absolutely nothing. I say this because the only actions you find acceptable require absolute ethical purity: Let he who doesn't use oil products cast the first stone. Sorry but the efforts to protect the environment are mostly not about your personal need to judge others and protect your imaginary ethical castle.
Roy

The problem I have with this suit is that state and federal governments are accomplices to the sins they are accusing the auto industry of.  Who built the roads that the cars are driving on?  This country has an infrastructure that is incredibly innefficient in terms of energy use.  While going carless is possible in some places, its hard enough that most people just won't do it.  If our governments at all levels were a little more stingy with road construction, maybe we wouldn't have so much car-dependant urban sprawl, and more efficient public transportation would be utilized more.
It is relevent apparently as a chance for Robert Rapier to again place himself in some kind of ethical castle far above the "activists".  

It is not the ethics. It is the hypocrisy. We always wish to point fingers at someone else. We want to pass an initiative like Prop 87, because it punished oil companies and removes personal responsibility. We now want to punish auto companies for enabling our habits. It is ludicrous. What I stand for is personal responsibility. That is one reason favor a gas tax. He who uses the most fossil fuels will pay the largest penalty. Individual accountability.

Robert, it becomes apparent that for all your thoughtful posts, when it comes to action you stand for absolutely nothing.

Incidentally, I will also point out that you are far off the mark. If I don't stand for what you stand for, it doesn't mean I stand for absolutely nothing. I stand for many things, among them higher gas taxes, conservation, solar energy, biomass gasification, additional research for cellulosic ethanol and biodiesel, etc.

But I believe hypocrisy should be pointed out when it occurs, and that is the issue here. We do ourselves no favors by pointing fingers at others for our oil addiction. The problem is mine and yours, not the car company's problem. If I conserved and bought fuel-efficient transportation, the oil and automotive companies would have to adapt or die.

Do you think we should chuck CAFE then?  And just go with individual action?

... maybe get rid of those pesky catalytic covnerters as well ...

Do you think we should chuck CAFE then?  And just go with individual action?

No. Gas taxes, for instance, are not "individual action." But we could get higher gas taxes passed if individuals stopped looking to scapegoat others for this situation. Blame the oil companies, and raise their taxes. Blame the automakers, and sue them. But a gas tax? Political suicide, because the individual doesn't accept that he is the problem.

If we understood and accepted that the problem is on the demand side, we would have a real chance of implementing meaningful change. CAFE standards? A decent start, but meaningless if peak comes sooner rather than later. By the time the average mileage of all cars on the road is significantly impacted, it may be too late.

I think I must be cynical enough to let dysfunctional things pass, in a dysfunctional system, if they move in the right direction.

You insist that this is scapegoating, etc.  Maybe.  And maybe GM's bankrolling of hydrogen could be labled distraction.  And Exxon's bankrolling of climate critics could be labeled as decept.

I think you are falling into the trap of demanding the perfect here.  Are you really going to convince every actor in the economy to rational and moral action?

... maybe you ask for that, and maybe you ask for it "symmetrically" with moral vendors and consumers ... but will that "meaningful" if peak oil comes sooner rather than later?  By the time the average consumer and company is convinced, it may be too late.

I think you are falling into the trap of demanding the perfect here.  Are you really going to convince every actor in the economy to rational and moral action?

No, I don't demand it. Maybe the lawsuit does a bit of good. Maybe Prop 87 does indirectly reduce consumption. I am honestly not sure how I would vote on it, and if I demanded perfection it would be a no-brainer to vote against it.

What is frustrating for me is that we don't accept more responsibility for our personal contribution to Peak Oil and Global Warming, and therefore we have to settle for very tiny incremental changes. I don't know that we have time for that.

If everyone accepted personal responsibility, and were willing to take serious steps toward mitigation, we could postpone Peak Oil talk for a long, long time by slappping on a $4/gal gasoline tax. But such things are only possible if we stop pointing fingers at everyone else and accept personal responsibility.

I think you misinterpret that this means I advocate primarily individual actions. No. I favor mass action, but meaningful mass action is going to be tough to implement with today's climate of "not my fault."

I just my gasoline and electricity bills in half, and my gas use by a third.  Do I know that the advocates of these lawsuits have not done the same?

FWIW, there were some who made the cycnical suggestion that I should not have bought my Prius at all.  I just have kept driving my Subaru, and kicked half the purchase-price to movements like this that enforce broader action.

In a pragmatic sense, it might be a dollar better spent.

(BTW, my reaction to the old Forbes quote, as I think about it, is that GM deserves whatever it gets.)

That reminds me ... I kept this old quote from Forbes:

With so many decks steeply stacked against GM, why does it even bother with hydrogen? Hydrogen has the virtue of removing the auto industry from the environmental debate, even if it creates the same or more pollution upstream. As Burns likes to point out: "If we want to have our market capitalization approach that of other industries, we can't have the car held hostage to the debates about energy dependence, resource usage, global climate change."

Get that?  They couldn't "have the car held hostage to the debates about energy dependence, resource usage, global climate change."

Robert Rapier is doing as much as any one individual in helping us deal effectively with Peak Oil.  #1 is he is deflating myths about ethanol.  

We will NOT deal effectively with Peak Oil and post-Peak Oil if public policy is based on falsehoods and misleading myths.      We cannot make effective steps to mitigate Peak Oil if we place our highest priority on dead ends.

Thanks Alan. Sometimes I have days where I feel like I am doing some good, and sometimes I feel under siege.
Doing good and being under seige are in no way contradictory conditions. To the contrary, I think in order to really do good, you are going to have to put yourself in a situation where you are beseiged.

Keep up the work of doing good and build thicks walls. I think it is imperative that we have open, sometimes tough, discussions in order to get at the truth. I hope people don't take questions or counter arguments as attacks on them personally.

I much prefer discussing issues with people who disagree with me than having a cheering choir following me about fawning. I suspect you do too.

That's like a triple mixed metaphor or something. Crowds cheer, choirs sing, and I'm not sure what fawns.

But other than that, I agree :)

Robert keep up the good work. You are expending the energy a lot of us don't have. Don't think we don't appreciate it. We'd even help, if you asked.

fawn1 (fôn)
intr.v., fawned, fawn·ing, fawns.

To exhibit affection or attempt to please, as a dog does by wagging its tail,

http://www.answers.com/topic/fawn

Oh, see, you had to look it up, to :)

I was thinking of a deer for some reason. I would have never guessed dog. I learn a new thing every day. Thanks, buddy.

(Why the hell was I thinking about deer?)

fawn2 (fôn)
n.
A young deer, especially one less than a year old.
A grayish yellow-brown to moderate reddish brown.
Alright, ya got me. But that was an ambush.
Jodi's Fawn.
Alright, have I known you long enough to get to to call,"I have no idea, explain that one to me?"
Don't worry, even Google couldn't do anything wity Jodi's Fawn.

http://www.google.co.th/search?hl=th&q=%22Jodi%27s+Fawn%22&meta=

But then again we always knew Stepback was smarter than us. I'm willing to bet it is some distant galaxy, a paradox in quantum physics, or remote science fiction reference.

What's your guess?


Sorry. I mis-rememberized.
The name of the movie was The Yearling.
The boy who cared for the fawn was named Jody.
Damn! That's totally obscure. That boy looks like...well, a boy. That's not working for me. Nor is the deer, I mean fawn.

Can we give Scarlett Johansson a haircut and recast her as the "boy." We'll name her Jody. We'll get a crocodile named "Irwin" to play the fawn. Whaddaya say?

When a rattler bites pa, pa kills a doe to use its organs to draw out the poison. Jody begs to keep the doe's fawn as a pet.

Oh, yeah. This is going on my DVD list. Step Back scores again.

How did I ever miss that one? Count on Stepback for these overlooked treasures.
I hope people don't take questions or counter arguments as attacks on them personally.

I certainly don't. But things like Roy wrote:

"you stand for absolutely nothing" are well beyond a counter argument. You should also see some of the hate mail I get from time to time. But, probably only about 10% of my e-mail is hate mail.

You know, every now and then someone pops up on an environmental site, or a peak oil site, to say that individual action does not matter.

To those of us who undertake individual action, that always causes some concern.  Jevons. Tragedy of the commons.  Etc.

So I looked back at past actions, and do you know what I found?

I think I found that individual action really served as a foundation and stimulus, and that when things worked the second stage was broad acceptance, and yes, regulation.

Dolphin free tuna is a classic case.  It started as a boycott and ended up as a law.

So where does this tie into your italicized text?

I think we are looking at a transition, one in which we monkeys establish new social norms, and enforce those norms upon others.  This is the point where we try to eliminate the free riders, in the economic jargon.

So no, it is not "Why should I, the user, be held accountable when I can point fingers at the dealer?"  It is "How can I leverage my behavior out to the society as a whole?"

If GM is a bad monkey, this is the way we scream and throw some .. er, leaves their way.

How many CO2 producing vehicles did the state of CA purchase in the past year and will the State of CA be suing themselves for purchasing them?
I think the state is roughly divided into, with PG&E in the north and SCE in the south?

Here in the south, with 11% geothermal alone, I'd think we beat that 10% claim pretty handily.

Also amusing that by the SCE (or whoever's) rules, "large hydro" (itself 9%) is not counted as an "eligible" renewable.

First it was a state goal. Second I wouldn't believe a figure put forth by Edison on any account. All numbers on CA energy are at best suspect, especially the California Energy Commission's which has the state's figure as 10.73%, which is actually down from the late 90s' when it was just over 11.

It was below ten a couple years ago because CA, just like the rest of the country, built almost exclusively new natural gas generation. Anyway, I'm suspect how they managed to bring it up above 10, outside a few megawatts of pv, there's hasnt been much new renewables in CA.

Do you personally consider hydro to be a renewable resource?
Not the big dams, there incredibly destructive. CA doesn't count large hydro renewable. There's good micro-hydro. Micro-generation -- wind, sun, hydro -- has great potential, of course the utilities don't want it, so they don't correctly value it. American utility system is pretty depressing.
I think big dams can be very destructive, but that does not make them non-renewable.  Once built, they catch rain and snowmelt every year, and that does not (pending climate change) deplete.  Maybe you need some silt management as well.

What you are really looking at is a non-depletion argument.

You are looking at secondary environmental damage, which should be examined carefully.  If hydro really hurts us more than coal, rip 'em out and build coal plants in their place, right?

I think we'd really be oh so lucky if we could worry about our dams in a coal-free world.

So I'm not on board.  I can't drink all the kool-aid.  I can't disbelieve SCE numbers on your say-so.  I can't classify dams as "non-renewable" just because they have secondary impacts.

Well that's good, you can believe whatever you want, what it has to do with reality is another question.

The question is how you define renewable. The big dams, well for one thing they are habitat destroyer, for one easy example, they've decimated the salmon population along the Pacific Coast. We still have to eat before taking a hot shower don't we?

The choice isn't between coal and large hydro. America's hyper-consumptive energy waste economy is despicable. We need to first look at the energy content of everything we do and figure out how to use the least amount energy and then second how we can provide the generation to do that. We'd soon find we don't need much coal and no big hydro. Doing the reverse, trying to figure out how to replace current generation to continue our immoral waste is a fool's game and already lost.

I wish Americans would abandon their hyper-consumptive energy waste economy as well.

I really do.

But short of that, I think I have to play in the real world.  If I want to tear down Hoover Dam, I have to name what will replace it.

To me it's not politics to demand impossible changes.  It's dreaming.

Well this is where eventually reality catches up to beliefs. We can believe all we want in infinite in oil supplies or that we can continue to destroy foundational eco-systems, time will tell and if the believers are right we have nothing to worry about, if not, well nature is brutal in it's accountability isn't it?
I expect the rank and file of consumers to make incremental improvements in efficiency and conservation as their prices rise.  So higher nat gas prices, or onerous rates from out-of-state coal, will contribute to that.

I don't expect us to build any more big hydro in California, just because the good places are taken.  The remaining possible is in Yosemite and even those conspicuous consumers agree building there would be a crime.

It is also very unlikely that we'll get much in-state coal added.  Right now they have to build over the boarder or on Indian Reservations.

We could work out where we stand the opposite way, for the purposes of peak oil/gas.  That is, calc the oil gas percentage of our electricity generation.  It's less than half, which is good from a preparedness standpoint.

The question, as pragmatic citizens, is where to put our efforts.  I'll back conservation as a first priority, and wind/solar second ... but don't expect those to do more than slow fossil fuel expansion.

Well you're taking the politics out of this. Consumer's have no organized power in our present system. You define reality by how large corporate actors, who control the government define reality. We have an entrenched technological infrastructure protected by established interests and great inertia. Historically, that's a recipe for disaster. The only hope is a mass transformative movement, there's historical precedent for that too, but incremental transactional change is not going to get us anywhere.
??? aren't consumers the reason we won't have Yosemite hydro?
John Muir, I think he'd be pretty insulted by the consumer label.
That begs the question.
Muir considered himself a citizen, not a consumer, big difference.
No, I meant it begged the question of who was fighting dams today.  Sure Muir's legacy lives on.  I enjoy his books and his parks myself.
Again citizens, not consumers, big difference.
I have lamented the common use of the "consumer" label for "citizens" in these very pages myself.

But in this case, I think it is valid to point out that electricity consumers are making the choices they are.

Insulted or not, if he purchased something, he is a consumer.  He might also be a citizen, but there is nothing saying you can't be both.
We're talking about how he preserved Yosemite.
No, we are talking about electricity choices umpty-ump years later.
All of the San Francisco municipal buildings, schools, traffic lights plus Muni's streetcars, cable cars and electric trolley buses are run off of Hetch Hetchy in Yosemite Park, with the surplus sold to an irrigation district.

SF would like to expand the existing power plant but the Park Service won't let them.  So renewable energy goes to waste and we burn NG and coal instead.

I would like to comment more, but limited time ATM.

Innergex II wins a power purchase agreement for a 49.9-MW hydroelectric project
Friday July 28, 3:54 pm ET

LONGUEUIL, QC, July 28 CNW Telbec - Innergex II Income Fund ("Innergex II"), a private open-ended trust, is a successful proponent of BC Hydro's 2006 Call for Tenders for the 49.9-MW Kwoeik Creek hydroelectric project.

Kwoeik Creek hydroelectric project is a run-of-the river facility located on Kwoeik Creek, near Lytton, within the traditional territory of the Kanaka Bar Indian Band in British Columbia. Innergex II is in partnership with Kanaka Bar Indian Band to achieve this project representing an investment of more than $100 million. The project comprises two turbines of a total installed capacity of 49.9 MW and will produce 147,450 MW-hr of firm energy annually, beginning in November 2010. The construction is expected to begin in December 2007, after obtaining all permits and approvals.

Now why 49.9 MW  for this new, run-of-the-river hydropower project ?

Because 49.9 MW is "good" small hydro and 50 MW is "bad" large hydro.  Absent such idiocies, the project would have been built as a 65 or 70 MW project.  PC destroys renewable energy.

This is more an example of bureaucracy than PC. Bureaucracy whether public or private is a much a bigger problem than PC. Bureaucracy is the fount of inertia and as far as energy, we'll never change anything without an equal and then greater response to the present inertia.
The question, as pragmatic citizens, is where to put our efforts.

I agree with you in that Conservation, wind and solar seem to be the most agreeable solutions.

I'm also like you in that I don't think Hydro is a horrible option.  It has problems, but the question is, are those problems better or worse than the alternatives.  If forced to choose between coal versus hydro, which one is the better option.  Coal I think is by far WAY more destructive both in feeding and polluting stages compared to hydro.  People are going to demand a certain level of energy even if we do conserve.  So to provide that energy we need as benevolent a method as possible to generate the needed amount.

That being said, we still don't know what the full impact of large scale windfarms and solar farms might have on our environment either.  They appear to be more benevolent to the environment, but then we have not implemented them on the same scale that we have with other technologies.  What if it turns out that large scale Windfarms alter the weather patterns of a given region by interfering with the flow of low and high pressure fronts.

What if it turns out that massive solar farms cause unintended heating or cooling of the air, or ground which in turn impact the climate in the systems that surround that farm.

The law of unintended consequences has not been anywhere near fully tested in regards to these emerging alternative energy industries.

An article printed several years back in the Houston Chronicle(If I remember right) pointed to a study meteorologists were doing in tracking storms and how they interact with large manmade construction (primarily highways).  It found that there was an impact on the heat released from highways, and the movement of small storm systems trying to cross them.  On I45(4 to 8 lanes depending on which stretch you are talking about and if you include the notorious Houston feeder roads which flank the highway) it was found that small storm systems would actually change course in small degrees acting as if there was a wall being placed right over the highway.  Temp. Readings found exactly that... compared to the ground surrounding the highway, the highway was several degrees warmer and that heat was escaping upward to form a warm wall barrier.

Whose to say these "renewables" don't also have some detrimental effect or at the very least an impact on our environment.  Chances are that they do have some effect, and that the effect will be magnified as they become more prevalent.  The question then becomes one of is this solution better or worse than the alternative.  We can't mitigate all risks, we can just minimize them, and if environmentalists and peak energy critics don't come to grips with this fact, then its likely the worse options such as coal and natural gas are likely to be adopted to solve our energy needs.

I agree with your sentiment

but

I think the vast majority of evidence is the effects of wind and PV will be localised.

Wind the big risk is bird and bat strikes.  In particular certain species of migratory bats seem attracted to wind turbines-- we don't know why.

Except in the very high risk migration corridors, I think we have to bite the bullet and take the risk.  A lot of bird species are doomed in any case if global warming continues.

As to PV and wind changing the weather: well, maybe locally.  But since they are exploiting energy that is already there, I don't see it making a huge difference.  not even as much as the 'heat sinks' that our urban structures cause.

I think we have to bite the bullet and take the risk.  A lot of bird species are doomed in any case if global warming continues.

Exactly.  When viewed from a risk management perspective, Solar, Wind, and even Hydro is less threatening to our futures than fossile fuels.

What bugs me about some environmentalists is that they seem too apt to shoot down any alternative if it isn't somehow "perfect".  Problem for them and the rest of us humans is we don't have time or knowledge for "perfect" solutions.  So we need to buck up and try to take the least imperfect solutions we have available.

If the whole peak oil issue we're gathering around, the entire energy and ecosystem crisis, points out one thing, it is that politics as we experience and execute it in our daily lives, in our neck of the globe, is not based on reality.

It is our politics that is based on dreaming, on hallucinations of neverending and increasing growth in wealth and BTU availability, where every snag we hit can and will be overcome by innovations that grow seemingly effortlessly from our superior science and technological abilities.

What we conveniently overlook is that neither our science nor our politics is able to comprehend, and act according to, the most basic physical laws we know: thermodynamics.

That is the tragedy of mankind: possessing the brains to formulate what amounts to a pretty brilliant understanding of our surroundings, but not the ability to apply that same understanding.

And so is man smarter than yeast? Yes, definitely, but it makes zero difference in the end, because it is not our intelligence that drives us. If it were, we would not be in this mess.

We understand the real world, but we are unable to live in it.

I think on some levels we do ok living in reality. But I think we're at a point in history, where our industrial myths our breaking down. It's a certain decadence to simply say that because our myths no longer work the future is fucked, and make no mistake on this criteria America 2006 is a decadent place. It's not up to us to decide if we failed, it's up to us to work as hard as possible incorporating new or old understandings and then history will be our judge, that's all the future asks.
There is no doubt that we have a high level of dysfunction in California and the national government.  But that dysfunction does not uniformly favor one group.

Coal advocates do not get everything they wish for, as an example.

FWIW, I think I've seen an acceleration of response in the last couple years to energy problems.  That would make straight-line extrapolations questionable.  We need to know if the acceleration will continue, or fall back.

What if those solar stirling engines they are putting out in the desert really work?

I don't think it is a question of living in reality or living in fantasy. I think it is a question of living in the past, or living in the present.

When my grandmother was a child, the radio was cutting edge technology. She saw the invention of the home refridgerator. Antibiotics. Vaccines. TV. Jet planes. Landing on the moon.

The unthinkable was done over and over again.

I feel it is important to draw the distinction between fantasy and past history because it allows easier communication. You can say "I know your intution and experience say there will always be growth, let me show you the energy curve that has happened your whole life" and then show them the energy curve coming.

We know that the years of past experience just yield a mirage of the future, but those years are more real for most people than some dry graphs and equations.

BTW, I do support conservation efforts every chance I get, and have thrown a link to this presentation more than once:

http://odograph.com/?p=64

So better coal than hydro is your choice.

Mine would be expanding current hydro as much as feasible; extracting 5% to 10% more power from existing power plants and building more pumped storage, dams (fewer) and run-of-river schemes (more potential).  In some special places, replace dams with run-of-river plus pumped storage elsewhere. plus wind, solar, geothermal & biomass with the minimum nuke needed (~22%) AND ZERO COAL !

Roughly (by energy and 80% of current North American generation)

52% wind
12% hydro
-19% Pumped Storage
+15% Pumped Storage
22% Nuke
18% geothermal, solar thermal, PV, biomass
0% coal
Some combined cycle NG kept for extreme cases of heat, cold & drought (perhaps 1/4 the CO2/MWh of coal)

North American HV DC grid to shift power around.

Drink the Koo-aid!!!
I have a question, I've heard this repeatedly and never have gotten a good explanation of why.  Why are hydro dams considered only partially renewable?  I certainly understand their limits to scale, and regional variability. But so long as you receive adequate rain/snow water to replace what has been used, they seem to be able run pretty much indefinitely (within reason of course) I personally haven't heard a good argument against hydro, besides that they are capital intensive, and cause problems for some fish, that couldn't be overcome with a bit of ingenuity. But for some reason they always seem to be the "black sheep" of the renewable alternatives.
It depends on how you define renewable. In CA, big hydro isn't considered renewable because of the eco-system devistation it causes.
Ok then, i see the disconnect. I always saw something as renewable so long as it was able to replenish it self year after year, with out too much investment on our part.  I.E. wind blowing, sun shining, or rain falling.  Hydro seems to fit that quite well.  Again with limits like the rest.  As for the environmental damage, i would agree that not every river is ideal for a "hover dam", but one must concede, the damage that a dam causes is very local.  IMO hydro is a very important part of the energy picture, and should remain so.  
one must concede, the damage that a dam causes is very local.

No this isn't true, all "local" ecosystems combine to form the planet. Again an easy example, the dams on the West coast have decimated the Pacific salmon populations, which then harms everything tied to it. We don't deal with complexity well and the enviroment is a complex system, which we still little understand.

 Ok, so decimated salmon population bodes bad for local, and by proxy, global eco system.  That is fine, and I don't try to argue that. But how is this for a possible solultion.  Design the hydro plants to accommodate local fish population.  (don't ask me for specifics, i'm not a hydro engineer, but it cant be to terribly complicated) and or, select only certain river systems for damming and relocate existing migratory routes to accommodate larger or complicated dams.  From my understanding, nature does a pretty good job of that anyway.  There you go, we have hydro, and fish have spawning grounds.  Now I'm sure there are dozens of potential solutions for this problem, some more complicated than others, but the point is they can work.  Simply design it into the system.  But in the end, hydro is still renewable.  Even if the fish move on, rain will still fall.  And I'll take a few locally unconvinced fish and over more coal, more oil, more nat gas, any day of the week.
Incidentally, I believe one solution for the Columbia River dam system is to have salmon trucked around the dams. This is a case where the solution to a dam-induced problem is via the use of fossil fuels.

-best

I appreciate the irony, but somehow i doubt that the emissions from trucking the fish compare to a similar scale coal plant.  Maybe though.   Just incase i'm boycotting salmon until those fish figure out a more environmentally friendly way of spawning ;-)
JetJockey, it's not just the fish migrating. The dams block the river from flowing downstream. This means water and nutrients don't get past the dam. The river downstream quickly becomes a stagnant pond. Fish die. Wildlife who depend on the river are forced to migrate and/or die. Vegetation -whether forest, meadow, or plain -starts to suffer. People who live downstream lose their source of drinking water, and farms their source of irrigation water. Entire towns dry up and blow away in the extreme cases. In the worst case scenario, the area below the dam can become a desert. Then you have the problems with that river not running into the next river, and so on and so forth until you hit the sea. So all those rivers run lower from that point on, and that affects their ecosystems, people, wildlife, etc. It affects things all the way down to the sea and beyond, because that water and nutrients no longer get there. Marshes, floodplains, and coastal habitats are no longer refreshed.
Sound trivial? Consider this: one of the main reasons New Orleans is sinking, aside from the rising sea level, is that silt no longer reaches the coast from the Mississippi river thanks to all the dams and canals.
so, perhaps we should be smarter where we build our cities and our dams. but, hydro is still renewable, we just have to be smart about it.  places where the worst case scenario is likely, we should probably think twice about building massive dam, but there are plenty of locations where hydro can and does help reduce or use of other types of power plants.   Maybe one day we wont need hydro.  but for now the only alternative is another fossil power plant.  so again, my vote is for hydro.  At least for now.  
Consider this: one of the main reasons New Orleans is sinking, aside from the rising sea level, is that silt no longer reaches the coast from the Mississippi river thanks to all the dams and canals.

Umm while I don't dismiss your earlier argument about the interconnectivity of river eco systems, you just undid yourself with the New Orleans example.

There is plenty of mud and crap coming out of the Missippi, so much in fact that I can go down to the beach here in Galveston Texas and see it.  On satellite pictures you can see a MONSTER plume of mud and silt spewing into the Gulf of Mexico.

New Orleans is sinking because they built a levy system, and series of dams around the city to protect the city from Mississippi flood waters and GoM tidal/hurricane flooding.  New Orleans is blocking the silt locally only.  But that shouldn't be confused with the whole of the Mississippi being dammed up and not producing silt down river because that is out and out false.

For a real pretty picture of the Plumes check out
http://epod.usra.edu/archive/epodviewer.php3?oid=54592

Huh? "Dams block the river from flowing downstream"? I live a couple of miles from a major dam (Shasta Dam in California), and the Sacramento River is still running. They have to let the water that goes through the turbines go somewhere, right? And in fall they have to dump water just to make room for the next winter's rain and snowfall.
I think ecosystem impacts are important, but large hydro fails the renewable standard on the basis of cost vs. life of use.  Dams do not function indefinitely; while rates of siltation vary, some dams will silt completely in under a century.  There are estimates of less than three decades of productive use for some dams in the Philippines, and Three Gorges will begin experiencing problems in 50 to 80 years at present levels of deforestation in the drainage basin.
Dams do not function indefinitely

If that is the definition, then none of the supposed "renewables" are renewable.  All will require maintenance to keep into operation.

Are Solar Panels considered renewable?  I would argue that as dust and sand collects on them, that their eventual usefulness will be degraded.  As such, I expect there will be workers whose jobs is to keep Solar Panels clean.

Perhaps the problem with Hydro power isn't whether or not its renewable (I think it obviously is), but rather how do we build them in such a manner as to be more maintenance and ecosystem friendly.  If we could flush the silt down river instead of letting it build up, would that then solve the problem?

Essentially it is the cost vs. life of use.  

Yes, all renewables eventually fail, but large dams represent a massive investment of manpower, equipment and concrete.  For those investments to be considered renewable, the structure must, in my opinion, perform for an extended period.  Consider the embodied energy vs. power production over the life of the structure.  Consider the difficulty in recycling the structure.  There are solar panels from the early sixties which still perform quite well; approximately 70-80% of rated power with only very gradual declines in power production.  No one really knows how long modern solar panels will last, but a century seems possible, maybe longer.

Certain sites are more siltation-friendly, and yes, dams can be designed to flush silt to some degree.  Typically, flushing sediments obviates other dam functions like: flood control, reservoir, and steady power production because it is done during maximum flow periods.  Indeed, flushing works mostly at the dam end; sedimentation occurring in the distal portions of the reservoir is extremely difficult to address.  

Given that many desert dams are distant from end users, the transmission losses also effect the "renewable-ness" of dams.  4000 watts of rooftop solar may be worth twice the dam-generated electricity due to distributed generation factors.

That said, I am not against hydroelectric power; but I do understand why its renewable credentials are doubted in some quarters.

I see no reason why you cannot dredge a reservoir behind a dam wall. It could be an unmanned remote submersible 'hoover'. Silt could be strained on the bank to make topsoil. It's not rocket science.
I think you need to consider issues of scale; how many cubic meters of sediment arrive each year?  Millions? Billions?  Think of the amount of work done by all that water falling over the entire drainage basin; all of the physical and chemical erosion.  

Dredging costs, either by clamshell or suction, are significant and the energy spent dredging most be "charged" against the dams production.

I think you've described it in a nutshell.  Those other problems reduce their "branding" as renewable.

FWIW, I think the scale and types of damage that large dams do are incredebly dependent upon the environmental setting, and the type of pre-fill preparation that is done.

For instance, if you are drowning a forest, you want to harvest every stick of that biomass and use it effectively, rather than just soak it and let it bubble away as co2 and ch4.

See my post below. :o)
(not the desert dams have lower drowned vegitation problems)
All hydro systems eventually silt up. Some take as long as a hundred years but some silt up in a couple of decades. It depends on how much silt is in the water. Swift water carries the silt to slow standing water and there it settles to the bottom. That is what you have above tall hydro dams. And that is why they are only partially renewable.
And how many windmills would need replacing after 100 years?  
That is a better explanation.  And on technical grounds i can understand why one would consider that. And I'm sorry to continue to beat a dead horse, but wouldn't that be a maintenance issue.  Maybe i'm incorrect, but wouldn't that be like saying wind isn't renewable because turbines break, or solar isn't renewable because solar cells fail.  The source of the energy is what defines what is renewable.  All systems we create will fail eventually.  Now, I wonder how much energy is required to "unsilt" the reservior.  Or if there are any designs that could prevent silt or at least slow it down.  Oh well, i guess that would be for the hydro drum.
Your time frames are too short.  Some dams will not silt up for centuries.  I don't know of any facing a two decade lifespan, though I suppose there might be some small dams somewhere that fit that frame.  I believe water temperature and the geology of the watershed are the major determining factors for the rate that silting occurs.

In an earlier post, someone said (Alanfrombigeasy?) that a silted-up dam, rendered into a waterfall, could still provide power using run of the river technology.  I would be interested if anyone has any comparative data on this.  Certainly Niagara Falls generates a lot of electricity, and substituting rock for sand, it has the appearance of a silted dam.

Is silting ultimately a problem for electricity generation?  I would think so since a reservoir allows for optimal control over the rate of flow through turbines and can therefore respond to fluctuating demand, as well as provide a 'reservoir' for fluctuating wind energy, as Sharman's paper on Danish windpower/neighbouring country hydropower demonstrates.  Still, it seems logical that, since the work is provided by falling water, electricity can still be generated as long as the concrete/dam material endures.

Nonetheless, there are many reasons to question the ultimate value to society of electricity from at least some dams.  For thousands of years, the Egyptians successfully used irrigation to support rich agricultural production alongside the Nile.  Annual flooding replenished nutrients and flushed salts into the sea.  The Aswan Dam changed this equasion and now salinity is emerging as a problem, as well as dependence on synthetic fertilizers.  Is the electricity worth the price?

There's a topic for someone's dissertation.

What if we went back to paddle wheels connected to rivers?  I mean if you had twenty businesses next to a river, one wouldnt affect the other would it?  The water turns the wheel and keeps going.  It turns the next wheel and isn't affected by the last wheel, or is it?  Anyone know what the aggregate affect of tons of paddle wheels on a river would be?

It seems to avoid the downstream user problems of dams, yet provide localized power in the business/home that needs it.

A paddle wheel would slow the river, but the amount would be negligible.  Even 20 paddle wheels would probably be negligible.  The thing is, people are going to want to squeeze every bit of energy out of the project that they can, and one paddle wheel is a nice energy source, but it is still pretty modest, so they can either pack the river with paddle wheels to the point that the current speed was altered, or you could just build a dam and force all the water through a turbine, which also affects the flow, but maximizes energy capture.  

Your idea would have a minimal environmental impact because it would only take a small portion of the energy carried by the river.  This is why alot of us here favor scaling down energy consumption first, and then scaling up renewables.

Thanks for the clarification.  So the reason we dont use wheels anymore is b/c dams capture energy more efficiently?  I wonder about this from an Econ PV, since there are many externalized costs not figured into dams (ie. salmon counts going down and working it's way through the food chain).
Ah, but the natural environment is counted in econ schemes. Neither is pollution or anything of the sort -the natural environment is considered infinite and valueless -unless you develop it.

Or so I remember from econ.

What kind of world is it where a strip mall has more value than a forest?

I don't know whether or not a dam would be more efficient than a paddle wheel.  Maybe an engineer could answer that.  But it would be on a smaller scale, which I think is the key.  Whether its PV, wind, solar, hydro, biomass, oil, etc, the less you take out of the system, the smaller the impact you have.  Running your home on a home-made paddle wheel would limit the amount of energy you consume.

Unfortunately, as you pointed out the other day, the rules of economics consider natural resources to be infinite, so under those rules, the paddle wheel is probably not economically viable.

Ok, so I bring up econ and we got off on infinite resources.  I never said anything about infinite resources, as a matter of fact I am the guy bitching about that to my econ professors.

Step out side that box.  I saying from econ we learn about externalized costs associated with large scale macro damage that isn't counted per unit b/c the margins are fuzzy.  However when you aggregate that up to the system wide numbers and you see the big picture.  Think of the damage done to the ecosystem through burning fossil fuels.  The people who sell it don't bear the cost of damage that it does, we as a people and now planet, do.  We pay in increased breathing diseases, problems ,illnesses etc.  

The whole gammit of stuff that is caused by burning this crap is paid for by each individual, thus the true costs to burn fossil fuel per gallon isn't $3 it's probably significantly higher.  How high who knows, but to even grasp at that kind of number you need good data that correlates well between past generation #'s compared to now.  This is why there are few econ studies on what the true cost is.

I think you misunderstood my comment.  I wasn't accusing you of calling natural resources infinite.  I know it was your professor who said that, and I was trying to give you credit for seeing through a flawed assumption that is prevalent in your academic field, but I was in a hurry and articulated it very poorly.  I actually think your field needs more people like you to challenge some of the beliefs that may not always be applicable.
Falcon Lake on the Rio Grande began to silt up in less than two decades after it was built. Lake Eufaula, above the Walter F. George Lock and Dam on the Chattahoochee River, must be continually dredged to remove the silt. The Dam was built in the early sixties.

The above link is about the silting of Lake Eufaula but it also contains a picture of the very silted up Falcon Lake. It is not much of a lake anymore, mostly silt.

The amount of silting depends on several things, primarily the amount of silt carried by the river. For this reason the Dams on the Tennessee river silt up very slowely. There are many dams on the river therefore the silt dumped in any reservoir must come primarily from feeder rivers downstream of the last upstream dam. That is the silt in the entire Tennessee River will be dumped in a dozen or so reservoirs, reducing the silt in any one reservoir. But this is not so for many other man made reservoirs. And yes some do silt up in as little as two decades, and many silt up in four or five decades.

From your linked article:
Just one cubic meter of silt displaces 264 gallons of water, according to Hall, who works for the Pine Mountain Soil & Water Conservation District.

Heh, heh. He could have just as easily said one cubic meter of silt displaces 61023 cubic inches of water ;^)

All hydro systems do NOT silt up.

Few, in any, run-of-river projects do.  Clean water rivers do not silt up (nothing measurable after 60+ years on the Sog in Iceland for example.

Others have good silt regimes and flush once a year to once a decade.

Karahnjukar has a 400 year life span and could, if they limited flushing turn a dead river today (all natural) into a salmon river by limiting flushing to every third year or so.

All reseroirs eventually silt up. It depends on your timeframe. Very clean rivers may take centuries to silt up. Very dirty rivers, like the Rio Grande, silt up in just a few decades. The Falcon Lake is an example.

Even all lakes are temporary and after a few tens of thousands of years silt up. The Great Lakes, carved out by the last Ice Age, will silt up in about a hundred thousand years or so. If swift water carries silt to still water where it settles, it will eventually silt up. End of story.

Dams are the source of many types of pollution. Lead, cadmium and other metals, but especially mercury, cause contamination of wildlife and people. the Cree in Quebec can tell you stories.

And then there's this; what is most renewable about dams is their emission of greenhouse gases.

Hydroelectric power's dirty secret revealed

New Scientist, Feb '05

Hydroelectric dams produce significant amounts of carbon dioxide and methane, and in some cases produce more of these greenhouse gases than power plants running on fossil fuels. Carbon emissions vary from dam to dam, says Philip Fearnside from Brazil's National Institute for Research in the Amazon in Manaus. "But we do know that there are enough emissions to worry about."

In a study to be published in Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Fearnside estimates that in 1990 the greenhouse effect of emissions from the Curuá-Una dam in Pará, Brazil, was more than three-and-a-half times what would have been produced by generating the same amount of electricity from oil.

This is because large amounts of carbon tied up in trees and other plants are released when the reservoir is initially flooded and the plants rot. Then after this first pulse of decay, plant matter settling on the reservoir's bottom decomposes without oxygen, resulting in a build-up of dissolved methane. This is released into the atmosphere when water passes through the dam's turbines.

Seasonal changes in water depth mean there is a continuous supply of decaying material. In the dry season plants colonise the banks of the reservoir only to be engulfed when the water level rises. For shallow-shelving reservoirs these "drawdown" regions can account for several thousand square kilometres.

I note that the article refers to the relative greenhouse effect for 1990.  What is the situation today?  What will it be in 10 years from now?

As for the Cree, their health problems relate overwhelmingly to cultural discontinuity and economic marginalization, leading to a loss of self-esteem and the consequences therefrom. Moreover, many suffer the effects of a disastrous adoption of the worst of 'western' food to their dietary regime, not necessarily from choice.  These problems affect Cree and other native peoples living far away from any Hydro Electric watersheds or dams, as well as those of Northern Quebec.

There are problems with damming rivers, to be sure.  Some situations are much worse than others. I favour the removal of many dams.  But are we going to have a greater or lesser problem with lead, mercury and cadmium pollution without hydro-electricity?

I note that the article refers to the relative greenhouse effect for 1990.  What is the situation today?  What will it be in 10 years from now?

The emissions are there to stay, and continue, that's what the article says quire clearly. No difference 10 years from now. I don't see how that could be unclear if you read it.

As for the Cree, their health problems relate overwhelmingly to cultural discontinuity and economic marginalization, leading to a loss of self-esteem and the consequences therefrom. Moreover, many suffer the effects of a disastrous adoption of the worst of 'western' food to their dietary regime, not necessarily from choice.  These problems affect Cree and other native peoples living far away from any Hydro Electric watersheds or dams, as well as those of Northern Quebec.

There are large mercury pollution problems in the population that lives close to these projects. Dragging in other 'cultural' problems is plain weird, and has no connection to the issue. This is a very specific form of pollution, that relates directly to hydro dams. Why not read what they have to say? They can explain their health problems better than you can, including this one.


There are problems with damming rivers, to be sure.  Some situations are much worse than others. I favour the removal of many dams.  But are we going to have a greater or lesser problem with lead, mercury and cadmium pollution without hydro-electricity?

The mercury is specifically released through the inundation of large amounts of land and land-based vegetation. It would under 'normal' circumstances remain in the soil and plants. Nothing ambiguous about it. Did you read it at all?

'emissions'. From plants dying on the shore of a hypothetical man made lake. Somehow this doesn't seem like a pressing issue. Wouldn't the plants absorb carbon when growing? Then just release it if they died after being inundated?
Doesn't this happen in every wetland every year?
Roel,

The trees decay once and release greenhouse emissions once. After a number of years the amount of CO2 and methane emissions changes.  Logically it declines at some point.
As is pointed out above, the reqrowth and death of plantlife on the shoreline involves sequestration and release.

On the other hand, the emissions from hydrocarbon generated electricity increase as the quality of the hydrocarbon decreases and as the amount of hydrocarbon consumed to produce the fuel increases.

Therefore overtime the equasion changes.  The ratio provided for the dam in South America in relation to hydro-carbon generated electricity is not stagnant and logically changes in favour, from an emissions standpoint, of the hydro electric dam.  So I asked you if you could provide information on the rate of change in this ratio.

I'm well aware of the adverse affects of mercury contamination from hydro development for Cree and others, especially those dependent on traditional fisheries.  I am also aware that the mercury contamination is a relatively minor cause of poor physical and mental health outcomes experienced by first nations since Europeans began the rape of this continent.  I was only trying to provide context and did not wish to diminish the nefarious effects of mercury contamination, especially for those people who were unaware that their traditional fish diet was post reservoir killing them.

Are we going to have a greater or lesser problem with mercury and other contaminants without hydro-electricity?  I ask this question not in the sense of dam or no dam, but in the sense of hydro-electricity or coal-generated electricity, coal being the evident worldwide preferred option, when alternatives are denied.  I should have been clearer.  

I must say that I couldn't find anything on the link to the Cree website re mercury pollution.  Perhaps I missed it.  I did note comments from various representatives of the Cree relating to the economic opportunities presented by hydro development.  It is perhaps regrettable that so much has been lost, but life goes on and I'm glad that the Cree are insisting on leading their own way out of the wilderness of despair that has afflicted so many of their communities in recent decades.  

It's not obvious to me where those metals you name would come from.  Are they in the natural river-run of silt, but normally washed out of the river?
Mercury exists widely in the environment.  In newly flooded areas it is leached out of the soil.  Combining with carbon it forms methyl mercury which is concentrated up the marine food chain. People eat the predatory fish at the top of the marine food chain.

I would be interested in learning if the rate of methyl mercury formation declined over time, it seems logical that it would,  and if methyl mercury deteriorates or is dispersed over time.  Maybe someone has some leads?

Thanks.  I would not have guessed.
I would have guessed that coal was related to the mercury exposure around James Bay in two ways.  

Direct mercury emmissions from coal burning and fell in an area with few natural buffers/adsorption agents.  And the acid rain allows leaching from the ground (this has been noted in the US NE and most boreal rains are naturally neutral.  Add acid rain from coal burning > leaching).

Hydro power is only "partially renewable" in large part because of the "silting" problem:  over time, the reservoir behind the dam fills up with silt from the river (this might seem like it would require HUGE amounts of silt--it does, but consider how much silt it took to build up the giant deltas of the Mississippi or the Nile).  When the reservoir silts up to the top of the dam, then water flows over the top, undercuts the base of the dam, and it destroys itself.  So, to prevent this, it is necessary to invest ever-increasing energy into de-silting.  At some point the energy required in de-silting operations exceeds that gained through hydropower generation.  Estimates for the useful life of some of the major US dams are about 150 years without major de-silting.  So massive hydropower projects tend to be only "partially renewable" for this reason...
Assuming that water flowing over the top of dam is a problem which leads to unavoidable undercutting, it doesn't strike me that it would be that much of problem to divert the water through tunnels/penstocks.  

I would be interested if you can provide evidence that undercutting is a real problem.  

If a dam silts up, the intake will likely need to be reworked and the project turned into a run-of-river scheme.  More turbines may need to be added due to the greater variability of the water flow.

Done properly, the silt basin could turn into fine farmland.

Not the big dams, there incredibly destructive. CA doesn't count large hydro renewable.

I've got to believe that the equivalent megawattage in distributed small dams would have more environmental impact than one large one.

It's like thinking that once we go back to the stone age, we'll all just be camping out and cooking our dinners over six billion wood fires. Probably won't really be an improvement over fossil fuel...

Note to outsiders, in California for some reason, "large hydro" is not a renewable energy source, but "small hydro" is.

I can see the utility of funding small hydro along with other alternatives, and I can see that for the purposes of funding and reward people would make that distinction.

BUT, as a consumer wanting to get off fossil fuels, do we really count large hydro as non-renewable?  I hope not.

Hi Odo,

I've always enjoyed your posts.

"BUT, as a consumer wanting to get off fossil fuels, do we really count large hydro as non-renewable?  I hope not."

Large hydro is a tough one. I think technically that it does fit in the "renewables" category. However, it is a renewable that is demonstrably highly destructive to ecosystems. This goes beyond fish runs. The reduction of salmon along many Western rivers apparently has had large-scale systemic consequences for the terrestrial ecosystems that the rivers course through. One set of links includes bears eating salmon, then carrying all that good fishy stuff in their gut as they travel inland, and finally expelling the associated nutrients (a bear processed "fish fertilizer", if you will) throughout the surrounding forests. If I remember correctly, there apparently has been a forest response to the loss of these nutrients, with reduced growth.

This is just one example of what large-scale changes on major rivers can do. Given the time scale of nutrient cycling, I think we're just beginning to see the kinds of effects that large hydro projects can have.

If you can locate a few, read some of these peer-reviewed articles.

-best

Thanks, and I agree.  It comes down to how necessary this evil really is.  Or how evil this necessity is?
People keep ignoring the very significant fact that CA has periodic drought episodes that essentially dry up the hydro power. Do we need backup power for when the dams go down?

The current Tanzania situation should be sobering. 60% of their power is hydro, the dams are drying up, and the economy is devastated. This is real, not a concept or concern to be dismissed.

Yeah, it'll get interesting when the next "mother of all droughts" hits. Something akin to 1976-77, or earlier events. 1976-77 was a big one for the entire West. I understand that hydrologists are rather worried about the next big drought, because the demand on water supply is so high in California these days.

-best

Thanks for the links. People also need to realize that available power capacity drops as the reservoir level drops, reducing the head on the water. Also droughts lead to energy crisis situations lasting months or years, not hours or days.
Yes, that's right. But you are talking about normal droughts. There is an elephant in the room. Global warming. Climate change. When the climate changes none of the historical data means squat anymore.
Of course those who plan on getting electricity from their project for 100 or 400 or 1000 years and think climate change is on the same time scale, if it exists at all, can continue with their dreaming.
Great sites!  Thank you.

The point that the whole US was much dryer in the mid 1500s is fascinating and is part of the 'great mystery'.

To wit, it is now estimated that the population of North and South America in 1491 was 10 times what we thought it was- -there were substantial urban communities in the Midwest for example.  Yet by the time colonisation began in earnest in the mid 1500s, and in the 1600s in North America, much of the population was gone-- the Midwest was governed by nomads.

Part of the answer is disease.  Smallpox in particular.  When George Vancouver toured the Pacific Northwest in the late 1780s (I think) he found villages that were abandoned, so many of their inhabitants had died of smallpox.

It is hypothesised that smallpox (and perhaps various forms of Asian flu) brought by the white man devastated native communities.

But perhaps climate change is another part of the story.

Also the point made that California has endured 2 century droughts.

In the short run, the decision could be made to give up on agriculture in California.  I read that actual domestic use isn't a big part of the whole picture.

Something similar will happen in the US southwest, the Ogala Aquifer states.  The Aquifer is rapidly being depleted, and urbanisation is consuming all of the existing water resources.

But making the choice to give up agriculture is hard.  Very hard.  Politically and socially. I don't see it happening without a fight.

Good planning requires backup generation, or users who agree to reduce demand (aluminum smelters).

Thailand is going to 100% hydro in wet years, 95% in average years and 70% in dry years.  They are planning on keeping their fossil fuel plants in mothballs for dry years.

In the specific case of Africa, the 44 GW of Grand Inga could support the shortfalls on the continent.  The Congo watershed is split in half by the equator, so it has a uniquely stable flow.  Worst case in 120 years is about 60% of average.  Annual minimum is a bit more than half of annual maximum.

They are talking about seasonal production of ammonia with annual excess.

Wind has about half the annual variation of rainfall, and low wind years do not seem tied to low water years.  Another part of the marriage of the two.

Informative post, thanks. I am mainly not interested in more huge canyon filling/destroying dams in CA, but I support smaller projects that are less destructive and agree that arbitrary cut-offs at 50mW are ridiculous. I get tired of some ppl arguing that building big dams will necessarily answer our problems or even work. For example, there are big advocates of a new Auburn dam on the American River that might never fill, wld cost over 5 billion and destroy an unbelievable amount of canyon land. I think it wouild be a huge waste/loss.
What's the backup plan for global warming?
Reminds me of one more problem with dams. In tropical areas especially, but also anywhere the flooded area supported vegetation, there are large releases of methane.
And one more obvious one: Every post above except for the guy who wants to keep his canyon (yes, it's personal) ascribes zero value to the flooded land. The people displaced. The critters displaced. How does this blindspot perpetuate itself? It's a normative blindspot in these discussions but I just don't get it.
The methane thing was why I mentioned the dam's environment and the degree of land preparation (biomass collection).

We could also add back in the plusses.  People built dams for a variety of reasons, well before there was electric power generation.

Yes dams have been around a long time. Can anyone think of a large one before electrical power generation?
That's a trick question ;-), because large scale construction equipment evolved about the same time as electric power generation.

But there was a very ancient example of large scale water management in China.  Something about an engineer who later became a saint, or something?  ... Discovery Chanel.

Maybe this relates:

http://english.people.com.cn/200212/11/eng20021211_108307.shtml

Amusing snippet:

"Judging from these records, the dam's water levels during Qing Dynasty (1644-1911) were lower than in modern times, Li said."

Anyway, flood control, levies, irrigation, are as old as civilization.

Yup it's especially personal now that I live here, but I felt the same way before. I posted on my concerns for habitat and otehr environmental concerns on an earlier thread.
I'm completely with you. Yours is what I would expect as the normal response. How we get to the point where we drown landscapes, whole regions, because it looks good on some spreadsheet.........
Alan,

Could you provide a link to the Thailand claim, which does not appear to be remotely accurate?

I don't believe Thailand is planning to build, or could build any more large hydro plants. The public goes nuts.

Thailand does import a fair bit of hyrdo electricity from Laos.

Thailand is also planning to build several new coal fired power plants. These have been slowed somewhat because of lower demand.

Thailand will get 100% of their electricity from hydro in wet years, mostly Laotian hydro.  I got the numebrs from the EDF guy in charge of building Nam Theun II during the Q&A after his presentation at HydroVision in Portland.

IMHO, NT II is an environmentally acceptable project (so does the World Bank in their first hydro project in decades) and MUCH better than importing NG from Mynanmar or oil for electricity.

N T II will supply all of Laotian electricity and about half of Thailands.  Build a dam in the headwaters, drill a tunnel to where the river curves back and drop the water ~350 meters.  Lots of power from limited water that "bypasses" a good stretch of the river.  Relatively small dam and environmental impact for 1,040 MW, ~6,000 MWh.