415 comments on DrumBeat: September 21, 2006
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415 comments on DrumBeat: September 21, 2006
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I would like to continue the debate on what determines oil prices> because I believe the issue has not been settled.
Robert Rapier and OilCEO, in their posts two days ago, said it is primarily supply and demand that sets the price of oil, Coilin and several others disagree. Coilin posted a link, which says that it is a combination of the NYMEX and the IPE prices that determine the price of oil. I cannot get the link to work today however.
Coilin pointed out that the amount of WTI and Brent crude actually traded is tiny, far less than 1 percent of all oil traded. And I would point out that the actual amount of trades on either the NYMEX or IPE that results in the actual delivery of any oil is also tiny. Probably also less than 1 percent of all trades actually ends with the delivery of any actual oil. That is, they are settled in cash, either before the close or at the close of the contract.
However, and this is very important, the actual number of contract barrels traded daily on the NYMEX alone, is approximately three times the number of barrels of oil actually traded around the world. For instance just yesterday approximately 251,000 futures contracts were traded. Over 62 percent of those contracts were for the near term October contract. Each contract was for 1,000 barrels of oil. That means that contracts for 251 million barrels of oil changed hands on the NYMEX yesterday, about three times the world volume of oil traded in the entire world. And that does not count the contracts traded on the IPE or the Tokyo exchanges.
I maintained, for several years, that NYMEX traders watch the spot price and other news around the world and try to follow, as near as they can that price. That is, if they see something that will make the price rise, they will andicipate a higher spot price in oil and move accordingly. However I am now having second thoughts. It seems that speculators and hedge funds do cause the price of oil to move. For instance the recent move from the high 70s to near 60$ was caused by speculators and hedge fund managers dumping contracts on the NYMEX.
What would have happened if they had not dumped their contracts? Would the spot price of oil dropped anyway. I don't really think so. It looks like that speculators, including hedge fund mangers that are also speculators, do control the price of oil.
Ron Patterson
It strikes me as something that will be endlessly dynamic. Monday's answer is not Teusday's answer, etc.
Um, just about everything you can imagine?
Or how about, the price of oil where? I imagine the price of oil leaking out of a Saudi pipeline in a desert is very different than the price of Alaskan oil leaking into the tundra, using a number of different scales to measure it.
Or how about, nothing controls the price? The operative term being 'control.'
Wrong! I can imagine thousands of things that have no affect on the price of oil. The question is whether supply and demand or speculators and hedge fund managers control the price of oil. Pay attention!
Are you taking up space on this list by just trying to be funny? Any damn fool knows we are not talking about oil spilled in the snow or sand. If you have some intelligence to add to this discussion please do so and stop posting nonsense.
The price of oil, all over the world moves together. If WTI spot price goes up, contracted oil from Saudi Arabia goes up as well. Check out world spot prices as compared to contract prices here.
Ron Patterson
As for price being influenced by anything you can imagine - prices are set by human beings. As a matter of fact, price itself is something that is imagined, looked at in the sense that price is a human construct, agreed to by those engaged in the transaction. For example, the money I use to pay for things every day does not say anything about the United States - and the price is not in dollars anyways. The fact that you imagine a factor to have nothing to do with price has absolutely nothing to do with two other people thinking it does - and if they are the ones buying and selling, your not being able to imagine what is influencing them is meaningless. To give a hint - look at how the Soviet Union used oil as a political tool.
As for the example of oil leaking - a bit obscure, but I decided to leave the explanation out. In Saudi Arabia, the infrastructure in place has been fairly simple to build and expand, and in that sense a barrel of oil in Saudi Arabia tends to have a production 'price' value which seems to be either in the penny or very low dollar range. On the other hand, the oil being produced in Alaska has extensive costs associated with it. In other words, what is the 'price' of a barrel of oil being leaked in the desert compared to the tundra? For the oil producer, that difference is measurable in terms of cost, as compared to price. This was a poorly done reference to the idea that the cost of producing oil keeps going up (in terms of infrastructure, for example), regardless of the price. Oil may be fungible, but the cost of production has a certain influence on how much the oil is worth, regardless of price.
Price is not an illusion, far from it, but price is not physical reality either. And I didn't even begin to touch upon EROEI - is it possible to even have a price for something which could be seen as negative - if it takes 5 units of X to produce 4 units of X, is price relevant? At some point, price capitulates in the face of reality - if you can imagine that. For example, how much does a passenger pigeon egg currently cost, or is price just a foolish perspective in terms of passenger pigeon eggs, from someone being anything but funny?
On inventories, the following points make the number not very meaningful:
- Now (9/06) the only reason US oil inventories are up are because of draw downs in the US SPR that haven't been replaced.
- As Days Forward Cover, current US inventories (minus SPR withdrawls is at the low range.
- Minimum US crude oil stocks for proper functioning of the system according to Matt Simmons are between 280 and 300M barrels - now we are "awash" with crude with 325M barrels, that only 1 to 3 days of supply before problems.
- Almost all countries in the world except the US (because we've drawn down and not replaced our SPR) have lower than average oil stocks in 2006.
- Drawdown in US SPR
http://www2.spr.doe.gov/DIR/SilverStream/Pages/pgDailyInventoryReportViewDOE_new.html Strategic Petroleum Reserve Net movement of 13.4M total from Sept 05 through Oct 06. Net US SPR drawdown of 11M barrels, net OECD donation of 2.4M barrels. No new fillings of US SPR ordered since Sept 05 and for foreseeable future.Very good info. Thanks.
Actually it is easy to get this idea -- the latest EIA weekly oil report released 9/20/06 begins with the title "How Low Can it Go?" and relies on both "technical" chart data (it is stated that the decline represents "the second-largest uninterrupted decline in the history of the survey (dating back to August 1990") and then also uses inventories as a reason why oil prices are dropping. A chart is very conspicuous that shows higher than average crude oil inventories (of course no mention of world oil inventories and the fact that we've withdrawn from the SPR). No other reasons are given for the price decline. see: http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/twip/twip.asp
As near as I can figure it .. all the dynamic
forces in the market place are played out on
a daily basis and reflected in the then current
spot contract price .. All the industry players dealing
in the actual physical commodity price their "deals"
at some differential to that spot price ..
Triff ..
(Not necessarily quickly, though. I believe there's a big correction coming up, from the fact that the market has ignored that oil is finite and immensely hard to replace, but this underpricing has been going on for decades.)
"Why does the NYMEX and the spot price for WTIC close at exactly the same price for 17 of the 20 trading days in each month? That just don't make any damn sense."
I posted a late reply, which I'll re-post here:
This (pdf) document by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland answers your question:
"When most major U.S. newspapers
report the spot price of oil, they are
referring to the one-month NYMEX
futures price. A NYMEX crude oil
future is a contract for 1,000 barrels of
domestic light, sweet crude oil. To be
included in the contract, the oil must
meet specifications on sulfur content
and density. Because WTI meets these
standards, it is often traded in NYMEX
contracts. Therefore, the one-month
NYMEX crude oil futures price and
WTI spot price are nearly identical. An
exception to this is at the end of the
month, when the NYMEX futures contract
expires three days before the WTI
spot contract."
There is something in the above I don't really understand: is the 'spot' WTI actually a one-month contract? If not, how come it has an expiry date?
(WTI is really WTIC, or West Texas Intermediate in Cushing, Oklohoma.)
No, WTIC is not a one month contract, it is oil traded. Refineries actually West Texas Intermediate out of the Cushing, Oklohoma hub. It is actually oil, not a contract.
Ron Patterson
Ron Patterson
"An exception to this is at the end of the
month, when the NYMEX futures contract
expires three days before the WTI
spot contract."
So what does this mean? I understand what the NYMEX futures contract expiring means, but what does the WTI spot contract expiring mean if it is not also some sort of a one-month contract? What is an expiry date for a spot contract?
You ask whether NYMEX pegs to Cushing or the other way around. I agree that this is never made sufficiently clear, but my understanding is that Cushing pegs to NYMEX.
In support of this, I would point out that before the WTI there was the ANS reference price, and that due to oil depletion, there was often no actual physical oil delivered, and yet the futures trading continued nonetheless. This sounds absurd, but to me it shows that the futures trading at NYMEX does not need Cushing to determine prices.
Oil of course is contracted out of the Cushing hub, just as oil is contracted by the tanker load out of Saudi Arabia. But it is not a monthly contract and has no monthly expiration date. Buyers contract for so many thousand barrels from the Cushing hub, or from Venezuela or from wherever.
I repeat, the spot price for WTIC has no monthly expiration date. The price changes daily and it is always quoted as the spot price.
Ron Patterson
http://66.102.9.104/search?q=cache:H4MFwpncAGoJ:www.iaee.org/documents/99fall.pdf+%22three+days%22%2 Bnymex%2Bwti%2Bexpires&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=13&client=opera
[...]
"Unlike petroleum products and crude oil delivered
by tanker, the term "spot" in a pipeline delivery system (such as used for West Texas Intermediate, the crude oil traded on NYMEX) refers to one month forward, the soonest it is possible to deliver. For example, the spot price for WTI in June refers to July delivery (until June 25, when the July pipeline delivery schedule is drawn up; afterwards, it refers to August delivery). The nearby futures price in June also refers to July (until June 22, when the July contract expires; afterwards it refers to August)."
[...]
Nothing has changed in the fundamentals or the geopolitics since early August. The "price fall is the sharpest in 15 years", so all bets are off.
Let's go back to May, shall we? Washington Post:
Now, the present. Washington Post Again: Now, all of a sudden, Bush is "Mr. Reasonable" -- where was he in May? See Leanan's chart at the very top of this page on the relationship between gas prices and Bush's popularity.I'll wait until November before I take oil prices seriously again.
But where is the discussion / investigation about this?
Oh and about the gold thing, I've known about this for awhile. My spring semester last year I took some gata.org printouts and we discussed this for about 20 minutes. He swore up and down it isn't really happening since there is no hard data from the sources doing dumping and such. He basically just defended the status quo without and ammo. I've got this guy again this semester. The first day of class he made it clear he remembered me. I took my first test Tues and I await my results. It seemed uber simple and short which usually is good for me.
After reading that...
In my head I am watching the classic Monty Python skit.
I Came here for an argument,
No You didn't,
Yes I did....
This is not an argument, you are merely taking the opposite side.
No I'm Not,
Yes you are......
Sounds like CROSSFIRE
sad sad sad sad...
in contrast, when "produced," oil and gas are used up, and stockpiles are not very impressive. At this point it appears nobody has the ability to lower the price for any length of time; though a number of countries (and financial entities) have the ability to cause prices to skyrocket.
It couldn't have come at a better time for the Republican party. I've got to ask, as we should all ask -- what's going on here? Again, I say it -- the fundamentals have not changed.
It looks like some very serious money has poured into commodities, jacking up the price; and after taking a soaking they are pulling out.
Oil prices are going down far less than gold, apparently. But the hedge fund manipulation has clearly distorted all commodity prices.
I'll repost a comment here that I posted in that Kos topic:
How to lower the price of gas at the pump
My tin foil hat sparked and smoked when I saw that futures contract volume for crude oil shot up as prices went down:
Suppose that somebody was simply creating futures out of thin air and dumping them on the market, causing the law of supply and demand to reduce prices. Ridiculous? What if your crooked political party is tanking in the polls and you want to give them a shot in the arm by causing lower gasoline prices.
If futures are cheaper, spot prices go down too.
But you just can't create crude oil futures out of thin air... futures are regulated by the Feds. They're regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. But what if you installed a Neocon True Believer to head up that commission?
Introducing Chairman Reuben Jeffery III.
Heckuva job, Reuben! But wait -- he did have actual experience on Wall Street and wouldn't Goldman Sachs make a super duper double secret agent for the crude oil-futures dumpage?
So, while this is tin-foil hat conspiracy theory supreme, it is possibile to control gasoline prices if you can control the supply of derivatives. Amaranth? Natural gas prices tanking is simply an unintended consequence. Not everybody understands that crude oil, natural gas, coal and ethanol prices are much more connected than they used to be. Oil goes down, natural gas goes down and so do all energy commodities.
OK, I'll have to see if Patrick Fitzgerald is still busy with that Plame thing and then ask him to get on it.
Okay - this sounds suspicious even to me. But its what I recollect as the explanation of how such futures markets work.
Any experts in futures contract creation?
Contracts likewise disappear into thin air, with money's exchanged of course. If I close my contract with $1,000 profit at the same time you close your contract at a $1,000 loss, the brokerage house debits your account $1,000 and credits my account $1,000 and the contract simply disappears.
Thousands of contracts are created daily and thousands of contracts disappear daily. And they are created out of thin air and disappear into thin air.
Ron Patterson
If you think someone was manupliating the market, driving the price of oil down by selling futures contracts, then they will literally lose billions trying to do that. They sold oil at $75 now they are obliged to buy that oil back at $62 or whatever the price is when the contract expires. They lose $13,000 per contract. It would take tens of thousands of contracts to move the market even a dollar or so. So any fool who tries to move the market with futures contracts had better be a multi-billionaire, and be prepared to lose it.
Ron Patterson
Hell, what a great ides. Now all I need is a few billion to make a few more billion.
Ron Patterson
It's just a shame hedge funds are not regulated by the SEC, but you know, I think we can trust them to do what's right for everyone...don't you?
Hell, what a great idea. Now all I need is a few billion to make a few more billion.
That was precisely the sales pitch Hunter used on Amaranth <ggg>
Triff
Darwinian, I'm sorry it's not that easy, your billionaire will not make the kind of money that you think he will. Let's take a look at this senario closely, because I think misunderstanding of the futures market is where alot of conspiracy ideas arise.
First off, you can't just sell a boat load of commodity contracts in an instant at a desired price. In fact, this works with anything stocks, oil futures, marbles, ice cream (it will melt before you can get enough people to eat it :) ). Let's take a look at what actually happens to the billionaire who tries to make money by 'controlling' the market.
Just because someone puts alot of contracts up for sell on the market for $75, doesn't mean he'll sell them all. He'll sell a few until the $75-buyers are all 'used up'. Then the price is sure to drop. If all of these sell orders are limit orders then the rest of his orders will go unfilled, because they are too far above market price. That is, until maybe the market rises again, some more $75 buyers arise, and some of his orders get filled. Only thing is, he hasn't really caused a drop in the price, he's just kept it at a certain level (for now).
But, let's say he enters these orders as market orders. Well, then he could sell alot more of his contracts, and yes drive the price down. Only thing is with each contract he sells, the price he gets is progressively lower, which is no good for him.
Regardless, in both instances, this billionaire has accumulated a lot of 'sell' contracts and has two options - either closeout the contracts before they expire or he can wait for them to expire, taking on the obligation to physcially provide the oil that he has sold.
In the first case, 'Billionaire Bob' tries to profit by closing out his sell contracts. But, wait he has so many! Remember, this guy has sold HUGE amounts of oil, enough to cause the market to tank. Just to close them out before the due date, he's buying any sell contract he can, but the price keeps rising, because again he is affecting the market, but this time in the opposite direction. I imagine that when he is done with his buying spree to close out all his contracts the price will have gone back up somewhere close to where he started selling, pending no large changes in the fundamentals.
In the second case Bob decides to take his contracts to the expiration date. Oh boy, he better be ready to pony up huge amounts of light sweet crude on the delivery date, because he is now obligated to do so. If he doesn't have it all, he's going to have to purchase from someone on the spot market, because he's in a pinch. I see the sharks circling...
Even is this guy does have has some oil reserves somewhere to provide the oil he sold on the market, whether he makes money depends on at what price he bought the reserves, which is not guaranteed to be lower. Plus, he's got storage fees and not to mention tying up all that capital.
But one might, if one had billions in margin money, sell enough countracts on the market, "at the market price", to drive the price down. Then one just might buy those contracts back at a lower price if one's timing is right.
I know very well that closing a contract in one direction has the exact opposite effect that opeaning it in the other direction does, all things being equal. But all things are not always equal. Early in a new contract month, for the close in contract, volume is always much less than in the last hours of the life of the contract. Therefore the sale of one contract, or many contracts, does not cause the same movement as many contracts in a much thinner market.
There is another strategy. First buy puts. Then sell the contracts, drive the price down, then close out your puts for a handsom profit. Then when the price is still low, buy calls, one call for every short contract you have. Then close out your short contracts driving the price back up, exactly like you said it would. Then close out your calls for a handsome profit.
With the above stratgey you would make nothing on your futures contracts but you would make a fortune with your puts and calls. Tell me why it would not work. Provided you had had the necessary margin money to margin thousands of contracts.
Of course the SEC may have a thing or two to say about such a stratgey, but other than that....;-)
Ron Patterson
Puts and calls cannot move the money unless traders see a huge amount of calls or puts and suspect that someone knows something they don't. But there is no way possible, unless that happens, that puts or calls can move the market. Traders usually totally ignore the amount of options traded.
A put or call that expires out of the money expires worthless. A put or call that expires in the money is worth exactly the amount it is in the money. Buyers of options take no risk other than the price of the option. Sellers of options take a tremendous risk. If one sells a put or call and the market moves against them they are required to buy back the put or call at the market price. If the put or call is deep in the money and you sold it when it was out of the money, it could cost you a lot of money.
I once traded heavily in futures and options. I am well familiar with how they work.
Ron Patterson
An at the market option has a delta of .5, which means it will move in price 1/2 as much as the underlying. As soon as someone buys or sells options, the marketmaker(unless they are adjusting their own delta or gamma) has to hedge this new exposure, which they do by buying or selling the underlying (in this case) for 1/2 the size. I assure you, options trades, in many markets, move the market considerably. Its all about the delta. The point here being that anyone with enough capital could dramatically move energy markets (or any other markets) just by buying options and no futures at all.
There is no formula that can tell you how much an out of the money an option will lose or gain as the underlying contract moves toward it or further away from it. It all depends on the volatility of the contract. A high volatility option will carry a much higher time premium than one with much less volatility. But an in the money option is an entirely different thing. An in the money option carries a premium exactly equal to the amount it is in the money plus any time premium.
Suppose you buy a $70 put when the price is exactly $70. Suppose you paid $2.50 for that put. Then the option has no intristic (in the money) value, only time premium. Suppose the contract moves to $60 where it expires. You would get exactly $10 for that option when the seller must buy it back. You make $7.50. That would be the $10 the option moved in the money minus the time premium of $2.50 it had when you bought it.
That is exactly how it works Nate.
Ron Patterson
If you bought a put for $2.50 then it would cost you $2,500. And if it expired $10 in the money then you would collect $10,000 and have a profit $7,500 after you substracted the amount you paid for the option.
An options buyer can lose only the amount he/she pays for the option. But a seller risks the total amount the underlying stock or contract can move against him.
Ron Patterson
In another life I wrote my masters thesis at University of Chicago on options pricing -believe me, there do exist formulas for determining how much an option will go up or down in price based on the movement of the underlying. Fisher Black and Myron Scholes made millions consulting hedge funds on this very concept.
But we are getting far afield. Im not disagreeing with your explanation of intrinsic value or time premium. The main issue I am trying to make clear is not what you or I get when we buy an option as an investment or speculative position, but what happens to the MARKET. (Since youve admitted in this thread that speculators DO impact the energy markets (and HOW recently...;))
The locals in the energy pits at NYMEX do occasionally keep decent size overnight positions for various reasons but most brokers try and go home flat, or as close to flat as possible. If someone comes to buy 10000 crude oil contracts at $70, the local or group of locals who sold those contracts has to buy them back somewhere to hedge, (hopefully lower) - they wont just stay short the 10,000 contracts they just sold to someone! Now, if someone comes in and buys 20,000 contracts worth of $70 strike price call options, this trade has the IDENTICAL impact on market prices, as the local will have to hedge out the mathematical exposure of those calls he just shorted (whose delta makes them worth precisely 10,000 long contracts IN MARKET EXPOSURE). Traders are constantly monitoring their delta (how sensitive their position is to a move in the underlying) and their gamma( how sensitive their delta is)
Im not talking gain or loss, profit or margin here - just the fact that the options markets can and do move the price of the underlying. As I stated previously, an at the money option purchase will impact the market 1/2 as much as a futures purchase.
Yeah, apparently not at Amaranth, though.
Supposedly, Citadel and some other large hedge funds have purchased the remaining assets so the selling pressure on NG (for that reason) might abate for a while. Interestingly, their bet wasnt directly long or short but they had spread trades on - were long dec 06 through Mar 07 and short other contracts, which explains why the calendar spread volatility in NG futures has been crazy of late.
The story is still (amazingly) under the radar, since it seems no laws have been broken. Stay away from hedge funds.
What's even better is that several very, very big players like Morgan Stanley appear to have been caught in this mess.
Alright, go collect some mushrooms, Bigfoot :)
Incorrect The SEC controlls ALL trades and licenses all brokers. All publically traded equities are authorized by the SEC. All futures and options trades are authorized and monitored by the SEC. The SEC is there to prevent fraud, and in spite of what some conspiracy theorists think, they do a damn good job of it.
If I ran a hedge fund and tried to buy puts or calls, then move the market by buying or shorting massive amounts of futures contracts, the SEC would be on me like ugly on a monkey.
Ron Patterson
Although hedge funds are exempt from SEC regulation, they are still subject to criminal laws, and the SEC has prosecuted a number of hedge fund managers for fraud, misstating fund returns, or stealing from hedge fund customers.
Sources:
Hedging Your Bets: A Heads Up on Hedge Funds and Funds of Hedge Funds
REGULATION IN BRIEF: Hedge Fund Regulation
SEC re-evaluates hedge fund regulation
Goldstein v. SEC (warning: PDF file)
http://www.sec.gov/about/commissioner/cox.htm
Naaa...I guess I'm just a looney conspiracy theorist. Bush would never practice cronyism, would he?
And the following gives me a lot of confidence in him...
During his tenure he also served as Chairman of the Committee on Homeland Security; Chairman of the Select Committee on U.S. National Security; Chairman of the Select Committee on Homeland Security (the predecessor to the permanent House Committee);
Simply because someone is not registered with the SEC does not mean they are not subject to the rules and regulations laid down by the SEC. If you trade an SEC regulated contract or stock, then you must obey the rules. All exchanges are regulated by the SEC. There are some over the counter, (under the counter is a better description), derivitives that can be traded without SEC regulations. However there is no listing of these derivitives and one cannot move any market by trading them. All other trades are monitored and controlled by the SEC.
I am going to bed now but will reply to any objections tomorrow.
Ron Patterson
I don't think we're in disagreement but in my previous post I justed wanted to point out that hedge funds are not required to register with the SEC and that this means they are subject to very few regulatory controls. I was more or less quoting directly from the SEC's own web site (http://www.sec.gov/answers/hedge.htm):
There seems to be a subtle distinction, which I admit I don't fully understand, between "hedge funds" and "hedge fund managers" or "hedge fund advisors." However, according to the SEC web site, neither hedge funds nor hedge fund managers/advisors are required to register with the SEC.
I also pointed out that hedge funds must still obey criminal laws, including fraud, misstatement of returns, stealing from customers, etc. I believe this is what you are driving at when you say they are subject to the rules and regulations laid down by the SEC. Indeed, the SEC has prosecuted hedge fund managers for criminal behavior. Quoting again from the SEC web site:
But if you are implying that because hedge funds must follow the rules that they are the same as, for example, mutual funds, that is not correct. The differences are primarily, but not exclusively, in the levels of disclosure required from registered investment vehicles versus hedge funds. Here is what the SEC web site has to say:
The most interesting discussion of this is actually from the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals case (Goldstein v. SEC - PDF file). They point out that even the definition of a hedge fund is notoriously difficult to pin down:
The Goldstein v. SEC case writeup goes on and on about what constitutes a hedge fund. If you're interested and have the time, it's a good read.
Sorry about writing such a long post for such a narrow topic.
Though the FinancialSense.com folks don't seem to think Amaranth is too worrisome. Something about them not being as highly leveraged as LTCM.
Do you know where it is? I printed out the article and lost it, but started reading it and got one page in. I have been looking for it but can't find it. Can anyone tell me where this article is? I really want to read how they are justifying LTCM as worse, although the nominal value are different. What is a 4 Billion loss in 1996 today?
Going to http://minneapolisfed.org/Research/data/us/calc/
I get it's =$5162523900.57, so this would be about equal or slightly worse. This is purely based on nominal value, but I understand LTCM was leveraged much higher and didnt have the ability to meet margin calls, whereas there is $3B left of Amaranth. Also Amaranth was big into future spreads which actually spreads the financial waves throughout the system. Don't forget in options someone wins at the others expense!
I think you are on very solid ground in suggesting that the proliferation of non-transparent hedge funds and derivatives contracts introcduces a level of risk into the financial system that is difficult to measure.
However, in saying there
will bea massive crash as a result is wandering off into the land of surmise and speculation. Didn't they teach you about probability and forecasting in thise finance courses?IMHO there is some major arm twisting going on to lower gas prices for the election. It just makes sense- there is no other obvious reason that I see.
When thing are muddy looking "follow the yellow brick road"...(money)....
Or maybe the fact that we are coming off Summer Drive Time Season, and the demand for gasoline is waning, certainly that wouldn't have ANYTHING to do with lower prices.
Or perhaps the fact that at this point in time, the fires around the world like Lebanon have quieted down so the risk premium on oil has dropped a bit.
No... I think you are right. Those sooper sekret shadow government people are manipulating the market to keep Republicans in office. No possible chance that maybe just maybe natural market forces and seasonal swings could be responsible for lower gas prices, pretty much like they've done for most seasons before this one. Or gasps could it be that maybe the Republicans are doing something right and transitioning us off a interest rate fueled economy to see if maybe the economy could chug along on its own.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not a fan of the Republicans lately, due to a number of reasons including lack of fiscal responsibility, immigration, and their handling of the War in Iraq, but the sheer blind hatred and demonization on these forums is almost made for TV comedy.
I think people give too much credit to the amount of power these politicians wield. To accomplish some of the things mentioned in this thread, Republicans would not only have to be doing all this, secretly and keeping it from the Democrats(who have their own resources for keeping tabs on things) who could expose this information for gain for themselves, but the Replublicans would also have to count on cooperation from a myriad of national corporations, and interests, as well as foreign governments, interests and corporations. The problem with conspiracy theories, is that in order to pull them off you have to tell a whole hell of a lot of people, and then count on all those whole hell of a lot of people to not say anything.
Now given human nature, what are the chances that out of dozens, probably hundreds involved to accomplish this that not a single one doesn't get drunk and say something they shouldn't. Or that one of the individuals who were trusted now decides the time is right to make a move to further themselves. Or even that an aid to one of these people picks up on something they shouldn't have and reports it.
Sorry but the probability of this all being a conspiracy is in my opinion slim to none. Too much control is needed, control which I just don't think is feasible to attain by any one faction of power. In order to accomplish this, multiple factions of power would have to all be working together with FULL TRUST in each other(something fairly rare in politics), which means most likely the Democrats would be in bed with the Republicans, which means they would be going in KNOWING that they will lose the elections this year, and frankly if that is the case, then why the hell are people stumping for the Democrats.
Sorry but there is a reason why conspiracy theorists on this scale are called crackpots. They have no appreciation of the amount of social and game theory mechanics which would need to be manipulated in order to come out with a winning scenario on this scale.
That's because that is a chart for oil to be delivered in a specific month - maybe October. Contracts exist for every month. Back in January, the October contract existed but not many people were trading in it. As the year went by and October approached, it gradually acquired more interest. Then in the past month, with October the nearest month for which contract trading is possible, trading volume is heavy. That's all you're seeing in that chart.
Bush and co. blowing hot and cold on Iran : he had a lot of people convinced that military action was coming soon. One way or another, it was almost certainly related to the US electoral timetable. If manipulation of the oil price was the chosen mechanism, it has succeeded masterfully. May would have been way too soon to talk down the oil price.
Now I get to thinking : what about that war in Lebanon? The Bushistas push the rather naive, militarily inexperienced Israeli government into a foolish war. Which pushed up the oil price still further, but was never going to last very long...
The higher the gas price, the bigger the electoral bounce when it comes back down. Smells like vintage Rove.
Now that ought to stir up a hornets nest! But it's true nonetheless.
Ron, my comments are mainly on the price of gasoline. The primary factor, although not the only factor, that affects the price of gasoline is supply/demand. We do not add up production costs, tack on a profit, and come to a price. We watch the price, our competitor's prices, and our inventories. If our inventories are falling and we can't keep up with our production, we raise prices. If our competitors are in the same boat, prices rise across the board. If not, some of our customers go over to the competitors, which draws their inventories down and allows ours to recover. Or, we keep our prices steady and run out of product, or start allocating to our customers.
In summary, we don't look to the NYMEX at all when making day to day pricing decisions. We do use it as a predictor of what prices will do, because what happens on the NYMEX will usually show up on the street, after a time delay. But if gasoline on the NYMEX, today, spiked up by $1/gal, and then back down by $1/gal in a couple of days, it probably wouldn't affect our pricing decisions at all.
With a promise of steady supply and prices, the Feds basically let big oil run the show and it worked well enough until US peak and the unavoidable importance of foreign oil. Volatility reentered the oil system in 70's and 80's and now once again today. Oil is now an essential commodity controlled by a few large actors who can at times work together or not. The old Big Oil companies have lost much of their power and are on the way to being valued purely as distribution companies.
The recent volatility has been a mixture of supply and demand, market manipulation by large actors, and arbitrage -- the present structure of oil trading makes it particularly attractive to arbitrage. So, its a mixture of things that sets the price of oil today, but the one thing it's not is the mythical markets of your Econ 101 class.
Volume of futures trading, in a sense irrelevant for trying to gauge impact on cash price oil as roll-overs are responsible for the bulk of volumes. Hence by far more important to look at open interest, currently 1.21m contracts, and in particular the changes. So a decline of say 100k in open interest, one can assess as having a selling impact similar to slightly more than one day in oil supply.
Galileo