153 comments on DrumBeat: September 23, 2006
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153 comments on DrumBeat: September 23, 2006
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But if you look at the way it was announced at the time, all North Sea concerns were over.
"The Jack discovery on Walker Ridge block 759 was drilled in 2004. The discovery well encountered more than 350 net feet of pay. The Jack #2 well was drilled to delineate the discovery. (...) Four Lower Tertiary Discoveries
Jack is one of four discoveries by Devon in the lower Tertiary trend of the deepwater Gulf of Mexico. The others are St. Malo drilled in 2003, Cascade drilled in 2002 and the 2006 Kaskida discovery." http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=109&STORY=/www/story/09-05-2006/0004426162& ;EDATE=
Jack2 will be followed by another production test next year. The Jack2 production test took place in the spring of this year.
"The test was conducted during the second quarter of 2006 and was designed to evaluate a portion of the total pay interval. During the test, the well sustained a flow rate of more that 6,000 barrels of crude oil per day with the test representing approximately 40 percent of the total net pay measured in the Jack #2 well. Chevron and its co-owners plan to drill an additional appraisal well in 2007." http://www.chevron.com/news/press/2006/2006-09-05.asp
Note that the test results were announced after the Labour Day long-weekend. One might speculate that the delay in the announcement may have been because of bureaucratic inefficiency.
Chevron-Texaco's geologists have been speculating on a possible 3 to 15 billion barrel recovery from the Lower Tertiary Wilcox trend in the deep waters of the Gulf of M. since at least the spring of 2005. The nine discoveries to date offer potential recoveries from 30 to 400 million barrels of oil each. Chevron's geologists had this to say in 2005:
"Key technical challenges for trend commerciality are: 1) reservoir quality and flow capability; 2) drilling and completion technology; and 3) development of infrastructure. Continued discoveries in the trend and successful flow tests planned in early 2006 could very well transform the Lower Tertiary Wilcox into a world-class petroleum system in the deepwater GoM." http://www.worldoil.com/magazine/MAGAZINE_DETAIL.asp?ART_ID=2596&MONTH_YEAR=May-2005
The Jack2 production test last spring was one in series of events in a long term process, which began in the 1990's, to determine the amount of recoverable oil in the deepwater GoM and the technical feasibility of recovering oil in the conditions present there.
An additional concern affecting the feasability of transforming the Tertiary into a "world-class" petroleum system relates to Hurricane activity.
Why did the media turn a minor springtime step in a long march, that may be leading nowhere, into a major September event and evidence of the wrongness of the Peak Oil 'theory'?
Disclosure: The millions Chevron-Texaco gives to Republicans and a few oil industry friendly Democrats exceeds even Exxon-Mobil's 'generosity' in Washington. http://www.sunlightfoundation.com/taxonomy/term/219
Is there anyone out there who knows the normal time between production test and announcement of same?
I recognize that I'm suggesting that the timing of the announcement was delayed in order to maximixe the political impact. This may not have been the case. Either way, the facts of the so-called 'discovery' this year belie the claimed significance of the find.
A real problem lies with lazy journalism and concentration of media ownership.
Most Americans are totally unaware of the enormous scale of deepwater 'desperation exploration' ongoing throughout the world.
http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=36156
Did the conversions: 2,400 meters of seawater = 7,874 feet, 7200 meters of drill depth = 23,622 ft or 4.47 miles. The hopeful potential of 6-8 billion barrels is approx 1/2 of the optimistic potential of the 15 billion barrels of Jack. Ideal working conditions in the GoM vs the cold, wet weather off Newfoundland. My guess is that if icebergs come down this far: tugboats will have to lasso them, then drag them away to prevent a berg from hitting any platforms.
Consider the Hibernia platform:
---------------------------
The Hibernia platform is located off Canada's east coast, on the Grand Banks of Newfoundland. Hibernia is recognized as one of the most significant artic offshore developments. It serves as a study in oil exploration and production under extreme conditions. Hibernia is the only platform in the world designed to withstand the direct impact from an iceberg.
-----------------------
Famous last words? Consider this really close call:
-----------------------
But one day in the 1980s, a complacent observer on a now-defunct floating rig somehow let an iceberg get to within five or six miles of the rig. Typically, bergs move at a clip of about one knot.
There was a mad scramble, Baker says. The weather was too rough to tow the iceberg. Three of the deckhands on one boat and two on another were washed around the deck and got hurt. The only option left was to try to pull the rig's eight massive anchors up and move the rig out of danger. But one of the anchor chains on the rig got tangled; there was no question of breaking free. It was far too late to deploy helicopters or use rig-to-ship baskets to evacuate the crew on the rig.
The guys on the rig were watching to see which way the berg was going, Baker says. At the last minute, the supply boats managed to pull the rig 100 meters sideways. The berg came straight over the wellhead where the rig had just been. That was the closest call. In times like those, says Baker, your heart rate starts going up and you hit maximum blood pressure. There are so many things that can go wrong.
---------------------------------
Consider the ERoEI of this Hibernia project with cool photos: PDF warning.
If the MSM actually reported on the many deepwater efforts it would scare the people. Most sheeple act & think like all that is required is to just poke a hole in the ground safely onshore with a dinky rig and then petroleum products ready to use come gushing out of the ground.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
http://www.corrosionsource.com/CS2000/session04/paper0402/paper0402.htm
But basically, money cures all problems. If you have enough money, then you can do most anything until the value of the resource falls to: at, near or below the value of the money you wish to invest / risk.
I understand that Thunderhorse is subject to some corrosion problems as we speak.
Deep sea (High pressure solubility) corrosion should not really come as a surprise. The Titanic and the Bismark are disolving, the passengers and crew that made it to the bottom have already disolved. Ceramics do quite well though.
As with all things, Thunderhorse, Jack, etc. They are affected by the theory of diminishing returns. Some call it a law. Once you get beyond peak, you spend more and more money* chasing less and less value. It doesnt have to be oil. It could be a copper or gold mine; it could be the North Atlantic Sperm Whale population, it could be the Cod population in the North Sea or Grand Banks.
*Money is just another way of representing energy.