I strongly disagree. The dense urban form, even with all of the inputs and outputs you mention, is by far the most efficient form of modern living from a resource, transportation, energy, water, land and carbon output perspective. You can argue that we should all go back to in time to when most of the population lived on farms, but that's not really on the table unless you have a dictator like Pol Pot forcing people back out into the fields.

Please tell us what your alternative is.

Oh, but it's not a suggestion that we should go back and live on the farm, it will be the reality of the situation at some point in the post-peak world.  NYC is only sustainable in an energy-soaked world.  The very concept that any major urban environment is ultimately sustainable at anything approaching the levels we see today without the massive energy inputs we currently enjoy - well, good luck with that is all I can say.
If there is no food in the grocery stores, nobody will have to be forced out of the city into the country, they'll be headed that way quite on their own.  Where I'm sure they'll be greeted warmly by their country cousins.  Or not...

and there probably is no alternative.

If there is no food in the grocery stores, nobody will have to be forced out of the city into the country, they'll be headed that way quite on their own.  Where I'm sure they'll be greeted warmly by their country cousins.

You are quite right about the first part about what they will do without food on the shelves, but I'm not sure about the warm greetings... :)

I'm not a doomer though. I don't think it will be so dramatic as you see it. I see things happening a lot slower and more insidiously - slowly sapping our national economy and leading to a fall in the average standard of living. This is something very preventable with the right policies pursued at all levels of government and in the business sector.

By framing this issue in a such divisive manner (the proverbial "pol pot" debate stopper is not a valid argument rather a call to negative emotion) you close off discussion of possible solutions.

Yes the dense urban form is more efficient than the maniacally wasteful suburban paradigm. However these are not the only "modern living" alternatives, in spite of their familiarity (especially for one with a NYC parochrial bias) Small towns on waterways, larges town on larges lakes, small cities on seacoasts,  large cities on large rivers, are all more sustainable variations if they are ringed with closed-loop local agriculture and industrial systems.

Given our lack of imagination and political will, and our corrupt financial system I don't see necessary changes occuring in time for PO decline. It would take monumental government resources and probably some type of central planning to reverse our titanic now.

There is nothing extraordinary the major or NYC residents can do to change consumption patterns that folks in anywhere in the country can not. Every American should seal up and insulate their windows, change their  lightbulbs, walk to the farmers market (if you can afford it) etc. etc.

The City already has an envious mass transit system because  it did it's job 100 years ago. We don't need Bloomberg to remind us of this. We need Bush to do so, and then the American people and the US government to make electrification of transport a priority.

I'm sorry, you started with:

this is a joke. this is a mockery. this is self-serving puffery.

so, who started the divisive comments?

I was applauding a step in the right direction - you just made fun of it without offering up your own vision.

Now, small towns near lakes, rivers and on seacoasts could be great if they can wean themselves of automobiles and truly relocalize (which seems a little far off right now). A detached house, a personal automobile in the driveway big  box stores and single use zoning is more indicative of small town America than multi-unit housing, walkable mixed use downtown areas.

But right now we have a model that is already more efficient and still has a lot that it can do to become more efficient: Highly dense urban centers.

And considering we have 300 million people, we are going to need large cities - indeed, I think we will see greater density and urbanization in the future instead of sprawl or small self-sufficient regional communities.

Peak Guy I'm sorry how I responded intially, but I have this gut reaction to insincere greenwashing.

It feels as if it were an election year campaign to drag greens over to the establishment. NYC is 1 million educated well-intentioned inner-core achievers surrounded by 7 million struggling lower-middle class citizens who can at best invest in a few fluorescent or halogen light bulbs. NYC is also the other 20 million suburbanites who take culture from the core and return a little in business and sales taxes. How will Bloomberg's proposal make a differene to those 27 million?

pete

That's ok. I'm highly aware of the "greenwashing" that goes on and that's why I wanted to highlight Bloomberg because at long last, he really seems to have actually implemented a good deal of environmentally friendly legislation and administrative goals and has some big plans in the works for his last three years in office.

How do 1 million people in the middle of the city make a difference to the 27 million others?

All the million in the center need to do is exercise their consumer might (collectively through the city's regulatory policies) and create new markets that spur competition over sustainable goods and services. And reclaim their highways, streets and neighborhoods from traffic coming from the other 27 million.

You want our consumer dollars? Earn it by following our regulations on good environmental practices. If you don't want to follow our regulations, then go find work somewhere else. 10 others are waiting in your place.

You want access to our high paying jobs, our cultural institutions, our unique shops? Then please don't drive here - but if you do, be prepared to pay through the nose for congestion pricing or you will squander hours in traffic.

You want a good paying blue collar jobs with union benefits? Join the transit workers, become a park ranger, help construct new green buildings,

Are you on a limited budget in the city? Stop wasting energy, sell the car, support denser mixed use neighborhood zoning.

I am reminded that there were large cities before oil was discovered.

Large in the low millions though (without checking, largest city in the world in 1890-- London?  perhaps 4 million people).  And with very messy coal, hence the nickname 'the Smoke'.

The sort of Mexico Cities of the world now seem unimaginable without cheap transport.  But you could argue they use relatively little oil.

It's actually the suburbs of New York which must be the really energy intensive bit-- spread out from hither to yon in large houses.  New York's population isn't, I don't imagine, higher than it was in 1930-- it's just its geographic area is several times as large (counting the commuter belt).

Perhaps a greater threat is a more prosaic one.  I saw a projection of the scale of storms NYC might face by mid century (I'm not talking Al Gore's global melting slides, just extrapolations from rising surface temperatures).

The gist of the article was that lower Manhattan, Staten Island, Brooklyn would likely face very major floodings on a regular basis.  And a flood of lower Manhattan, for example, could do $50bn of damage.

The article was about whether to build storm barriers, like our Thames tidal barriers, across the East River and the Hudson. (the Thames Barrier closes when the water surges--

http://www.esemag.com/0998/barrier.html )

  The problem being that this would be expensive ($20bn or so I think was the number) and it would be an admission that some parts of the City could just not be protected.  Which makes it politically almost infeasible.

Please tell us what your alternative is

The Lower Garden District of New Orleans.  Mid-rise construction (2 to 4 with occasional 1 story construction), narrow one-way streets with parking on both sides (St. Andrew is 28' wide, some are 24' wide).

My side of the street has (corner) 4 apartments, 6 apartments, 8 apartments, (corner) 4 apartments.  SFRs around the corner.  

Other side of street (before entire block burned down in Katrina) was (corner) 11 apartments, 7 apartments, SFR, 8 apartments.  My block is a bit higher density than most of the Lower Garden.  Perhaps 1/3rd are SFR or duplexes.

Narrow streets save space for people, allow higher density and shorten walking distances.

I am 2.5 blocks from the St. Charles streetcar.  I can buy food in 5 places within 6 blocks (including Walmart), my tailor is within 4 blocks, as was my insurance agent.  Banks within 3 blocks, also dry cleaners.  More people walking by late at night than Manhatten, I know my neighbors.

Greenery abounds, we have a very nice Coliseum Square Park within 4 blocks.  Public tennis & basketball courts (once the FEMA trailers move) 5 blocks away.

Two world class restaurants within walking distance and dozens on the streetcar line.  Many just very good places to eat as well :-)  And bars abound !!

5 miles of unique shops on Magazine Street, just 2 blocks away.

The tallest building in town (One Shell Square, 51 stories) is in between the streetcar tracks and 1 mile away.  The French Quarter is 1.25 miles away as is the Superdome.

More here:

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1026/is_4_159/ai_73410729

I would argue that our model is a more livable and enjoyable than NYC and from a

most efficient form of modern living from a resource, transportation, energy, water, land and carbon output perspective

perspective we are better as well.

No elevators for example :-)

Best Hopes & Respectfully,

Alan

I agree Manhattan is not for everyone (I like it for my needs now, but later with a family I may move to the outerboroughs or NJ, I don't know), but don't forget the outerboroughs. Manhattan is really a convenient central location for 25 million people in the region to work, play and shop that is slowly filling in more residents over the current 1.5 million, most of which are in the northern half.

Please bear in mind that most of NYC's population is in Brooklyn (3m) and Queens (2m) (not Manhattan) which sounds closer to your description of 3-6 story density and neighborhood shops. It would be great to get more trolleys at streetlevel in Brooklyn and Queens.

It would be interesting to do a direct comparison of the land use/energy/water/carbon output per person. It's good that there is so much available within walking distance, but how many drive their car for commuting, grocery shopping, etc. Brooklyn and Queens are still very energy efficient by any standard, but they do have much higher rates of car ownership.

In one of the many Urban Planning meetings post-Katrina the "out-of-town experts" quoted an interesting statistic.

New Orleans and New York were in a statistical tie for fewest miles driven by residents/capita (excluding suburbanites driving inside both of our cities).  

We have/had post-WW II suburbs in New Orleans East, Lakeview and south Algiers, with quite high rates of driving.  I use 6 gallons/month in Lower Garden.  Lower Garden District may have had the lowest rate of driving for the reasons noted.  That is, we are the "Manhatten" of car use.  The Warehouse District, French Quarter (Lindsey Boggs* lives on Bourbon Street, quite a lady at 90 !), Marigny, Treme and Garden District also have quite low rates of car use.  Perhaps 10% to 15% of the population lived in those areas.

And half the population (guess) lived in higher but still moderate levels of auto use; Uptown, Central City, Mid-City, Gentilly, Broadmoor, Algiers.

My point is that 1-3 (rare 4) story levels of construction with large amounts of trees & green & parks (Garden District) is a quite acceptable alternative for low energy et al use IF done properly, as it was in 1830's New Orleans.  Narrow streets are one of several keys IMHO.

Someone asked for an alternative.  I gave one, a better one IMO :-)

Best Hopes,

Alan

You certainly added nicely to the discussion - narrow streets hmm...