335 comments on DrumBeat: September 30, 2006
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335 comments on DrumBeat: September 30, 2006
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Joules, thanks for posting this link. This puts the lie to people who claim that we are not in overshoot and all we have to do is consume less oil and everything will be okay. No, we are deep into overshoot but still having more babies but are at the same time reducing the world's carrying capacity.
I think that hinges on the Indian situation being typical, world-wide. "We" might be in overshoot if "we" are all in the same boat as those Indians, on water, etc.
Any posters from the Canadian Northeast here today, what's your perspective?
No, I think if we had lots of oil, water would not be that big a problem. We could simply build a lot of desalination plants.
Given enough energy, we can solve just about any problem. But when it's energy that is the problem...it's bend over and pass the Vaseline time. (Oops...Vaseline's made of petroleum.)
Why not - the fusion future.
=========It's all about population!
Leanan, this might be true in theory, but it is really ridiculous to propose that we could desalinate enough water to replace the water currently used around the world for irrigation. We would need thousands of desal plants. The Yellow river is used, almost entirely for irrigation and for most of the year it never reaches the sea. Imagine building enough desal plants to replace the water in theYellow River. Or the Colorado River, all the hundreds of rivers and aquifers around the world that are going dry because too much water is being pumped out.
The Soviets diverted the rivers feeding the Aral Sea to grow cotton. Now the Aral Sea is almost dry. Do you suppose that if we had enough oil we could just build enough desal plants and fill it up again? And the same for Lake Chad and all the other lakes and rivers of the world that are drying up because of massive irrigation.
I haven't done the math but I would bet that if we wished to replace all the world's irrigation water with desalinated water, we would need at least one hundred times as much oil as we have now. And imagine what that would do to global warming, burning one hundred times the oil we do now.
Ron Patterson
Try desalinating the Dust Bowl. That should make it clear enough.
Unlimited energy can theoretically solve almost all problems. But one remains: the very use of that energy, and the pollution -or waste- it produces. That could only be solved by using more energy, which would lead to more waste, which could only be solved by using more energy, which... (copy and paste).
Unlimited energy (when used) equals unlimited waste.
River diversion, that very term brings up China. The most megalomanic project in the history of mankind is underway as we speak, digging 1000's of miles of canals and tunnels to divert water from the relatively wet south to the very dry and desertifying north.
Mao started talking about it 50 years ago, and it will take another 50 to complete.
One problem that is not part of the planning process: melting glaciers. By the time the project is finished, 50 years from now, there will be hardly any water left, the southern rivers are fed by the Himalaya's.
It'll be a fitting end for Peak Stupidity.
In a word...yes.
I'm not saying it would be desirable, mind.
Do the math Leanan you might have some surprises.
In other words, though your statement "Given enough energy, we can solve just about any problem" holds in principle, there are HUGE AMOUNTS of "energy equivalent" consumption in many, many natural ressources we squander mindlessly.
Releasing water on the ground to artifically produce wetlands for waterfowl.
Quit draining wetlands for humans to have more sprawl space and pretend they are living the rural lifestyle.
Stop irrigating crop land when normal rainfall is insufficient and live on what we can actually produce, even though this means a lot of the rest of the world must learn to better shepherd their resources as well, in other words quit trying to be the worlds saviour and just live with what we got.
Turn off the 'green revolution'.
Stop washing streets, let the residents sweep them off.
Ice hockey? Forget it.
Swimming pools in everymans backyard? Ignorant.
Sprinkling desert land in Arizona to grow grass? Fools.
Huge water fountains in Vegas? Screw the gamblers. Let them eat dust.
The list can go on and on and on. Just as long as human stupidity can go on and on and on. Live within the parameters or die off. Thats what it is coming down to.
Why does India need all that water? Could all our ignorant offshoring of our once domestic jobs have anything to do with it?
Two years ago this would have been utter nonsense. Today I submit it makes sense. You can't legislate people's lifestyle so nature is going to do take over that job for us.
I strongly disagree on the basis that local conditions are so different. Continents are separated by big swathes of water called oceans which have a tendancy to keep eco-systems, people, cultures, resources apart. I cannot even believe I am debating this.
Sure if you fully understand controll theory as applied to climate/geology and know your boundaries and 879,057,423 variables then yes you could treat earth as one boat.
Marco.
Marco
I've read that the Great Lakes are already approaching their lowest levels since measurements began. And anytime I've gone fishing with my dad we have to take a guide with us to determine if the fish we catch are safe to eat or have too much mercury for human consumption.
So even here, in a province with something like a half million freshwater lakes, it's not like the place is untouched either.
I just worry if a water trade is seriously developed with the US, because as I understand it according to Article 6 of NAFTA it would then become a trading commodity that we could not legally unilaterally stop selling you. Sort of like the situation we're in where we have to sell you our natural gas.
In any case, even with all this water, is the world supposed to all move to Canada???
The generalization builds the fear ... but does it build the action?
BTW, I'll take my shower this morning with a low flow head, I sure hope everyone mad at me here is doing the same:
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2005/10/eco-showerhead.php
No, I know what you're saying, but if the question is potable fresh water, then certainly contamination factors into the equation as well. There's plenty of fresh water in standing pools around the tar sands too, but I sure as hell wouldn't drink it!
I am now visualizing millions of people addicted to the gratification of sticking lowflow heads up their asses. Please don't do that.
Electricity for that gentleman to run his water pump, and for industrial ag. in general, comes from coal-fired power plants. And where do those fishes get their mercury contamination? The steady rain, planet-wide, of mercury from those same power plants.
I noticed yesterday, in the news, that India's economy is growing at an astounding rate.
Separating 'challenges' into many discrete parts may lead to an overwhelming seeming number of challenges facing us - no? We all see the world differently, but for me, it's pretty simple that we're over-consuming, over-populating, and lack humility.
Scaling back (aka powerdown, simplification, whatever) will solve many problems simultaneously. Many tech fixes of individual problems just cause two more problems somewhere else.
Go Humans!!
I mean, would Cuba have the same post-oil message if it were exactly the same as India?
Actually, does anyone know what fraction of the population relies on non-replenished water sources?
One hundred times the replacement rate! And that is right here in the United States of America. As I said Odograph, you simply do not get the message. The whole damn world has a very serious water problem.
Ron Patterson
Otherwise, the resource would be gone immediately.
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1310/is_1985_Jan/ai_3581835
I think the Ogalalla is a fossil aquifer so it is not replenishing. Once that water is gone, it's gone. But many of the replenishable aquifers world-wide are being depleted faster than they can replenish, hence declining water tables, deeper wells, etc. And I wonder, when Odograph says we are not in the same boat as India, how he defines the boat. True, we in the U.S. don't currently face the same water issues as India, but we're not too far off. And we here in the Northeast don't face the same water issues as LA and San Diego. So, are we in the same boat in the U.S., the western hemisphere, or the world? Odograph needs to read Lester Brown's Outgrowing the Earth or Plan B 2.0 to see how far-reaching our water issues are before deciding who is in what boat.
Kinda leaves me wondering why people say I'll never get it and etc.
I've even acknowledged that if much of our use is coming from such fossil sources we are in big trouble.
"The Ogallala fossil water aquifer in the Central Plains is being depleted by agricultural and urban extraction, with no effective recharge"
pg 17, (pdf warning) Water, Energy and Security, EESI Congressional Briefing, U.S. Department of Energy
Sorry to be pedantic on this fine Saturday.
But there I going being pedantic again .... I must chastise myself some more!
(we actually do have a lot of agreement here)
http://www.bookrags.com/research/aquifer-depletion-enve-01/
Darn it, must stop ...
Conserving the Ogallala Aquifer
Nebraska Sandhills conceal massive aquifer
"I think the Ogalalla is a fossil aquifer so it is not replenishing. "
I read somewhere that some places where the aquifer has been pumped to exhaution, the ground level actually dropped(compressed) measureable amounts(was it vegas?). Once the ground water was pumped out, the spaces collapsed/compressed and the article said it was not reversible.
No, the Ogallala aquifier is quite shallow and does replenish, though not nearley as fast as irrigation water is being pumped from it. As the article points out, some of the water dates back to the last ice age. Yet it does replenish. But you are quite correct, when it is pumped dry, all the crops irrigated from it will be no more. But that is the case all over the world. That is called overshoot.
Ron Patterson
It is truly amazing the places we indulge denial.
=======It's all about population!
Odograph, it is way, way past the time that you, and others with similar cornucopian opinions, should wake up and smell the coffee. Water tables are dropping all over the world. You must live a sheltered life and never read a newspaper or watch the news to believe that there is not a worldwide water problem. And to imply that because the Canadian Northeast does not have the same problem that the vast majority of the rest of the world has, is just dumb, dumb, dumb!
Our assistance And just what the hell do you propose that we do. Ship water to India? Then we could ship water to Bangladesh, and China, and Pakistan, and the rest of the world where the vast majority of the world's people live. Get real, the problem is too damn many people trying to draw far too much water from the world's rivers and underground water supply. There is not one damn thing we can do except watch them die.
Funny you should mention Cuba. That just shows how far out of touch you are with reality. Cuba is now having a drastic food shortage and a critical water shortage. That link is from this month. And this one goes back two years. The water and food shortage in Cuba goes back many years.
And as for the worldwide problem, I could post several thousand links going back for a couple of decades. The deserts are expanding all over the world, rivers and lakes are drying up and everywhere in the world, even in the United States, water tables are dropping, usually several meters per year.
And you think this is only a problem for India? Where on earth have you been for the last thirty years?
WE, the whole damn world, are deep into overshoot. Only a man who is totally out of touch with reality could possibly deny that.
Ron Patterson
Worldwide water shortage
Water Shortage Will Leave World in Dire Straits
Global Water Shortage Looms In New Century
And I could post thousands more explaining that the whole damn world is suffering from a water shortage.
Look, as I said I do get the problem with using fossil water sources. I understand that if someone drills down to ancient rainfall, and it is not being replenished by current rain or snowfall, it is a finite resource, just like oil Very much like oil.
So sure, around the world, well fileds will deplete.
The big question is what fraction of world water demand is being met by fossil water. If that number is known, and it is big, I'll have to concede.
At this point in time, I would say that greed is a greater problem than population as it creates and continues the inequities leading to population growth. And since greed at bottom is immoral and the USE is the greed leader, it is ever more the leader in immorality, even without its wars.
Marco.
In times of drought, elephants and other species trek 100's of miles from the Serengeti and Great Rift Valley towards the "wet" land beneath the mountain, their final option.
The snow peak is not the only tourist attraction that will soon be gone. The animals will have no place left to go.
Also, Africa these days is full of stories of lakes that are drying up at record pace. This doesn't just affect drinking water, it cuts of electricity to scores of people as well.
Now we might presume that since there is a water cycle, what goes missing in one place, will end up somewhere else. But that is not entirely correct. Why?
Ask yourself what makes the sea levels rise.
Stable glaciers obviously were not providing water, though they play an important role in regulating the flow of snow melt. New ways will have to be found and/or implemented to capture irregular fresh water flows. Not many grey cells will be consumed in this process.
Even with the stress of 6 - 9 billion people, the stress of climate change and the stress of emerging problems like adaptive germs, our fundamental problems are mental. The solutions are an exercise of the divine gift of self-reflective consciousness.
His "challenges" only amount to denial, blatant lies and weaseling, plus a lot of plain noise like pancakes and sausage.
Did you read the link I already made above?
Where he PRETENDS that I have argued :
We're all gonna die, because a can of soda needs 3.6 cents worth of aluminum!!!
Where I fact I said the OPPOSITE, that the cost of aluminium does not matter for soda cans because it is negligible.
Could you substanciate this claim of yours that he is "open to change his views", he is NOT!
Hopefully you can too :)
Because they are so dire I would LOVE to change my views but I am not buying snake oil, propaganda or any other bullshit.
You like to present yourself as someone connected to science, but reaching conclusions and preaching doom without evidence belies this self-presentation.
Food Shortage Worsens In Cuba
Although the above article is two years old, there has of late been an increase into food imports to Cuba, much of it from the United States. 37 States Now Exporting Food To Cuba; $57 Million In Poultry Alone
This has somewhat lessened Cuba's dire food shortage of two years ago but it still exist.
Ron Patterson who believes Darwin got it right. That alone makes me a Darwinian.
I guess that's the Saturday morning consensus at TOD anyway - a cornucopian is someone who does not belive we in overshoot and hanging before an inevitable collapse.
BTW, oh yeah, all us Cornucopians drive Priuses. We were shoulder to shoulder down at the Toyota dealer.
:-) :-) :-)You are not asked to "believe" just to make a PROPER counter argument, which part of the word FI-NI-TE don't you understand?
Or is it the word subtracting?
You seem to think that since we use "stuff" we will use up (a) use up the small resources and (b) not find a way to exploit the large ones.
Is that proven? I don't think so. I think actually that you don't even want to try. That's why you always talk about things being "finite" and them suffering from "subraction" and stop there.
Dealing with our actual roster of resources, their rates of recycling and depletion, and available (and more plentiful) replacements is too complicated.
I don't blame you. It is too complicated. Of course once we grasp that we might have to abandon preordained outcomes.
If we are honest.
* - with a small mass exchange in and out of the atmosphere
Yeah! this passes your poor powers of comprehension, well, it's only a disability of yours.
You seem to think that since we use "stuff" we will use up (a) use up the small resources and (b) not find a way to exploit the large ones.
What this messed up statement is supposed to mean?
- That we will use "small resources" before "large ones", i.e. NOT picking the low hanging fruit first?
- That we can replace ANY exhausted small ressource by some large one, oil by seawater, Eh?
- That we can replace small used up high value ressources by low value ones, like using aluminium silicates instead of bauxite?
- Or do you mean NOTHING in particular, just your usual blather?
Is that proven? I don't think so. I think actually that you don't even want to try. That's why you always talk about things being "finite" and them suffering from "subraction" and stop there.Subtracting from a finite quantity has a pretty obvious result, if you know better YOU have to do the "math", YOU "have to try", show us your "good model" to sustain your belief.
Dealing with our actual roster of resources, their rates of recycling and depletion, and available (and more plentiful) replacements is too complicated.
It is "too complicated" ONLY if you try to compute it bottom up, trying to sum up a whole "roster of resources" to find a grand total.
It IS NOT TOO COMPLICATED if you do it TOP DOWN : any squandered bit of ressource is lost for good once and for all.
As for recycling I already delt with that but you did not answer this :
Since the very moment recycling would have entirely substituted for new mining for reason of unaffordable ROI of mining (hopefully assuming the ROI of recycling will not be so dire as to prevent reuse of the recycled materials for the same purposes as the genuine source), then the total available amount of this ressource WILL NOT GROW anymore! It will even slowly decrease because there will be losses in the recycling.
If we are honest.
YOU ARE NOT HONEST, this is the whole point.
"any squandered bit of ressource is lost for good once and for all"
To me things like photosynthesis give lie to that. Burn a tree, and it is lost to the atmosphere. Grow a tree and you get it back.
Recycling arguments for metals etc., might be interesting as well ... but they sure are not one-size-fits all arguments. We leave tons of aluminum at the side of the road, while people make good livings bringing up gold from centuries old shipwrecks.
Gosh, if it's all just resources, why didn't they pick up cans?
Or if they were convinced that their recycling was ultimately futile, why didn't they just stay in bed?
BTW, if you DO want to average out past those hard questions of which metals are which, how much do we have, and what do we do with them. If you DO just want to say that x hundred years from now metals will be distributed across the planet in an unrecoverable dust ...
Well, obviously the collapse gurus' message does resonate more strongly with those who are willing to reduce the world to simple elements: "There are people and there are resources. Since people use resources, they will run out."
I SPECIFICALLY made the distinction between FINITE ressources and renewable ones : You don't switch to ALL RENEWABLE ressources.
With your abilities at untruthfulness you would probably make more money at Fucks News than at TOD.
"any squandered bit of ressource is lost for good once and for all"
To me things like photosynthesis give lie to that. Burn a tree, and it is lost to the atmosphere.
A tree is renewable, ain't it?
Therefore not conclusive, see above.
Grow a tree and you get it back.
Except, may be...
You need sun, soil and water.
Make sure the water comes from RENEWABLE source, non fossil, non arctic ice, etc...
Make sure the soil is not DEPLETED of critical minerals and not washed out or blown off by poor management, soil is renewable ONLY at geological time scales (just like oil!) NOT at human time scale, decades or centuries.
We leave tons of aluminum at the side of the road, while people make good livings bringing up gold from centuries old shipwrecks.
The high value of gold makes retrieval worthwhile for gold coins in "centuries old shipwrecks", will it be the same for gold plated electric contacts once they are scattered in garbage dumps among tons of other rubbish?
As you say: they sure are not one-size-fits all arguments.
Gosh, if it's all just resources, why didn't they pick up cans?
Some do in third world countries, the current value ($.036 per can) do not make it worthwhile yet elsewhere.
But you STILL DO NOT ADDRESS the question of the losses in the recycling.
Or if they were convinced that their recycling was ultimately futile, why didn't they just stay in bed?
As per above, westerners do "stay in bed", the "poors" don't but they will also "stay in bed" if instead of whole empty cans they can only find tiny shreds not worth the effort (EROEI below 1).
1. how do you know our metal reqirements that far out?
AT CURRENT POPULATION LEVELS, extrapolations of current needs do not extend the expected availabilities into centuries but rather only DECADES for many of the critical minerals.
How do you know our metal requirements will DROP in a few decades?
2. how do you know the limits of non-metal tech that far out?
It is NOT "that far out", I am not talking ONLY about metals, non-metal tech replacement for most metals are NOT there, still your belief that YET TO BE MADE innovations will show up whenever wished for.
Known non-metal tech are nearly always ENERGY INTENSIVE and need metals in their production facilities.
3. what does that have to do with peak oil in 2006?
I am NOT talking only about metals, you are.
As I mentionned to another sucker :
Oil being currently our principal and most efficient energy source is the most prominent critical ressource of our time.
The only thing I need to know about oil is that it is a finite ressource and this is clearly vindicated by the majority consensus at TOD even if opinions differ about the timings an rates of depletion.
As for metals, mining, refining AND recycling are energy intensive, running short of oil means running short of CHEAP energy, means the ROI on all metals processing is getting WORSE and WORSE.
Peak oil in 2006 is the beginning of trouble EVERYWHERE.
Now, just for my personal venting, what's gonna be your next lie, ya motherfucker?
"This puts the lie to people who claim that we are not in overshoot and all we have to do is consume less oil and everything will be okay."
No it doesn't. Who is using the water? How is it being used? Does the agricultural use of water employ techniques such as drip irrigation? What crops are being grown?
The article does contain this interesting comment and then provides no further information:
"The fear now, among those who study Indian agriculture, is that without a careful review of water policy and a switch to crops that use less water, India stands to imperil its food production."
I sure hope I never find myself in a court with a jury of type of fossilized minds that are dominating this thread today. Facts anybody? Analysis? Oh, why bother with that. The headline is enough to reach a verdict.
India has serious problems. At the top of the list is fatalism, a crippling viewpoint which evidently has many on this list in its grip.
In his oblique way, Frank Zappa used to regularly remind us that necessity is the mother of invention. I was thinking of this recently when re-reading Georgescu-Roegen's "The Entropy Law and the Economic Process". One point that G-R re-iterated was there is a fundamental need for elites to provide "cheap bread", in order to maintain their station and privilege. This is of course why among other reasons agriculture will have access to fossil fuel energy long after wants of lesser import such as motorized individual transport will be sucking on a dry tit.
But despite an ongoing and privileged access to declining oil and gas, rising fuel costs will on the fossil fuel downslope energize the move to sustainable agriculture and sustainable water use, eventually freeing the provision of these biological necessities from dependence on fossilized solar. Herein lies a truly wonderful opportunity presented by Peak Oil to those searching for a productive use of their powers of imagination and creativity and their entrepeneurship and leadership.
For starters Toil, a Darwinian is anyone who accepts the principles of natural selection as described by Darwin, it doesn't matter what your opinions on other subjects are. Darwin did not, to my knowledge, have an opinion on water usage or peak oil. The whole damn world is using the water. To suggest that if India or China would simply use the principles of drip irrigation and then all the water problems would be solved, is just down in the dirt stupid.
Fossilized minds are the kind that simply believe that everyone in the world can simply change their behavior if we simply point out to them the error of their ways. The water tables are dropping. The river is polluted with raw sewage and floating bodies. The children are dying of diarrheal diseases at the rate of many thousands per day. And up steps Toilforoil and says: "Why you dumb asses. Here is all you have to do. Change the types of crops you grow and convert to drip irrigation and all your problems would be solved. It's all your own fault! Na-nana-nana!
Armchair dreamers can come up with thousands of so-called solutions for every problem in the world. However anyone with an ounce of common sense should know that unless a solution can actually be implemented it is not worth a dried up dog turd. But you are going to tell the Indians, and the Chinese, and the Bangladeshis and about three fourths of the world's people to simply change their behavior, change their farming habits, change their irrigation systems and a dozen other things?
The world is not going to change simply because of your plan to save the world Toilforoil. And for God's sake stop calling me a "Self Proclaimed Darwinian. A Darwinian is anyone who believes that normal variation and natural selection is the driving force of evolution. Got that Toilforoil, anyone! I don't believe you know anything about Darwin because I don't believe you have ever read him.
Ron Patterson
Darwinian
1. (sometimes lowercase) pertaining to Charles Darwin or his doctrines.
-noun
2. a follower of Charles Darwin; a person who accepts or advocates Darwinism.
Because your genes don't seem to have imparted the capacity for rational thought doesn't mean I should conclude that the majority of humans are in the same boat.
You might spend some time putting your self-proclaimed darwinism in the light of your evident fatalism and see if any thoughts emerge.
A double edged sword which makes us squander FINITE ressources just for the fun of "entrepeneurship" and technical "creativity".
Because your genes don't seem to have imparted the capacity for rational thought doesn't mean I should conclude that the majority of humans are in the same boat.
The pot calling the kettle black.
You don't seem too be much favored by your genes as rational thought is concerned.
Nevertheless would you mind to argue ad rem instead of ad hominem?
That is, argue about HOW learning, creativity and entrepeneurship turn finite ressources into cornucopia?
You might spend some time putting your self-proclaimed darwinism in the light of your evident fatalism and see if any thoughts emerge.
YOU might spend some time learning about darwinism before darwinism gets you!
FWIW: You're probably just wasting your effort arguing with him, and probably raising your blood pressure to boot. Some people are just are not worth it.
> Toilforoil and says: "Why you dumb asses. Here is all you have to do. Change the types of crops you grow and convert to drip irrigation and all your problems would be solved"
For your reference (if you were not already aware): Drip irrigation has its problems too. For one, the tubes are only good for about three seasons before they become hoplessly clogged. The tubes are are made using petroleum as feedstock to boot. Drip irrigation also can degrade the soil because it promotes the build up of salt in top soil when well water is used because there is insufficient water to flush out the salt. It also isn't cheap, and few farmers in india would be able to afford the costs.
Slaphappy, I have no idea what projections you are referring to. I even clicked on [parent] and that did not give me a clue. So please copy and paste, or tell us who you are calling a strawman. I might disagree with you and I might not but I do not know what text you are replying to. But no one expects the population to grow forever. In fact the 9 billion max you are talking about is nothing but projections by demographers. Based on what is happening to the environment and oil reserves, the population is not likely to get anywhere 9 billion.
Ron Patterson
Googling for "world population projection" took about 3 seconds, and came up with the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (Population Division) World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, volume III: Analytical Report, whose second paragraph starts off with:
"In these projections, world population peaks at 9.22 billion in 2075."
So I suspect the answer is these projections.
But please try to google that and tell me who is the strawman Slaphappy was referring to and what was his projections?
Ron Patterson
There is also this summary article by demographer Philip Longman, whose concern is that an abrupt, natural, decline in world population beginning about 2075 will entail serious problems:
http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20040501faessay83307/phillip-longman/the-global-baby-bust.html
Rationality means among many things not bothering about moot points.
an abrupt, natural, decline in world population beginning about 2075 will entail serious problems
Don't worry, ANOTHER abrupt, natural (or not...), decline in world population will have happened much before 2075.
Self-proclaimed Seadragon
The only purpose these projections serve is to get hefty salaries for a bunch of bozo's with academic degrees. Want to know how many times these projections have changed over the past 20 years? Not so long ago (5 years?) it was 12 billion by 2050, equally moronic. No-one can predict the weather more than 4 days in advance, to any reliable degree. too many variables.
And still, my opposable digits tell me to listen to Richard Duncan. At least he has tried to do the best he could.
And no-one has proven him wrong as far as I can tell. Except for himself, when fine-tuning.
This is actually an interesting trend. The projections are repeatedly revised downward. There are many reasons for this (success of school lunch programs in the developing world is probably high on the list), but the projections are not random scribblings, any more than your precious peak oil is.
Yes, things can change, but the earth is a big ship, and it takes a long time to turn. Barring nuclear war or the total elimination of disease in the next few years, the result in 2050 will probably be fairly close to the projections, if not below (given the history of downward revisions).
UN projections.
Was referring to this line "No, we are deep into overshoot but still having more babies but are at the same time reducing the world's carrying capacity."
You're right that I misread this as one of the standard "The population will grow forever until we all die" arguments, which it only borders on.
Basically, unless you can demonstrate a problem with less than 2x current population, then it isn't a problem. I'm not saying that there aren't to many people, but rather that this whole "well, exponential growth until the year 2980 and even the Uranium will be used up..." nonsense is not viable.
It is pretty easy to see how overshoot and collapse happens. A town has a limited water supply. Population increases until the limit is reached. Instead of restricting population growth, the town starts using oil to ship water in from somewhere else and the population grows past the limit. Then oil gets expensive, and suddenly there is not enough water to go around.
This edition of the text has overshoot as a major focus. It is worth a read.
Anyway, doesn't matter. This does indeed happen if the town grows forever, and the only limitation on the town's growth is its water supply. A very unique situation indeed, perhaps true in some (very arid) places with rather unique family structures, but certainly not the rule.
As this premise has two parts, there are two problems with it.
- endless growth. According to the numbers, not going to happen. In addition, there's something deeply disturbing about projecting current trends far into the future without a truly compelling reason for their continuation. People are always tempted to do this, "if life expectancy keeps increasing at the present rate, then by 2188 people will be immortal..." might be a true statement, but that's quite a big "if" in there.
- The only (or even primary) limit to our currently society is our supply of oil. This just doesn't seem to be the case. For instance, why have we not grown faster then while oil was cheap? If that was our primary limitation, it was no limitation at all for decades past, so what was the "real" limitation? Basically, this is another way of saying "without oil, society cannot continue.", unfortunately, I just don't buy it. Societies large and small existed long before oil, and very technologically advanced societies exist now that use a fraction of the oil used by other (also technologically advanced) societies. There just doesn't appear to be much connection between society and oil, so why imply one when it isn't clear from the data?
Basically, it all boils down to this. A mathematician who reaches an absurd conclusion therefore surmises that his premise was faulty. This is perhaps the primary means of proving anything in math. Why should we be any different? When you get a far out conclusion, you know that either your conclusion or your premise is wrong, given that you have every reason to doubt the conclusion (it does after all seem very different from "the norm"), it seems foolhardy to accept it unless your premise seems unimpeachable.To put it still another way, how is it logically consistent to argue that the future will not be like the present (the conclusion) while simultaniously arguing that the future WILL be like the present (the premise)? If the conclusion is valid, then at some point, the world must transition to somethign that is very different from the present, why would your assumptions survive such a transition? This leap can be made (gravity will still work tomorrow...), but it takes some real evidence to make a convincing case of it.
Just my thoughts.