The Oil Drum | DrumBeat: September 6, 2006

303 comments on DrumBeat: September 6, 2006

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HongKong Trader on September 6, 2006 - 9:55pm

I don't really see what we learn from this afterall then???

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Roberto on September 7, 2006 - 5:55am

Well, for each region I have made two plots. The first one gives you an estimated URR and the second one gives a rough idea of how reliable it is. For the world case the second plot tells you that URR=1663GB is very unreliable. So that's what we learn. It is important to know when you shouldn't trust your forecasts and when you should.

Of the four plots I have posted, the estimated US URR has stabilized for years, maybe increasing slightly. This tells you that the estimate is quite robust. Mexico has just stabilized at peak year. South Arabia is a very bad case, the estimate is highly unreliable. UK has stabilized recently.

My next project will be to compare HL with this method. I think that we rely to much in the HL, and it is important to have an alternative to compare.

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303 comments on DrumBeat: September 6, 2006

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