307 comments on DrumBeat: September 7, 2006
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307 comments on DrumBeat: September 7, 2006
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Historical evidence suggests that's not true.
Per-capita energy consumption in the US hasn't changed over the last 25 years (http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/tablee1c.xls), so the US uses only 60% as much energy per (chained-2000) dollar of GDP as it did in 1980 (http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/tablee1p.xls).
i.e., the US has seen roughly 65% per-capita GDP growth with zero growth in per-capita energy use.
Even world per-capita energy consumption is only up 10% in the last 25 years (http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/tablee1c.xls), despite much faster growth in real per-capita GDP, so it's not as if the increased energy efficiency in the US has (primarily) come at the expense of vastly greater energy use elsewhere.
Of course, that's not to say Peak Oil doesn't represent a serious problem; obviously, it does. But the number and scope of problems it does threaten should be identified and examined as clearly as possible, and, fortunately, it is not the case that economic growth requires energy consumption growth.
" But the number and scope of problems it does threaten should be identified and examined as clearly as possible, and, fortunately, it is not the case that economic growth requires energy consumption growth." (my stress)
Again, excuse me, but I believe your historical evidence is just another semantic to make a very grim situation look somewhat palatable. I think the evidence is to the contrary, namely, that economic growth, in the modern financial sense, is predicated on increased energy consumption. Everything that enables our economies to "grow" is based on having more available energy.
Also, I cannot concieve of a situation where decreased energy consumption could lead to a growth based economy, in the fashion that we have been accustomed to.
What matters is absolute growth not per capita.
Of course, you're only talking about the US--the most wasteful society on earth, not that hard for us to cut some of our totally wasteful energy expenditures and recycle that through "efficiency"... Of course, global energy consumption per capita had to be rising over the last 150 years since the discovery of crude oil--and as you cite, over the last 25 years with 10% increase per capita. Maybe you could find statistical anomalies within that graph and point them out.
You also fail to realize that through energy arbitrage, so to speak, our economy's energy consumption has been displaced and "globalized". Now factories in China and the rest of the newly industrialized world use tons of energy that is not officially "counted" by your US DOE data.
Also, during the last 25 years efficiency has rapidly developed, but is starting to hit a wall.
One can only make the internal combustion engine so efficient before it must be replaced with something new (costly,/long-timeline) or with another fuel (unlikely/grain based ethanol is a swindle).
My point about JP is still simply what it initially was... That even with increased efficiency you still need absolute gains annually (with required population growth) in order for financial markets to function properly. The system just doesn't work otherwise, no matter how hard one can close their eyes and imagine that everything is gonna be A-OK in a no energy growth global economy.
We'll see, time will tell.
Based on what evidence do you believe that?
Yes, it's surprising (at least to me) and a little counter-intuitive that per-capita GDP has gone up so much despite per-capita energy consumption going up so little (or not at all), but that is the fact of the matter. Accordingly, our theories should be based on what we observe, not on what we believe.
It happened in the US from 1979 through 1983.
Obviously, that's not saying it will happen, but that does suggest that it can happen, so it might be an option worth looking at.
(Keep in mind also that you're pushing a bit of a false dichotomy; I was just talking about lack of growth, rather than outright decline.)
Absolutely. There are two reasons I've been talking about per-capita consumption:
First, my point was really pretty simple: economic growth without growth in energy consumption is possible - at least theoretically - since historical evidence shows us that a group (e.g., 100M Americans) can have large growth in GDP while having no growth in energy consumption.
Second, demographic trends suggest that this may be achievable in practice. The West - the world's major energy consumer - has a rapidly-falling population growth rate, and will reach no population growth in the medium term. What that means is that the challenge of maintaining no overall growth in energy consumption is relatively modest for the West as a whole - about a 0.5% decrease in per-capita consumption per year - and it will get easier as time progresses, since the growth rate will get lower (all other things being equal, which of course they won't be).
I haven't been arguing that it will happen, should happen, or even necessarily can happen; what I've been arguing is that evidence does not support the claim that it can not happen, so more investigation is needed.
No, I addressed that explicitly, as the above quote shows.
Interesting. What is your evidence for this?
That it "makes sense" does not mean that it's true.
What is your evidence for this?
The system did work otherwise, from (for example) 1979 to 1983 in the US. Stock markets even kept going up (although the S&P500 had a crash in 1981/82, it was still higher even at the trough).
In some ways, that illustrates my overall point: there are variety of "common wisdom" claims that people assert, and those claims typically make quite a lot of sense, but those claims may well be false.
Without evidence - hard, factual evidence - to support a claim, it's very difficult to tell what's true and what's urban myth.
So I'm trying to provide some historical and quantifiable evidence regarding some of these claims, and - having no personal preference for whether these claims turn out to be true or not - I'm pushing the conclusions that the data support. That is my overall point.