The Oil Drum

Seismic exploration and contract drillers/equipment rental companies, pipeline constructors and most field service companies in general (onshore and off) are the first companies to drop rates and they often experience severe losses during downturn years.  The reason there's only a very limited number of offshore drilling rigs is that they are tremendously expensive to maintain, especially when they are not being used. If the majors would pay more attention to long term needs for production and reserve replacement, they could more evenly distribute exploration and drilling work loads over the downturn years and take advantage of significantly reduced rates. I suspect the reason they don't is that their shareholders won't accept high expenditures during downturns and that their profit does not depend too much on the service market rates.  The majors simply pay the rates and pass the higher costs on.  The public continues to buy gasoline when the sales price is high or low, so there's really no collective incentive for the majors to optimize expenditures over the long term.

I can't tell you how many collegues left the oil business during the oil market crash in the 80s to make orange juice for the Coca Cola Co, etc.  In 1985 I worked for 3 service companies in Houston and each went broke during that same year.  Nobody with any brains stayed in the business.  Oil compaines paid a massive cost in loss of experience, which in my opinion, has never been recovered.  In 1986 after I couldn't pay my mortgage for 6 months, I left the USA for South America, Saudi Arabia, Asia and Europe, where I find  there is a much longer term view of corporate strategic needs, so they tend to hang on to experienced people rather than cut the higher cost workers at first opportunity, as does USA Corp.  Now with Peak Oil coming on, I'm average age+2, and I only see a limited time to continue in this business myself. I certainly can't see much of a future for any new graduate getting into this now.  Its going to be a few busy years then a quick run off a very high cliff.  So, for now, I'm as busy as I want to be, I just raised my day rate, and I'm working on a deal to move to a completely unrelated industry to build what may the largest plant to be constructed of its type.  I don't have a habit of looking back and I am budgeting a massive alternative energy feasibility study for the new plant.  If I don't find it, it may not get built, but then again, It'll be close to Venezuela.