The Oil Drum

29 comments on Tuesday Acronym Open Thread...

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ClintB on February 7, 2006 - 10:08pm

Slackers / Peak oil burnout - This board isn't keeping up. Here we have a conference in Houston, the oil capitol of the world, today, 2-7-06, sponsored by CERA, making incredible claims, which you can get by an appropriate Google - here's one:

http://www.finfacts.com/irelandbusinessnews/publish/article_100047805.shtml

"101.5 million by the end of the decade"

Snip:

Thanks to a combination of higher prices, increased exploration and production spending, and improved technology, oil supplies are poised to grow much faster than they have in recent years. Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA), a respected energy consultant, sees 20 or more major new fields coming on line each year through 2010. Altogether those fields could boost worldwide production capacity 15%, from 87.9 million barrels per day to 101.5 million by the end of the decade, CERA estimates. As a result, supply should exceed demand by 7 million bbl. per day, a huge leap from the current cushion of 1 million bbl. That should take pressure off prices. "OPEC countries have the potential, and [most] are increasing production," says Peter Jackson, a CERA researcher. "Non-OPEC production has increased at quite a lick compared to the 1990s."'

WTF?

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ClintB on February 7, 2006 - 10:23pm

I guess we'll have to wait for Chris Schreblonski, Colin Campbell, and Matt Simmons to respond to this conference...hurry, please

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step back on February 8, 2006 - 2:51am

ClintB,
Good find.
Here's the twisted words from CERA

A field-by-field analysis of global oil production and development shows the world is [1] not running out of oil in the near- or medium-term, and a large increase in the availability of [2] unconventional oils will expand global liquid hydrocarbons capacity by as much as one-fourth in the next ten years, Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA), testified to a U.S. House of Representatives subcommittee .last December
"We see no evidence to suggest a peak before 2020, [3] nor do we see a transparent and technically sound analysis from another source that justifies belief in an imminent peak," CERA Senior Consultant and Director of Global Oil and Gas Resources Robert Esser testified before a House Energy and Air Quality Subcommittee hearing on Understanding the Peak Oil Theory. "It will be a number of decades into this century before we get to an inflexion point that will [4] herald the arrival of an `undulating plateau' of global hydrocarbon production capacity," Esser said.
Expanding Sources
CERA projects that world oil production capacity - including crude oil, condensate, natural gas liquids (NGLs), oil sands, gas-to-liquids (GTL), [5]and other sources - has the potential to rise from 87 million barrels per day (mbd) in 2005 to as much as 108 mbd by 2015, with further growth in capacity continuing after that point.
"A detailed new audit of our own analysis and the enormous scale of reserve upgrades in existing fields, confirmed by the most extensive and complete databases on field production - [6]the proprietary databases of IHS, of which CERA is now part - contradicts those who believe that peak oil is imminent," Esser testified.

And here is your secret decoder ring code book:

[1] "Running out of oil" -very true, as long as there is one drop left somewhere, we have not "run out". See how truthful we are?

[2] "unconventional oils" --good thing we are counting Omega 3 fish oils

[3] they don't know what's underground either --gee that makes your position (CERA's) really strong (especially if you get to conveniently ignore Hubbert's curve and the fact that he was right)

[4] imagery of blowing trumpets and waving flags ("herald" and "undulate"), the word of God, it comes only from CERA's lips and their number [6] "proprietary" databases

[5] "other sources" --this covers the yet to be discovered Philosopher's Stone which some same say is a Zero Point Energy source

Remember kids, this is a SECRET decoder ring. Don't let your friends see it.