The Oil Drum

121 comments on No conclusions, just the January numbers and some concern

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Dave Cohen on February 8, 2006 - 3:57am

Couldn't agree more with you OIL CEO but Russian reserves and their production levels are conflated--one can't post about the one without posting about the other. They are the 2nd biggest producer in the world. Since Westexas has thrown out the gauntlet and says that they are about to crash big time soon--this means that non-OPEC production is crashing soon--I find it necessary to do the post. I would not talk about their reserves without also talking about their near-term (next 5 years to 10 years) production capabilities and beyond.

Even ExxonMobil admits a non-OPEC peak by 2010. Russia represents almost 20% of that daily production. We all really need to get as clear as possible about this. It affects the peak in a big way. It has an effect on Stuart's "long slow squeeze". It is the most important question affecting near-term peak oil conditions I know of (outside the possibility that Saudi Arabian production just might crash as in Matt Simmons' predictions). I believe as of now that their production capabilities are hampered by internal political & economic policies although their actual URR may be quite robust. But this is a different question than saying that they simply have little recoverable oil to produce--which is the position Westexas has taken.

I do appreciate your concerns.

best, Dave

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Oil CEO on February 8, 2006 - 4:09am

I concur.

As you said - and this is extremey important, people -

"We all really need to get as clear as possible about this."

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Halfin on February 8, 2006 - 5:52pm

Here is the EIA graph of monthly Russian production changes:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Slide12.gif

These are not production levels but changes in production (I'm not sure if they are from the year before or the previous month).

Note that if you had looked at the graph in July 05 (before the last 6 months' readings) and extrapolated forward you would have expected production growth to continue to decline and turn into a production decline (bars going below the axis instead of above). You would probably not have anticipated the turnaround starting in August with production increasing faster again.

It's hard to predict the future, and drawing graphs and extending lines forward is a risky proposition.

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Nick Rouse on February 8, 2006 - 6:32pm

It must be growth over a year. If it were month by month growth the total growth would be the sum of the bars which I make about a 24mbpd increase, 28% of world production.