The Oil Drum

80 comments on A little more illustrative info on Russia

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Sunlight on February 10, 2006 - 11:19am

All this stuff on Russia is great and yes I have noticed that finally the MSM is beginning to pick up on declines in Burgan and Cantarell.

On the other hand, have you folks noticed the collapse in natural gas prices since December? After hitting a high of $15.57/mmbtu in New York December 13 natural gas is now selling for $7.35/mmbtu as I write. Seems like warm weather (perhaps driven by inceases of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration) has put a large dent in demand for this winter's heating season. And if current weather patterns hold, demand for natural gas may grow less slowly than many respected analysts, including Matthew Simmons, anticipated, at least for North America. (As I noted the other day, with the melting of polar ice and its effect on the Gulf Stream, the reverse may be happeing in Europe.)

I'm not advocating either complacency or air pollution, just saying that North American gas consumers seem to have caught a break this year, and if they are lucky the break might extend another year or two.

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Nate Hagens on February 10, 2006 - 12:04pm

we are still running flat out on natural gas and coal supply. the problem, as you mention is demand. our supply is severley limited but we just had the warmest january on record. nat gas futures mkt are STARTING to price in global warming - difference between winter and summer peaks is smallest % that I ever remember. (Ill have to check if its a record).

Remember, at peak in summer, 45% of our electricity is from nat gas - so a hot summer could mean higher prices before next winter. Only 5 of our 21 TCF annually is used for home heating...