The Oil Drum

61 comments on Uncertainties About Russian Reserves and Future Production

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DaveyM on February 15, 2006 - 11:28pm

THANK YOU for the great post! I know from my own feeble attempts to get a handle on the Russian oil landscape how difficult it is to find good info. You just gave me a bucket full of great links as well.

For anyone interested, I recently posted an historical account of Russian oil production and future prospects on my blog: http://oilpolitics.blogspot.com/. The reserve/production numbers are mostly from Grace's book Russian Oil - Current Status and Outlook.

As for the Russian political/economic climate going forward, I am relatively optimistic. Putin made his point with Khordokovsky (that oligarchs and politics shouldn't mix) and the investment climate in Russia is slowly improving. Putin himself has most often taken a middle ground between the oligarchs and siloviki (former KGB harliners, nationalists) and will likely pursue a 'managed capitalism' for the remainder of his term. This will help bring IOC's back into the country (in fact, I thought I read somewhere that Lukoil was about to pick a couple of foreign partners for one of the Timan-Pechora projects). The question is then who replaces him. Gazprom Chairman Dmitry Medvedev, who was recently promoted to first deputy Prime Minister (just before the Ukraine shut-off, go figure. . . ), is an early favorite. The other primary contender (also recently promoted to a Prime Minister slot) is Sergei Ivanov. Ivanov is the champion of the siloviki in the Kremlin, although he is moderate for that camp. While Putin would likely prefer Medvedev to Ivanov, the former, unlike Ivanov, does not have a natural constituency in the electorate.

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Dave Cohen on February 16, 2006 - 6:58pm

I read your post on the oilpolitics blog and it's very good. I wasn't so much focused on the history of Russian production as you are. I recommend it highly for those who want more information about Russia.

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DaveyM on February 18, 2006 - 5:18pm

Thanks much. I'm going to try to post increasingly on geopolitical topics related to PO. There are so many vexing issues to game out, however, I am a bit daunted by the task.