The Oil Drum | Suicide attack on Saudi refinery thwarted

92 comments on Suicide attack on Saudi refinery thwarted

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joule on February 24, 2006 - 11:50am

Not to worry! Our economist friends have repeatedly assured us that the Invisible Hand of the market place will always ensure that there is enough energy available to provide the amount we need/want.

(Note that I deliberately refrained from using the terms 'supply' and 'demand'. That was to preempt a comment from some literal-minded economist that, by definition, supply always equals demand, as determined by price. While technically this is true, it gives me little comfort to know that if supplies are cut to say a third of what they are now, a gasoline price of $20/gal will bring the demand right in line with the supply.)

Notice that, of late, energy supply problems have had very little to do with geology and a lot to do with a level of human conflict that appears to be getting more virulent.

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louGrinzo on February 24, 2006 - 11:59am

Can we PLEASE stop painting all economists (like me) with such an absurdly broad and wildly inaccurate brush? PLEASE???

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joule on February 24, 2006 - 12:02pm

Sorry! I know it was a cheap shot, but I just couldn't resist :-)

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LevinK on February 24, 2006 - 12:16pm

IMO a good economist must have a real world experience or at least same more detailed knowledge about areas outside pure economics. Good candidates are management, politics, engineering or anything that can confront you with the realities outside your cabinet, which are pretty messy as a general rule.

This helps not to take yourself and the economic theories much too seriously. Yes, there is a whole lot of truth in them, but the slippery part of the economic theories is that in some circumstances they are 100% valid, in some are 50% valid and in others may even produce disasters if applied.

That's why a feel a little bit uncomfortable with the term "economist" (I have also graduated economics). Besides the fact that there is no such profession it somehow detaches the set of problems they solve from reality (ok, may be it is my perception only). It puts it in line with other pretty much detached terms like "The Economy", "The Market", "The Invisible Hand" etc. etc.

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louGrinzo on February 25, 2006 - 10:51am

I agree completely, especially with the part about the need for real world experience. I've worked as a programmer and software designer, technical writer, computer consultant, woodworker (running my own business), and porn star. (OK, not so much on that last one.) And those experiences really have done a lot to shape my views of which parts of economic theory hold water and which ones leak like a sieve.

I'm convinced that many of the Evil Economists we see making absurd "don't worry, be happy" claims about the magic of the market are the ones who've never held a job where economics was a contact sport and not a pleasant, easily graphed and analyzed abstraction.

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triphop on February 24, 2006 - 3:42pm

So with a tightly supplied market, the ability to withstand production shortfalls is diminished . Hence bumpy plateau. The degree of oversupply gives the amount of wiggle at the plateau.

So the question that needs to be asked is: Which gives first. The supply is on a geologic curve driven by an unsustainable world economy.

Leaving AGW aside.

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odograph on February 24, 2006 - 7:53pm

An ego rich field has to expect some blowback ;-)

I'm reading "Fooled by Randomness" now and have to admit that I am enjoying the comments dropped about economists.

I know economists are not all mad, but really after spending a near century believing the unbelievable ... something had to give. Imagine living in this world and believing in rational actors (or even that markets average out as if we were)!

Ah well, given the new move to experiments and brain scans I expect the field to build some respect.

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