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72 comments on Close, but no cigar

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Fletcher on February 14, 2006 - 7:06pm Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
Stuart's lamentable absence of a week reminded me of another absent Stuart in Julie Andrew's reading of Stuart Little: specifically the part when Stuart has been rolled up in a shade, the family frantically looks for Stuart even calling down the mouse hole: "Stuuuuuuuuuuuuuaaartttt." I, for one, treasure his clear and sensible explication of the data.

It is interesting to put these numbers of the plateau in the context of Deffeye's recent postulation that Peak happened on December 16.  Whether it's December 16 or May 2005 will seem relatively unimportant in short order.

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Biologyfool on February 14, 2006 - 7:14pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Stuart and Deffeye aren't measuring the same thing for the peak.  Stuart is looking at peak production while Deffeye is defining the peak at 1/2 of the total possible production.
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odograph on February 14, 2006 - 9:01pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
You guys familiar with "fuzzy logic?"

I think the math is all good (and thanks to all who work so hard at it!), but I think we can step back and with a "fuzzy" eye say that the math, the news, and crazy things like the State of the Union address ... are telling us "peak oil" is (fuzzy logic) true, right now.

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solarfan on February 15, 2006 - 2:22pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
..which I believe is another way of saying that Stuart is looking at actual production data peak, while Deffeyes is talking about the smooth curve-fitted peak via Hubbert.
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Luis de Sousa on February 15, 2006 - 4:45am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Deffeys numbers are on Conventional Oil only, Stuart has been working with 'All Liquids'. Comparing both can be tricky.
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Don Sailorman on February 15, 2006 - 11:34am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Recall at the end of the book that Stuart is undecided as to which direction in which to go. The book tells us clearly that there is more than one good direction.

DUETs, Deep Universal Eternal Truths are more often to be found in the works of great literature than in the works of engineers or scientists. Equally great truths are to be found in CHARLOTTE'S WEB, and THE TRUMPET OF THE SWAN as in STUART LITTLE.

For my macroeconomics class I used to assign "Pride and Prejudice" and have them give me a macroeconomic analysis of England c. 1800 based on their reading. Also, I often would read a poem to begin class.

How can we live without reciting aloud at least one poem a day? (Not very well.)

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