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96 comments on 2005 Exploration Round-Up

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Bubba on March 1, 2006 - 1:44pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Let's start with the easy stuff - the demand side of the energy balance equation.  For example - it was through some of your writing E-P (plus a $3150 tax credit) that I decided to trade my old 18 mpg car in for a 45 mpg Prius.
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Engineer-Poet on March 1, 2006 - 3:44pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Darn it, there goes my head swelling up again.
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Dave Cohen on March 1, 2006 - 6:17pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Oh, no! That's all we need. I thought things were bad enough.

best, Dave

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louGrinzo on March 1, 2006 - 5:18pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Bingo.  We'll see major growth in energy conservation and diversification: Improving building insulation, upgrading climate control equipment, keeping cars in tune, compact fluorescent lights, add-on heating units (like wood pellet stoves) to let people use "hybrid heating", consumer-side solar and wind, etc.

All the people who bitch about how "people won't conserve energy" are in for a shock.  The major shift in the US car market away from trucks is just the tip of the tip of the iceberg.

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Dave Cohen on March 1, 2006 - 6:08pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Lou, I think the issue here is how long it will take to switch out the vehicle inventory. Estimates I've seen say on the order of 15 years. Of course, that might speed up a bit if the prices go skyhigh and the more efficient vehicle supply can meet rapidly increasing demand.

As far as people "bitching" about "people won't conserve energy" goes, I agree--what else are they going to do? But this too will take some transition time. It won't happen overnight. I take it you're not a big believer in Jevon's Paradox.

But geopolitical oil shocks are the wildcard. And anyone with a functioning brain and a little imagination will have little trouble thinking up disasters that could happen. If that Al-Qaeda attempt at Abqaiq hadn't been such an amateur job, this week would be very different than it is.

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Engineer-Poet on March 1, 2006 - 9:45pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
It occurs to me that there's a big difference between "registered" and "on the road".

This is highly significant, because all the old econoboxen used as winter cars could easily become primary vehicles overnight.  The guzzling trucks that people commute in today could wind up parked most of the time.  What difference does it make if a vehicle is registered, if it isn't driven?  Reverse the current vehicle preference, and fuel consumption would fall without any change in what's "on the road" measured by registrations.

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TJ on March 1, 2006 - 8:58pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Maybe, maybe not.  The industrial side may just bag it, like fertilizer manufacturers, and offshore everything.  On the individual consumer side it's hard to see where they're going to get the money in a time of declining incomes and rising prices.
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Jack Greene on March 2, 2006 - 12:26am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Good move. Enjoy!
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