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101 comments on Cigar Now?

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GilaMonster on March 3, 2006 - 10:23pm Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
Stuart, this is off subject somewhat, but recently I read that the Chinese graduate 10 engineering students for every one that we do here in the US. I would assume that India's numbers are similar.  With our country's supply side approach to energy, our resistance to improve fuel economy, our resistance to conserve, our unmitigating belief in the non-negotiability of the "American way of Life", aren't we in a sense tacitly forcing the Chinese, etc., to outperform us technologically; afterall, they can't step back now?  Consider that Japan importants 98% of it's oil.  That austerity motivated the country to R&D and produce hybrid vehicles.  Japan took PNGV to heart.  Can we afford to finish second in automotive and energy technologies? Is cheap oil like cheap perfume?  
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Jack on March 3, 2006 - 10:59pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I am sceptical of these claims as it is hard to count and compare engineers like eggs or oranges. A chemical engineer with a master's degree from a top university is not the same as a structural enegineer from a Chinese two year associate-type program, especially when the issue is technology development. This link explains this well:

http://www.danieldrezner.com/archives/002380.html

Further, I am not sure that the number of enegineers, even if comparable, has much to do with the creation of technology. India and Russia have probably always had more engineers that the US has had. But the US has led technology development because the country has a system that fosters and rewards it. This remains true.

There is a backdrop at TOD where engineers ridicule economists and economists keep quiet and roll their eyes. I am neither, but I do think the engineer worship here is misplaced.

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Don Sailorman on March 4, 2006 - 12:53am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Jack,
I have news.

Only reason U.S. stays on top is because of VSA (Very Smart Asians).

Thirty-five years ago I noticed this, and my background is in economics, astronomy and some other disciplines.

Yes, the U.S. is #1.

And why?

Because we recruit Very Smart Asians.

That is it, in a nutshell.

BTW, have you looked at the percentage of our engineers who were born in the U.S.?????

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Stuart Staniford on March 4, 2006 - 1:01am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Certainly this is true in Silicon Valley. Not just Asians - Europeans, Middle Easterners, Russians, ... But certainly lots of folks from both China and the subcontinent. And generally they are the brightest of their respective countries.

Wild speculation: the US high-tech industry recruits like this, but the US auto industry doesn't...

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Engineer-Poet on March 4, 2006 - 2:05am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
There are a substantial number of Asians working in the Tier 1 suppliers, some in the US and some offsite.
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Jack on March 4, 2006 - 2:44am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I think this line of discussion supports my point. The US has a favorable environment for technology development and hence attracts those that have the right skills. Asian (and even European) engineers come to Silicon valley (for example) because they have access to ideas, financing and a business environment that allows them to enjoy the fruits of their success.
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light299 on March 4, 2006 - 11:29am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Interestingly, I heard on T.V. the other day that a radio station in India posed the question, "If you had the means to choose to live in America, or stay in India, which would you choose?" I forget the exact percent, but the reason this made the MSM is because the majority of Indians decided they would rather stay. As standards of living rise in other countries, people are less likely to give up their homeland for a chance at sucess in a strange place. Also it does not help when the majority of the world does not have a favorable view of America or its leadership...
In other words, don't expect any German scientists comming to America to build the energy solution that will end the next world war, we already owe them for the last time...
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Don Sailorman on March 4, 2006 - 2:21pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
In the interests of historical accuracy, we have Adolph Hitler to thank for the physicists who built the atomic bomb for us: Many of the top physicists were Jewish refugees.

Indeed, one big reason Nazi Germany never put much in the way of resources into developing an atomic bomb is that its development would have had to have been based on "Jewish physics." Thus, any project based on those politically incorrect physics was impossible or practially impossible to fund.

Talk about irony.

BTW, yes, I am aware of some of the fictions published as histories that explain how it was the sweet humanitarian instincts of certain German physicists that suppressed development of the bomb under Hitler. If you choose to believe those accounts, I have a bridge in Brooklyn that is available at a bargain price . . . .

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Jack on March 4, 2006 - 3:36pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I don't doubt that improving economic conditions in India are helping a larger percentage of its population see better opportunities at home - or that Asian countries in general are competitive at a level far beyond that of the past.

The Indian radio station survey story is interesting, but allegorical and not statistically significant. Your claim "it does not help when the majority of the world does not have a favorable view of America or its leadership." is pure opinion.

The fact remains that the US has hosted the world best incubator for innovation over the last few decades. I don't believe that this has changed, but am willing to listen to actual evidence to the contrary.

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Nick Rouse on March 4, 2006 - 5:20pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Whether or not the fact that the majority of the world has an unfavourable view of America hinders America's technical progress may be a matter of opinion but the fact of this unfavourable view exists has been borne out by many polls such as the Pew global attitudes project. India does still have a positive view of America and although there has been some recovery since the depths of international unpopularity in 2003 the overall view is still strongly negative and extremely negative in Islamic countries.
In the UK the percentage with a favourable attitude has dropped from 83% in 2000 to 55% now behind China viewed favourably by 65%.
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Gets IT on March 5, 2006 - 7:42pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Here's your evidence.  Me.  American engineer, living in Europe and working when and where I want for ample amounts of Euros or GB Pounds.  No US Dollars please.  Let all the Patels at Brown and Root have all of those they want.  I know PLEANTY of engineers that will not work in the USA.  I know PLEANTY of people that will not live in the USA.  It ain't what it used to be.  Most of "us" think its pretty much degenerated into an antiterrorist paranoid police state anyway.  Who needs passing the suitcases into 3 X-ray machines in the same terminal?  Wake up man.  

Oil companies have been well into brain drain since 1985.  Most of all their best engineers have retired a long time ago.  Last of the good ones were on the way out when I started 30 years ago.  Most now can't even write a specification, never mind get anything designed and built.  I left the USA in 1986.  I know another American chemical engineer that left in 1991.  Worked in Saudi up to 3 years ago.  He went back to the USA.  NOW he just left the States last week for Qatar.  You've lost the best and can't even hold on to them when they do try to go back.  We say, "Let the tax accounts rip up your railroads."

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Gets IT on March 5, 2006 - 7:21pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Don, I think its more like the story that came out a week ago or so.  Remember the one about tearing up the railroad tracks?  When the US starts tearing up railroad tracks because some tax guy says they'll save money, what hope do you really think there is for engineers to work in the USA?  The large corps basically decided to pay those guys a lot of money for that advice instead of making better more economical trains.  The last engineer I hired in the US couldn't speak english.  Now everybody's wondering why their pipelines and platforms are busted from Tampa to Brownsville.  Coincidence?  Do you like all the "engineering" that goes into the cheap crap you're buying from China?  I have to make 1 to 5 modifications in everything I buy from China to get it to a useable condition or to keep it working for more than 2 weeks.  Basically, because the USA would rather pay accountants and tax guys to tell them they can't afford to build anything anymore.  And what's the point if USA project managers to ignore O-ring and insulation tile and leeve failure warnings.  Rule of Economics 101.  When you lower the price you pay for engineers, you get what you get.  If they're American or foreign makes little difference.
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Don Sailorman on March 6, 2006 - 1:39pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Agreed. I have found it is not only a matter of pay but of respect. Engineers--among whom are quite a few people whom I admire and like and sail with--get little or no respect. Who gets the girls? Lawyers. Tax accountants. Brokers. Casino owners.

Who keeps the boats sailing and the fuel moving? Engineers, obviously. Perhaps it is time for a mutiny: The ONLY way the Titanic could have been saved is if the Chief Engineer had led a mutiny against the deranged captain, who was ruining magnificent brand-new steam engines by running them flat out for a speed record instead of breaking them in properly.

I rarely advocate mutiny. Most mutinies fail. And engineers do not know how to organize, but when the leadership is deranged and the life boats are too few, you are out of good choices.

(O.K., personally, I'm building a raft and encouraging my friends to do likewise.)

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Hugo Chavez on March 6, 2006 - 2:09pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Ever see 'The Sand Pebbles' with Steve McQueen? Now there was an engineer.
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Gets IT on March 6, 2006 - 5:31pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I love that movie!
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Don Sailorman on March 6, 2006 - 11:26pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I've seen "The Sand Pebbles" about twelve times, and high on my list of toys to get is a BAR like the one Steve McQueen used.

BTW, I've never known either a mad scientist or a mad engineer; both types are generally sane. However, Ted Kacicinski (the Unabomber) was one of my math TAs at UC, Berkeley. He sucked as a teacher--but then so did all of my math teachers until I finally got lucky with one guy vistiting from Annapolis and another one from some Swiss university. Mathematicians for various reasons are way more likely to flip out than engineers or scientists.

One thing I truly enjoy about being around engineers is that they can show me how to fix things. Mending is better than ending.

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Gets IT on March 7, 2006 - 1:45am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
You'd like me.  My ONLY problem is I fix things that ain't broke.  Actually, I'm doing destructive prototyping to find out how the bugger works.

The most absolute nuttiest professor I had was for (seems appropriate to mention it here, and this is really true)...  exploration geophysics.  I actually took one course in this.  He beat my relativistic modern physics prof by 7 lengths.  This guy was 73 years old (must be 103 now) with the wild white hair, square beard and everything and would ware the same  searsucker blue and white pin-striped suit every day.  He slept in his office for a good six months straight.  When he would come in to class, he'd start writing equations on the blackboard, the bell would ring and we'd leave, but he'd keep going for 3 days running.  On the 3rd day, he'd find a mistake and start rewritting all over again.  The math guys were pretty much normal, except one made me memorize all the derivative and integral formulas, of which now I only remember about 6.  Unfortunately, everything I learned about geophysics was in my soil mechanics and foundation classes (taught by civil engineering dept.).  I still dream about setting up an oscilliscope and an array of microphones to the PC and hitting an iron plate with a sledge hammer.  Supposedly it'll work if you can hit the plate hard enough to "raise the ball" to -88.  I've got the PC oscilliscope program, but can't get serious about the mic array.  Needs a sound board with too many channels.  Guess I'm not the 100% stereotypical engineer, the BAR was pretty good, but my toy of choice would have been Candice Bergen;.. OK!.. I'd take the gunboat.  

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Gets IT on March 7, 2006 - 1:49am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Damn, I'm speaking Spanish so long now, I think I can spell english words just like they sounds.  Spanish is so easy.
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Gets IT on March 6, 2006 - 5:29pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Thanks Don.  In all honesty, all us engineers appreciate that... really.  But don't confuse us with the Mad Professor(s).  Far from that.  Organization is also a great big part of engineering.  Its not just doing strange looking calculations at a desk all day. (but even calculations need to be organized) Its not the lawyers and accounts that get these petroleum projects organized and built out there in 0-8000 ft of water.  Its the Project Engineers that organize the exploration (except for the geophysicisit stuff), drilling and construction equipment selection, drilling program, FPSOs, platform construction, well testing, production equipment design and installation, the roads and drill pads onshore, control & instrumentation, communications, well control and production equipment, production engineers do the production planning and well treating (not geologists), pipeline design, pipeline installation, production and pipeline operations and refining design & construction.

I've just finished orgainzing a start-up company for production and harvesting of 500,000 Hectares of paper pulp plants, paper company administration org, paper plant conceptual design, international proj mgmt engineering dept, paper plant detailed design, company operations & maintenance org for the next 6 years for a company to be located somewhere in South America.

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Heading Out on March 4, 2006 - 1:11am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Having both visited Chinese Universities and talked with engineers in the field, I think you are falling into the habit of thinking that because things were a certain way, that they remain so.  I am aware of field experiments in wells in China that are ahead of the same development of the technology here, even though the technology was initially invented in the US.  It very much depends on which technology you are discussing, and with students around the world I suspect that the Chinese are already cherry-picking the technologies to invest in and are moving forward with them.
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Jack on March 4, 2006 - 2:49am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
HO,

I have lived in Asia for most of my adult life, so I am familiar with the issues at hand.  I disagree with the idea that China's centralized system can "cherry pick" technology winners better then the private sector. This article in Foreign Policy sheds some light on the governmnet involvement in decision-making:

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=3373&page=1

"But China's tentacles are even more securely wrapped around the economy than these figures suggest. First, Beijing continues to own the bulk of capital. In 2003, the state controlled $1.2 trillion worth of capital stock, or 56 percent of the country's fixed industrial assets. Second, the state remains, as befits a quintessentially Leninist regime, securely in control of the "commanding heights" of the economy: It is either a monopolist or a dominant player in the most important sectors, including financial services, banking, telecommunications, energy, steel, automobiles, natural resources, and transportation. It protects its monopoly profits in these sectors by blocking private domestic firms and foreign companies from entering the market (although in a few sectors, such as steel, telecom, and automobiles, there is competition among state firms). Third, the government maintains tight control over most investment projects through the power to issue long-term bank credit and grant land-use rights."

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Gets IT on March 5, 2006 - 7:06pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Thanks Jack.  Don't get out too much do you?  If it wasn't for us, you'd still be running around with a club in your hands.  WTH, maybe you are.  Get serious.  When was the last time you flew a magic carpet?  Ever drove on a interstate highway, took a train, turned on the electricity, crossed a bridge, or went up to the 12 th floor?  Do you think Don designs all this stuff?
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Jack on March 6, 2006 - 2:22pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I also walk across clean floors and am grateful for the janitor that mops them. That doesn't mean they should run the world.

I didn't say engineers aren't good or important. I just think there are more important things in the world than engineering. Look at history, we remember great leaders who create things and make changes - not the mechanics who implement them. I think a good political and economic system will produce good engineering. Good engineering can't produce good poltics or economics.

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Gets IT on March 6, 2006 - 6:05pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Well, I could just start off with this challange,

"Engineers have made changes in the world that have outlasted (many for centuries) just about any political leader's changes that YOU can name."

I don't mean to be insulting, its just that I really don't understand.  Maybe you just need to broaden your view of history, or is it just that you don't actually have knowledge about this subject.  

For every George Washing you can name, I can name a Ben Franklin, but (you know) I can't name any like Hitler and I will say Henry Ford and the Wrights changed the world more than Hitler and Ceaser put together. IMO.

Include some engineers.  Ever heard of ARCHIMEDES?  Ben Franklin?  Maybe the problem is that engineering (as we know it) just hasn't been around as long as Ceaser, so we haven't got your attention??.  Is this just because we can't tell you who invented the suspension bridge?  I view engineers as anyone who takes science and mathematics and applies the principles towards constructing practicle devices.  So, maybe you never really studied history, or only the history of political figures.. or what form of history have you ever studied?  Or just maybe you're memory's not so good.  I seem to remember for instance, Da Vinci, Galleio, Cassegrain, A. Volta, Anders Celsius, Montgolfier, Guillotin (there's one you've probably heard of), Eli Whitney, James Watt, Michael Faraday, Cyrus Hall McCormick, Bernoulli, Sir Sandford Fleming (time zones), Wright Brothers, Bell, Thomas Edison, Howard Hughes, John Stevens, Sikorski, Henry Ford, Goddard, without even trying very hard.

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Gets IT on March 6, 2006 - 6:11pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Oh ya.  Do you think Alan Greenspan is a brilliant economist and will be remembered in 200 years?  (God, I hope not.  If that'll be true, its going to be for something very very very bad.)

As a matter of curiosity, just who is on your list?

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