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Yes, the Iranians could shut down the Straights with one missile. A couple more would shut down the Saudi's. At that point, every country in the world is directly effected. Even net oil producers would be screwed: the following depression would hit them just as much.
The US wouldn't need to invade; the rest of the world would do it for them. The most likely way is assassination, bombing, and a coup. The mullahs hold the power in Iran but there are an awful lot of Iranians who hate them. Military officers freaked at such an action could rebel.
I don't think the Mullahs would last long and I think they know it. They're pretty wealthy and fat these days. It's one thing to convince a boy to seek his reward and quite another to do so yourself.
My only fear is that the cult that the President belongs to tries to bring the Mahdi back; that requires that the world be in chaos, apparently.
As far as limiting world supply goes I think they are much more likely to use al-Sadr in southern Iraq to keep the Iraqi oil off the market (and keep the Americans tied down).
My only realistic fear too. I don't admire Baby Doc Bush but I think he is backed into a corner by history and circumstance. A corner he knowingly walked into... no way he was blind to peak energy/fossil fuels. No need to kid ourselves.
Hopefully the Iranians don't really believe they "hear the voice of God" ... and hopefully Baby Doc doesn't really believe that either ("my dad (godz) kin beat up your dad (godz) anyday!).
Homo Da Saps.
The religious group he belongs to has a decidedly apocalyptic bent. The election that put him in power was carefully controlled: only approved candidates allowed. The mullahs like him. Whether they like him because he scares the bejeezus out of westerners or because they agree with him isn't clear (at least to me).
Iran holds some hefty cards and they know it.
Honestly - the God-HEARing are the most hideous and scary of all homo sapians... they turn their religions form helpful hammers that build communities into Terrible Hammers that smash skulls in their community.
Same with Mad Scientists practicing With Out the required Mother Nature's Licensing...
Beware of Global FruiCakes Claiming their Snake Oil Will Cure the Climate Blues... just as dangerous as the Distraction we call Religion for the poor sap we call Hom (IMHO)