<The geopolitics of expertise The Oil Drum A concern about Canadian gas and the oil sands>

118 comments on Saturday open thread

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westexas on March 18, 2006 - 6:04pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
In addition to Leanan's link, Simmons was interviewed in the 1/02/06 issue of Barron's making essentially the same point, but he specifically noted that the top 10 majors were predicting a 2010 peak for the North Sea.  

In regard to the North Sea HL plot, I did it myself.  It's a beautiful--perfectly linear--plot, showing a Qt of 60 Gb.  Production peaked at 52% of Qt, and it has been downhill since then.  

My point has been and is that if the engineers can be that wrong about what--compared to Russia--is a piece of cake to evaluate, why can't they be that wrong about Russia?

BTW, my prediction is that Russian oil production will be down in 2006 versus 2005, probably the start of a very severe decline in production.

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Jerome a Paris on March 18, 2006 - 8:01pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Re Russian oil production, see the two articles by Leslie Dienes at the following link:

http://www.cdi.org/russia/johnson/jrl-2004-oil.cfm

She was not very optimistic about Russia's future production, almost 2 years ago already.

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118 comments on Saturday open thread

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